Hi all,
It was nice to land yesterday’s big race winner Beat Le Bon. Not just good to bag the winner but to also read the race well.
Sadly, Galway has let us down this week and I’m a shade frustrated that I didn’t go with Minella Beau in the Galway Blazers.
We move on. Unlike previous Saturdays we don’t have to worry about heavy showers changing the going before racing. With Goodwood set to be dry & sunny for the final day of the Festival .
Goodwood Festival – Day 5
1:50 – Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Handicap (Consolation Race For The Stewards’ Cup) (Class 2) – 6f
My starting point for this race is last year’s race. Tommy G (Stall 20) won 12 months ago off 4lb higher and last year’s winning jockey Silvestre De Sousa is back in the saddle. He was drawn more to the centre last years and is higher drawn here. In the past 11-years only 1 winner from 10 4 runners 12 placed have won from stall higher than 16 which is well below expectations.
The main positive for Tommy G is that the only main pace angle Ballyquin (Stall 19) is drawn near side to. The Andrew Balding trained runner is ante-post favourite in most bookies’ lists. The 4-year-old was 2nd of 15 at Ascot two starts back and occupied the same spot at Newmarket 42-days ago. He’s unexposed on turf, just the four starts and races off just 2lb higher than at Newmarket. James Doyle has been booked for the ride and he’s 3-12 25% +6 when teaming up with the trainer in the past 5-years. Given he looks the lone front runner in the field he’s got to be high on the shortlist. On the negative side 4-year-olds are only 1 winner from 81 runners 14 placed 17% in the race.
Tommy G – 10/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Ballyquin – 12/1 @ Coral – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
2:25 – Mark Johnston saddles a couple of live contenders: King’s Advice, unlucky in the Northumberland Plate before a decisive win at Newmarket over 1m 6f, in the process making it 3-3 over the distance. The quicker the ground the better and he’s 4 -4 on good or quicker ground. Up 7lb his last win which makes life harder, but the previous C&D winner, should remain competitive. Charles Kingsley is the second Johnston runner. The 4-year-old also comes into the race after a good win at Newmarket over 1m 6f, just 7-days ago. That was his first run over the distance so there could be more to come from this tough sort who’s just 3lb higher. Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride and if the race doesn’t too quickly. Must be in the shake-up, even though he may be better on slightly easier surface.
Outbox did make all to win a novice race at Leicester last September. He was well fancied (9/2) for the race that King’s Advice won at Newmarket but could only finish a 5 ¼ length 6th. I was expecting him to be ridden more prominently than he was that day. Still it was an improved effort and he’s capable of more progression. He’s lightly raced for his age and he could be seen to better effect with a more aggressive ride here. Mind you stall 12 doesn’t help in that regard. He also might be better on a slightly easier surface.
Charles Kingsley – 6/1 – Gen
Outbox – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:40 – Unibet Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 6f
The big betting race of the Goodwood Festival. A wide-open renewal of this year’s race, as you would expect. Unlike the consolation race, horses drawn 1 to 14 are 4 winners from 144 runners 21 placed. Those drawn 15+ are 7 winners from 126 runners 20 placed.
Looking at the pace maps for the race. The mostly likely speed horses seem to be drawn middle to low.
Justanotherbottle (Stall 9) was beaten a short-head 12 months ago. He can now race off 4lb lower so has to be high on the betting shortlist. Not in great from on his three starts this year but this will have been the 5-year-olds target and he’s been well backed this week ante-post to go one better.
The 3-year-old Khaadem (Stall 3) was sent off just 7/1 for Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. Ran a bit flat there but bounced back to form when runner-up in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury 14-days ago. He’s a classy sprinter but it will be no easy task off a mark of 107. Three-year-olds one the race in 2015 & 2016 with Khaadem’s trainer Charlie Hills saddling the 2015 winner. Could get a nice tow in the race from Lake Volta? A sprinter on the up and could be well handicapped.
Lake Volta (1), is a typical tough Mark Johnston horse he made all to win over C&D back in May, off 2lb lower. He’s since finished a close 5th in the Bunbury Cup off 3lb higher and second in the Scottish Stewards Cup, and 9th in last week’s International Stakes. Seems ground versatile and handles a big field well. A reproduction of his C&D win puts him very much in the mix.
Flavius Titus (11), trained by Roger Varian who won the Wokingham with Cape Byron is also a strong contender. He’s been in good form this season with form figures 131 and j4lb higher than for the last of those wins at Newmarket. The 4-year-old’s best performances have come on quick ground and this is only his 6th start over 6f. Returns from a 56-day break but he’s won twice off longer lay off’s, so the absence is probably a positive rather than a negative. Hard to see him being out of the money if he handles the track. Stablemate Spanish City was 1 ¼ lengths behind him at Newmarket. He’s just 3lb better off with Flavius Titus but has since finished a never nearer 4th in the Bunbury.Cup. The 6-year-old is very consistent but find winning hard. A fast runs 6f could be interesting especially as trainer opts for the first-time blinkers.
David O’Meara saddles Summerghand (6) & Arecibo (21). The first named was 5th in the Wokingham but wasn’t seen to best advantage in a small field conditions race at Haydock last time. The return to a big field, at track like Goodwood should be ideal. He’s got form with Flavius Titus early in the season. Big chance with Ryan Moore an eye-catching jockey booking. Possibly an even more interesting jockey booking is Frankie Dettori for the second O’Meara runner Arecibo. The ex -French trained 4-year-old has some decent form before arriving at his present yard. Got off the mark when winning at Ayr, on good to firm, three starts ago. He’s since run better when runner-up on his last two starts subsequent over 6f at Ripon & latterly at Ascot, 8 days ago. He was 33/1 earlier in the week but is half those odds now and will be shorter come post time given the ‘Frankie Factor’.
Verdict: Plenty in with a chance as you would expect for a race of this nature. My three against the field are Justanotherbottle, Flavius Titus & Lake Volta.
Justanotherbottle – 10/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Flavius Titus – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
Lake Volta – 14/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power – each way – (both paying 6 places 1/5 odds)
Galway Festival – Day 6
2:30 – A twenty runner 2m 7f handicap hurdle. I think Great Trango is a shade overpriced. If he was trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott he would be half his present odds. The 6-year-old really came alive at this time last year landing a flat handicap here 12 months ago and following up in a 3m Listowel handicap hurdle off 2lb lower. Both those wins came on testing ground, but he’s also got plenty of placed flat form on good to firm so underfoot conditions shouldn’t be much of a problem. Has had three starts since returning from a break and seems to be becoming to the boil at the right time. Had little chance from his wide draw in the 2m 1f flat handicap here on Monday. Still he was doing his best work at the end of the race to finish 8th 20. Nice low weight of 9-13 and has sporting each way claims.
Great Trango – 20/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 4 placed ¼ odds)
Cheers
John