Hi all,
I have enjoyed a tremendous days racing in the warm sunshine. Just a shame my punting efforts were truly dreadful. We have just one day to turn things around.
There’s plenty of racing today around the country but I have concentrated solely on York.
York Ebor Festival – Day 4
2:25 – Land Of Oz has been placed really well by Sir Mark Prescott to win four handicaps, two f them over 1m 6f but has won over further. Seems ground versatile, has won on soft and good to firm. No issues with stamina for the gelding who we haven’t probably seen the best of yet.
Just Hubert comes into the race looking for the hat trick after handicap wins at Ripon & Sandown. Prior to that he had finished third, albeit well beaten, to easy Voltigeur winner Logician at Newbury. Plenty of scope for further progress and shouldn’t be dismissed off 5lb higher. Trainer William Muir hopes he could be a Melbourne Cup horse in 2020 which shows how well regarded he is.
Verdict: The Melrose is always a competitive handicap. Land Of Oz steps up in class but probably hasn’t reached his class ceiling just yet. Just Hubert is another improver who has a better chance than the bookies odds suggest.
Land Of Oz – 10/1 @ Paddy Power
Just Hubert – 22/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
3:00 – Laurens multiple Group 1 winner is the class horse of the race but does drop back to 7f for the first time since she was 2-year-old and as Group 1 winner has to give weight to her rivals.
Sir Dancealot won the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood two starts back before disappointing at Newbury last week but wouldn’t have been suited by the soft ground. A 7f specialist he will like the return to quick ground.
Speak In Colours, showed he stays 7f when 4th to Sir Dancealot in the Lennox Stakes. He was beaten just 2 ¼ lengths at the finish and would have finished closer with a clearer run. He gets 3lb from the winner and is unexposed over the distance.
Verdict: Sir Dancealot should do much better on faster ground than he faced last Saturday in the Hungerford Stakes. However, preference is for Speak In Colours who remains unexposed over 7f and doesn’t have much to find with Sir Dancealot on their Goodwood running.
Speak In Colours – 7/1 @ Bet365
3:40 – Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
The race of the meeting and with over million pound in prize money and £600,000 on offer to the winner it’s attracting a high-class horse. The handicap is very condensed with just 8lb separating the 22 runners and plenty of contenders, as you would expect.
The claims of market leaders Withhold and the admirable King’s Advice are clear to everyone. Ben Vrackie was an eyecatcher when finishing strongly to take second on the 1m 4f Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. He then disappointed when well behind Kings Advice at Newmarket last time when sent off just 3/1. Can get behind in his races but a reproduction of his Ascot performance, off 4lb higher would see him go close. Given the excellent record of 3lb & 5lb claimers in the race Red Galileo has to be respected with Cieren Fallon taking off 5lb. He might be an 8-year-old but he showed he was no back number when beating 13 rivals over the distance at Newmarket back in June. Ran better than his final position of 8th suggests in the Northumberland Plate and meets King’s Advice on 11lb better terms here. He’s quirky but talented and if in the mood can go well.
Red Verdon & Raheen House finished 1st & 3rd in a a Group 3 over C&D last month. Both have a touch of class and there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Both should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. Raheen House has been aimed at this race all season but maybe lacks a bit of resolution at the finish compared to Red Verdon whose also double the price in the ante post betting.
Barsanti has dropped down to a tempting mark. The 7-year-old’s last win came in a Listed race at Ascot in May 2018, not so good since but hasn’t been disgraced in small fields Group/Listed company. He goes well on quick ground, all three of his turf wins coming on good to firm and goes well in a big field, having had 3 wins from 5 runs 5 placed with form figures 11212. His record at York is a very encouraging 2 wins from 4 runs 4 placed with form figures 1211. He ticks the boxes marked going, course and experience of a big field handicaps.
Raymond Tusk won a Group 2 in Italy and the end of last season and wasn’t disgraced when 2nd to Dee Ex Bee in the 2m Sagaro Stakes back in May. The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when trying to give 2lb to Crystal Ocean at Newbury on his next start. Didn’t stay in the Gold Cup but was still in contention two out. First race since Ascot but has each way claims, on ground that will suit. Of slight concern is the recent record of 4-year-old’s in the race just 1 winner from 71 runners 12 placed.
Verdict: It’s a cracker of a race that’s for sure. The poor record of 4-year-old’s in the race is a slight negative for the chances of Raymond Tusk. My two against the field at big prices are Red Verdon and Barsanti.
Red Verdon – 28/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Barsanti – 25/1 @ Sky Bet – each way (paying 8 places 1/5 odds)
4:45 – Forest Of Dean has a favourites but at 3/1 I can let him win. Society Red won over C&D last summer and all four of his career wins have come on good to firm ground. His career best RPR came over C&D in May off 2lb higher. Not the most consistent of horses as his subsequent performances have shown but he can’t confidently be ruled out on his return to York. Rise Hall represents the inform Marty Meade stable. The 4-year-old has improved with each of his four starts this season according to Racing Post Ratings and put in career best when winning at Newmarket 28-days ago. The handicapper has raised him just 3lb for his last win which could be lenient.
Verdict: Society Red has each way claims on a track that he goes well at. Rise Hall continues to improve and looks set to go close.
Rise Hall – 9/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Society Red – 33/1 @ Paddy Power (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
5:20 – Another tough handicap puzzle to solve with the added complication that it’s a race for apprentice riders.
Recon Mission won here over 6f back in June and has a good form chance but probably won’t be suited by the drying ground.
Moss Gill heads the ante post market after his short head to defeat to Pass The Vino in a big field handicap at Newmarket last month. The drop back to 5f shouldn’t be a problem for 3-year-old was runner-up over C&D in May.
Count D’orsay made a winning debut for Tim Easterby at Ripon 18-days ago. Up 7lb for that win he needs to improve again but that’s highly possible given his progressive profile. The gelding is 2lb out of the handicap but can’t be discounted from a stable that won the race in 2018 & 2016.
Verdict: Moss Gill isn’t much of a price, but this race looks ideal for him. Given Tim Easterby’s record in the race I wouldn’t put anyone off the progressive Count D’orsay.
Moss Gill – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John