York Ebor Festival – Day 1
The 4-day Ebor festival gets underway on Wednesday with a six-race card. Plenty of great racing to look forward to although I won’t be going in to heavy on the betting front today.
1:55 – A Class 2 handicap run over 5 ½ f. Stone Of Destiny & Final Venture were first & second in the 5f sprint handicap at the Shergar Cup. Only a nose separated the pair at the line and the runner-up gets a 1lb from the winner for that narrow defeat. Final Venture has often run well here over 5f and shouldn’t be far away at the finish again. However, Stone Of Destiny was finishing his race off well and might be better suited by the extra ½ f. The 5-year-old who is also qualifier from the Andrew Balding micro angle highlight in the festival guide, looks capable of another bold show. Dakota Gold won the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon on Saturday. He has a 5lb penalty to carry for that success bit was well in command at the finish that he could defy it Drops back ½ f here and the ground will be quicker than it was Ripon. A Momentofmadness won last years Portland Handicap at Doncaster over today’s distance. He’s now 4lb lower but hasn’t been in form so far this season. Well handicapped when he does return to form. Another well handicapped runner is Justanotherbottle. He was beaten just a short head in last years Goodwood Stewards Cup, off 5lb higher. Not up to that level of form on his first two starts this season but hinted at a return to his best when 5th in this seasons Stewards Cup on his last start. The slight drop in trip should suit the prominent runner. Often well backed he’s handicapped to win a sprint handicap like this
Verdict: Stone Of Destiny is capable of defying a small rise in the weights for his recent Ascot win. A Momentofmadness is now a well handicapped horse and will bounce back to form sometime. Another well handicapped horse is Justanotherbottle.
Stone Of Destiny – 12/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Justanotherbottle – 9/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – The Group 1 Juddmonte International is the highlight of day one of the Ebor Festival. Crystal Ocean has the best form and will take all the beating if he reproduces his best form. Japan, King of Comedy & Circus Maximus represent the classic generation. For those looking for a bigger priced alternative to the favourite. Look no further than the Mark Johnston trained Elarqam. Unbeaten on two starts as a juvenile. He was expected to make up into a high class 3-year-old but after finishing 4th in the 2,000 Guineas is form tailed off. Has improved physically from three to four, winning three of his four starts including a career best when winning a Group 2 over C&D 25-days ago. Has 7lb to find with Crystal Ocean but has each-way claims.
Verdict: If Crystal Ocean has recovered from a hard race in the King George VI, he will win this. Elarqam may yet fulfil his lofty price tag and breeding and show he’s a genuine Group 1 horse. Needs one or two to underperform but has place claims.
Elarqam – 11/1 @ Paddy Power & Ladbrokes – each way
4:15 – Frankie Dettori is an eye-catching jockey booking for Dubawi Fifty. The 6-year-old ran a blinder to finish runner-up in the Northumberland Plate two starts back. Couldn’t get into a prominent position at Goodwood and never got into the race. He’s better that that and York will his running style. It won’t be easy off top weight of 9-10 but he’s more than capable of winning a race like this. Carnwennan & Rare Groove were first & second in the Northumberland Plate consolation race two starts back. The first named had previously won over C&D. Both horses then ran in the Marsh Cup at Newbury. Carnwennan was sent off the 5/1 joint favourite that day but ran no sort of race and finished 15th of 16. The 4-year-old is better than that so if you forgive that effort, he remains a progressive stayer. Rare Groove was 5th and seemed to run his race at Newbury. He’s capable of going well again although he has disappointed on both starts at York. Eddystone Rock seemed to improve for the step up 2m when winning at the Shergar Cup. The 7-year-old is 4lb higher here but still looks on a winnable mark if building on his Ascot run.
Verdict: If the going is good or quicker, I think C&D winner Carnwennan can resume his progress and go close here. Top-weight Dubawi Fifty is better than he was able to show at Goodwood and deserves to win a race like this.
Carnwennan – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & William Hill
4:50 – A tough looking nursery handicap with a maximum field of 22 set to go to post. Pop Dancer comes into the race on a hat trick. He looks on competitive mark for his handicap debut. Trainer Richard Fahey has won this race three times in the past ten years and Pop Dancer looks to have a similar profile to his previous winners. Mark Johnston saddles four and the best of them could be the tough and consistent Rose Of Kildare who battled on well to dead heat for first at Newmarket 18-days ago.
Pop Dancer – 8/1 – Ladbrokes & Coral
Cheers
John