Hi all,
There’s no racing on ITV this afternoon and the eyes of the NH fans switch across the Irish Sea to Leopardstown and Limerick where there’s Grade 1 action at both tracks.
Leicester has been abandoned that leaves Catterick to provide the sole jumps action this afternoon this side of the Irish Sea and there’s a teatime an all-weather fixture at Newcastle. In truth the British racing was poor even before the loss of Leicester’s card.
Leopardstown
At Leopardstown there are two Grade 1’s. The first of them is the Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle (1:50). Last year’s winner Home By The Lee looks to have a solid chance of following up. However, he does face an upcoming young stayer in Irish Point. This is the 5-year-old’s first run beyond 2m 4f but I’m hoping he’ll stay and can stamp himself a staying hurdler going places by beating Home By The Lee.
The second Grade 1 is the Savills Chase. It’s an absolute belter and the best chase you’ll see this season outside of the Cheltemham Gold Cup.
2:25 – Savills Chase (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
Gold Cup hero Galopin Des Champs heads the betting, but he’s been beaten twice by Fastorslow since Cheltenham including on his seasonal return in the John Durkan at Punchestown last month. Fastorslow is improving and it’s surprising to see him being twice the odds of the favourite. Indeed, you could argue that he should be favourite.
Gerri Colombe is another staying chaser on the upgrade. The rain that arrived on Wednesday has come in time for him given he missed the King George VI to come here.
I think we’ll see Galopin Des Champs given a prominent ride and if he is then he might be able to beat Fastorslow this time. This is a big test of Gerri Colombe’s Gold Cup credentials and the more testing the ground the more he will like it.
If the bookies are right it looks between those three, but the others are no trees. Conflated won last year’s renewal and is 14/1 this time around. He finished a 1 ¾ length 3rd to Gerri Colombe in a Grade 1 at Down Royal last month.
Runner-up to Gerri Colombe at Down Royal was Envoi Allen. He won the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and can’t be ruled out although there are likely to be strong stayers at the finish. Rachel Blackmore opts for stablemate A Plus Tard. The 9-year-old was runner-up in this race in 2021 before going onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup later that season. He was well below par on all three starts last season and nicer ground would suit but can’t be discounted if bouncing back to his best on seasonal return.
The bookies had seemed to have dismissed I Am Maximus win in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices Chase (2m 4f) as a bit of a fluke. The horse he beat in the Drinmore Found A Fifty won a Grade 1 novice here on Boxing Day so that form looks solid. Given he won the Irish Grand National as a novice, stamina for 3m won’t be an issue. If his jumping holds up, he could surprise.
Churchstonewarrior is the outsider of the 11 runners, and you can understand why as he’s got 20lb to find with the likes of Fastorslow and Gerri Colombe never mind the favourite. However, he was a useful novice chaser last season, and his three figure odds are a bit of an insult. Whilst he probably needs further than 3m, if the ground is testing, he could get into the frame at huge odds.
There are two big field handicaps on the Leopardstown card, and both are interesting.
12:40 – Music Of Tara returned from a 9-month absence to finish a good 9 ¼ length 3rd of 20 in a handicap hurdle at Navan (2m) 40 days ago. The return to 2m 4f should suit and the mare has to be high on the shortlist. Power Hour wasn’t disgraced when a 28 lengths 4th of 17 to Farren Glory in maiden at Clonmel last month. That was the 7-year-old’s first run for 6 months so he’s entitled to be sharper here and can’t be discounted on handicap debut.
3:00 – Cases can be made for inform mare Gaoth Chuil who could be suited by the step up to 3m and Lucky Zebo returning from a 90-day layoff and on a competitive mark.
Nine Graces ended last season with hurdle wins at Punchestown and Ballinrobe and returned from a 7-month absence as good as ever when a 5 ½ length 3rd of 20 at Fairyhouse (2m 4f) 26 days ago. Should be fitter today and if she stays a testing 3m won’t be far away.
West Is Awake finished one place and 2 lengths in front of Nine Graces at Fairyhouse. Already a winner at three miles, the return to the distance should suit and off bottom weight should be in the mix for a yard that had a winner here on Boxing Day.
Limerick
The Grade 1 Guinness Faugheen Novice Chase (2:05) has only attracted five runners. It looks like the exciting Gaelic Warrior who won on chase debut at Punchestown last month has scared of prospective rivals. He’ll be long odds on but barring a fall is a certainty.
The Grade 1 provides the quality but the Campion Insurance Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase (2:40) is the most competitive race on the card.
Henry De Bromhead has won the last two renewals of the race and has a good chance of the hat trick with likely favourite Queen Jane. The mare is 2-4 over fences including a success here (2m 1 ½ f).in March. Back from a 7-month absence she was an encouraging head 2nd of 8 at Fairyhouse on her seasonal reappearance 25 days ago. Up 5lb but she remains on a winnable mark.
Captains Nephew got off the mark at the third attempt over fences when winning a Clonmel novices handicap chase three weeks ago. He’s already a better chaser than a hurdler and open to further improvement over fences. His jumping was sound last time and there was plenty to like about the way he went through the heavy ground at Clonmel. Yard had a winner here on Wednesday.
Big Debates was back to form over hurdles last time and he goes well on soft/heavy ground. The 10-year-old’s form figures at Limerick are 311 so he’s another very much in the mix.
Coqolino was set too much to do when a5 ½ length 3rd of 8 at Punchestown last time. He remains aa maiden after five starts over fences, but he’s shown enough to think a win isn’t far away.
Betting Advice:
Leopardstown
12:40 – Music Of Tara – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Bet365 and Power Hour – 0.5pts win – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – Churchstonewarrior – 0.5pts each way – 100/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and 0.5pts win – I Am Maximus – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Nine Graces – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and West Is Awake – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John