Hi all,
Blue De Vega did the business for us on Friday. Hopefully you got on at the double figure prices that were available in the morning.
Saturday’s racing isn’t great and with four big punting days at York ahead, I’m keeping selections down to a minimum today. I have looked at the two Ripon handicaps in more detail but I also have three selections racing at, Newbury Newmarket & Doncaster.
Ripon
2:05 -William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap (Consolation Race For The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes) (Class 2) – 6f
Looks on paper as tough a race as the Great St Wilfrid but with out the prize money. Plenty of old handicappers who have dropped down to winnable marks such as three-time C&D winner Flying Pursuit. The 6-year-old hasn’t quite fired so far this season, but he ticks the key boxes of going, course & distance and is well handicapped if he bounces back to form today. Lucky Lucky Man is another well handicapped horse, being 5lb lower than when winning the Ayr Bronze Cup on heavy ground last September. The 4-year-old shaped like he was about to run into winning form when 3rd of 9 at Hamilton 14-days ago and is one for the shortlist. Another for the shortlist is Royal Prospect. The 4-year-old has a different profile to most of the field. He’s only had the nine career starts, winning four of them. The latter of those wins came at Redcar 27-days ago. First run at Ripon and his Redcar win came on good to firm. He’s also won on good to soft and should be effective if has turned soft. He’s a handicap sprinter going the right way and is only 3lb higher than for his last win.
Verdict: I wouldn’t be surprised if Flying Pursuit returned to form to win this. Royal Prospect has a progressive profile and if he handles the course shouldn’t be far away again.
Flying Pursuit – 8/1 – Gen
Royal Prospect – 14/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places ¼ odds) or 12/1 William Hill (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:15 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Tim Easterby has a couple of live contenders in Vintage Brut & Staxton. The former won a York Listed race on his final start as a juvenile last October. Not in the same form so far this season but the 3-year-old has dropped down to a competitive mark and is effective on rain softened ground. Gets the first-time blinkers today which could see him come back to his best.
Staxton won a valuable 6f handicap on the tapeta at Newcastle back in June and wasn’t disgraced when 3rd in the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton on his next start. Has to poor York run to put behind him but ran well over C&D earlier in the season. Might have a good draw in stall 20. Great Prospector has been racing mostly over further but 6f on soft ground could be ideal for the Richard Fahey trained 4-year-old. Gunmetal won this race 12 months ago, off 4lb lower not without a chance even off this higher mark but he surely, needs quicker ground than he looks likely to get today. No issues with easy ground for Lahore who won over C&D 12 -days ago. The 5-year-old has only had 11 career starts wining four of them. Up 3lb for his last win but he can get a good tow into the race on the stand side and looks capable of going close.
Verdict: Another race where a well handicapped, if out of form horse, could get into the winner’s enclosure. Vintage Brut & Staxton give trainer Tim Easterby a good hand in the race, slight preference for the first named. Meanwhile Lahore is going the right way and could make that extra bit of improvement needed to win.
Vintage Brut – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (paying 5 places 1/5 odds) or 14/1 @ William Hill (paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Lahore – 10/1 @ Paddy Power or 9/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
Newmarket
3:55 – Aplomb, trained by William Haggas is the one they all have to beat here. The 3-year-old showed again that he’s at his best with plenty of ease in the ground when winning at Leicester 6-days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to carry for that success but as longs at the ground is good to soft or softer, I think he can defy it. Although I wouldn’t want to take less than 5/2 about his chance!
Aplomb – 5/2 or bigger
Newbury
3:35 – Unibet Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
Not many runners but a tricky puzzle with the soft ground unlikely to play to the strengths of last year’s winner Sir Dancealot & Hey Gaman. The mud loving Safe Voyage’s claims are clear for all to see but he looks plenty short enough now. The return to 7f will suit Glorious Journey who has winning form on good to soft. A reproduction of his neck second to Limato two starts back ago put him very much in the mix here. Wasn’t disgraced in the Group 1 July Cup on his last start and since 2008 – 4 winners from 12 runners +14.75 7 placed 58% have came into this race having raced in Group 1 race on their last run. Not the strongest Group 2 you will see so Glorious Journey can be in the mix on his best form.
Glorious Journey – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Doncaster
2:50 – Presidential has won over C&D and has several other good efforts here at Doncaster. Three starts back he was slowly away and did well to finish 5th of 11 from off the pace over C&D. Built on that promise when ½ second at Ayr on his next start. The 5-year-old was disappointing at Redcar 7-days ago but the first time cheekpieces are enlisted today. A very useful performer and He’s dropped down to a tempting handicap mark. Must avoid another poor start but if he does and he gets a decent pace to chase, I can see him getting into the places. Vulnerable to any progressive horses in the field but should give his supporters a good run for their money.
Presidential – 12/1 @ Bet365 – each way
Not sure if there will be any selections on Sunday so watch your inbox for updates.
Cheers
John