Hi all,
Friday’s Lingfield’s Winter Million Festival card was lost to the freezing weather, but they should be able to race today.
You can watch five races live from Lingfield on ITV3 this afternoon. Plus, there’s the bonus of the Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase at Thurles (1:35). The latter race features the likes of Allaho, Envoi Allen and Appreciate It among the six declared runners.
Despite the rise in temperatures Fakenham failed a 3pm Saturday inspection with the truck still frozen. More bad luck for Fakenham who would have been staging races on terrestrial TV for the first time in years.
As ever I have had a look at some of the ITV races.
Lingfield
The ground at Lingfield is good to soft but the frost sheets have been down for days and it’s likely to be a holding good to soft.
1:15 – The ITV action gets underway with the Grade 2 Download The Racing App Now Lightning Novices’ Chase. Just the five runners but it’s an interesting contest. Matata put in a good weight carrying performance when a length runner-up to the progressive Libberty Hunter at Cheltenham last time. A good jumper of a fence this sharper two miles will suit this prominent racer.
Djelo and Master Chewy must give Matata 5lb which may prove too much of an ask. Of that pair Djelo is 3-3 since going over fences this season and is open to further improvement.
JPR One a winner on chase debut at Newton Abbot and looked to have a Cheltenham Grade novice chase in the bag when unseating his rider at the last. Was still in contention when making a mistake two out in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown last time. Needs to cut out the mistakes but of he can I think he can win.
1:50 – Saint Segal looked to be going as well as eventual winner Boothill when falling at the last at Ascot 57 days ago. Lingfield’s easier fences will suit the 6-year-old and I think he’s the one to beat.
Frero Banbou won this corresponding race two years ago from 2lb lower. He’s been running with credit over further this season but likely to give his running once more.
The King Of Prs made it 2-2 over fences when winning a Limerick novice chase (soft to heavy) on Boxing Day. Different ground today on handicap chase debut but is open to further improvement and could be well treated.
First Flow is a formerly classy chaser who won the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon in December 2021. That remains the 12-year-old’s last success. He’s run well on both this season’s starts and given his solid jumping can’t be totally ruled out if he gets a decent stamina test.
2:25 – Nurse Susan took advantage of a good mark to win over hurdles at Cheltenham (2m 4 ½ f) last month.
Gowel Road is unexposed as a staying hurdler and was a good 4 ½ length 4th of 15 to Slate Lane in the valuable Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock two starts back. Looks handicapped to win a race like this.
Moka De Vassy got off the mark at the thirteen attempt over hurdles when beating three rivals at Taunton (3m) 22 days ago. Has plenty of ability and a 2lb rise is workable if he jumps with more fluency than last time.
The booking of Harry Cobden for Midnightreflection is an eyecatching one. She’ll appreciate the drying ground and has each way claims.
3:00 – Fitzdares Fleur De Lys Chase – 2m 6f
The feature race of Lingfield’s Winter Million Festival with £85,850 on offer to the winner. On Official Ratings it looks between L’Homme Presse and Protektorat. L’Homme Presse is having his first start since unseating his rider at the last in last season’s King George VI Chase at Kempton. He remains the Britain’s best hope in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He’ll come on for the run, but connections wil surely be disappointed if he can’t beat Protektorat in receipt of 4lb. Protektorat isn’t one I trust and if I’m ever backing him then I will give up on the game.
3:35 – Fitzdares Surrey National Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 5f
Not one of the more valuable races on the card but a good betting heat. Fourteen have been declared and I can make cases for most of them.
Harry Cobden has been booked for the progressive O’Connell. The 8-year-old was returned the 15/8 favourite for the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen last time. He looked like he was going to win his race two out before eventually finishing a length 4th of 10. He raced like the 3m 3 ½ f stretched his stamina so 3m 5f here must be a concern. That said he travelled through the race like he’s a winnable mark. Now a non-runner.
Animal was one place and ¼ length in front of O’Connell in the Lincolnshire National. Comes into the race in good form and looks the stronger stayer of the pair.
Regal Blue is unexposed over fences after just two startsover the larger obstacles. Takes a big step up in trip here but was doing all his best work at the finish at Haydock (2m 4f) last time and 3m 5f could really suit the 7-year-old.
Not Sure didn’t seem to stay an extended 3m 6 ½ f on heavy ground when 4th of 19 in the Welsh Grand National last time. Back in slightly calmer waters here and respected despite stamina concerns.
Fern Hill is a decent 3m handicap chaser on his day and wasn’t disgraced when a 6 ¼ length 3rd of 10 to Nassalam in last month’s Welsh Grand National Trial at Chepstow. That was the 9-year-old’s first start for 8 months, so he was entitled to need the run on heavy ground. Now 1lb below his last winning mark but stamina for 3m 5f has to be taken on trust.
Movethechains and Notachance are two well handicapped to ignore albeit neither horse comes into the race in any form. All four of Movethechains career wins have come at Lingfield and his form figures are 11112. Not the best of jumpers and might prefer more give underfoot but if he did bounce back to form returned to his favourite track, he’s handicapped to go close. Notachance has been well below his best on two starts this season, but he did finish third in both the Midlands Grand National and Warwick’s Classic Chase last season. A reproduction of either of those efforts would put him in the mix.
Thurles
1:35 – Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 4f
Allaho won this in 2021 & 2022 and provided he didn’t have to hard a race in the King George VI Chase last time should win this especially as he’s in receipt of 4lb from Envoi Allen. The latter is best fresh and will be better suited by a sounder surface. Allaho’s stablemate Appreciate It didn’t stay 3m in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown and can bounce back dropped back to 2m 4f. Still, he will need Allaho to underperform if he’s to win.
Betting Advice:
Now that Fakenham is off, I’m left with just Lingfield to go out from a betting perspective. One of my fancies in the Surrey National O’Connell is a non-runner so it looks like a fairly quiet day on the betting front.
Lingfield
1:15 – JPR One – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – Moka De Vassy – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Animal – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John