Hi all,
The good start to the festive season continued on Boxing Day but today will be another challenge on the weather front.
Kempton has its second day of festive racing, featuring the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices Chase (1:55) and the Grade 2 Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase (2:30). The latter, which used to have small fields, is now a limited handicap. The change in the race conditions was meant to lead to a bigger and more competitive field. However, this year’s renewal has one less runner than 12 months ago.
However, the race of the day this side of the Irish Sea isn’t at Kempton but it’s the Coral Welsh Grand National (2:50) at Chepstow. Despite recent heavy rain, the going is described as good to soft, with some expected rain on Boxing Day and Wednesday possibly changing it closer to soft. The expected conditions, though, are not the heavy ground usually seen at this fixture.
Kempton
ITV Racing are showing four races from Kempton. I haven’t looked at the first of them and the other two have 14 runners between them.
2:30 – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Handicap Chase (Grade 2) – 2m
Editeur Du Gite led all the way to beat Nube Negra in last year’s race but the change to handicap means Nube Negra gets a 10lb advantage with the winner. The better ground will suit Nube Negra but he was beaten 13 lengths 12 months ago. Even with the revised weights it won’t be easy to beat a back to form Editeur Du Gite. Mind you the latter has been well beaten on both this season’s starts so his well-being must be taken on trust.
Boothill won the Wayward Lad on this card last year and has won both this season’s starts at Ascot. He’s the in-form contender who could still be on the upgrade.
Editeur Du Gite could well get an uncontested lead here and if he does bounce back to last year’s best will be tough to peg back.
3:09 – Ladbrokes Get Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m
Tea Clipper has been runner-up on both this season’s starts. He’s on a good mark but is on a losing run that goes back two years. He’ll be a popular choice with many punters in the Ladbrokes Get Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase (3:09). However, at a better price looks to be Dalamoi. The 6-year-old won here over fences last November over shorter. He was well backed on his seasonal return (11/4) before pulling up in the Coral Welsh Grand National Trial at Chepstow 18 days ago. He was beaten too far from home to think he didn’t stay 3m last time so it’s more likely to have been a combination of him needing the run and heavy ground that explains his performance. Better ground should be in his favour, and I think he can show why he’s on a winnable mark.
Chepstow
Triumph Hurdle ante post favourite Burdett Road will be hard to beat in the Grade 2 Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (2:10) provided the ground doesn’t get too testing.
2:50 – Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m 6 ½ f
It’s a bit of a surprise to see a Welsh Grand National not run on bottomless ground and up until today it looked like it maybe be the case. There’s a lot of heavy rain being forecast for the track, possibly as much as 25mm before the big race.
A full field of 20 are set to face the starter for the Chepstow feature and I think the market has got it right and I will be surprised if the winner comes from those outside the first five in the betting.
Everything clicked for Nassalam, in the reapplied blinkers, when he won the trial here (3m) 18 days ago. Looks well handicapped under just a 4lb penalty but does have to prove his stamina for an extra 6f.
Super Survivor won at this meeting 12 months ago and has the look of an improving staying handicap chaser. A solid runner-up to a stablemate at Lingfield on his seasonal reappearance last month. The 7-year-old has yet to finish outside the first two at Chepstow and is open to further improvement over fences.
Autonomous Cloud is another improving staying chaser. The 7-year-old had a head to spare over one of today’s rivals Iron Bridge when winning at Uttoxeter in March (Super Survivor, a further 17 lengths back in third) and made a winning seasonal return at that venue last month. He’s now 2-5 over the larger obstacles and looks an ideal type for this race particularly if the rain arrives.
Iwilldoit was a good winner of this race in 2021 and returned from a 13-month layoff to win the Classic Chase at Warwick in January. He ran with credit when 2nd of 11 over hurdles at Aintree on last month’s seasonal return and should be spot on fitness wise. No easy task off a mark of 153, against several progressive rivals, but the booking of a 7lb Conditional jockey does help ease the burden.
Iron Bridge steadily progressive over fences last season posted a career best when just touched off by Autonomous Cloud at Uttoxeter in the spring. Very disappointing albeit over an in adequate 2m 4f at Newbury 26 days ago. Better can be expected back up in trip and this sort of marathon trip could bring out more 7-year-old.
Of the rest, I fancied The Galloping Bear for this race 12 months ago, but we haven’t seen the 10-year-old since he pulled up in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter back in March.
1:40 – Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m 7 ½ f
Bells Of Peterboro won the Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Hurdle (1:40) in 2021 and was a 4 ¼ length runner-up in last year’s corresponding race. He hasn’t really performed on three starts this season but is 6lb lower than 12 months ago and the application of the first-time visor could see the 8-year-old bounce back to form.
Leopardstown
It’s day two of Leopardstown Christmas Festival and the action cranks up a gear.
There could be 25mm of rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning so the going at Leopardstown is likely to ease.
Provided the ground hasn’t eased too much overnight last year’s Supreme Hurdle winner Marine Nationale will make a belated seasonal/chase debut in the beginners’ chase (12:35).
There’s also two Grade 1’s on a seven-race card. In the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase (1:10) Captain Guinness takes on four Willie Mullins trained rivals including improving mare Dinoblue and C&D winner Gentleman De Mee.
In the other Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle (1:45) The Gordon Elliott pair of Down Memory Lane & Caldwell Potter take on the exciting Willie Mullins trained Daddy Long Legs who won on hurdle/stable debut at Thurles last month.
Besides the Grade 1’s there are couple of big field handicaps to get stuck into. The best of them is one of my favourite Irish handicap chases of the Irish jumps season the Paddy Power Chase (3:00). The race which has €200,000 on offer in guaranteed prize money and has attracted a maximum field of 28 runners.
2:20 – Paddy Power Who Put The Wrappers Back In The Box? Handicap Hurdle – 2m
One Last Tango, an 8-length 3rd of 14 in last year’s corresponding race, shaped with plenty of encouragement when a 12 ½ length 4th of 20 to one of today’s rivals Fortunedefortunata at Navan last month. He was conceding race fitness to the winner that day and gets a 9lb pull in the weights now. That said the winner improved in victory and was noticeably strong at the finish last time. Fortunedefortunata looks a worthy favourite but the value at the prices must be with One Last Tango.
Call Me Lyreen, a stablemate of Fortunedefortunata, faces no easy task returned to hurdling under top-weight. However, the 7-year-old showed what he’s capable of on his day when winning a valuable C&D handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival in February 2022. Danny Gilligan takes off a handy 5lb and provided the ground is no worse than yesterday could be worth keeping onside.
3:00 – Paddy Power Chase (Extended Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) – 3m ½ f
Even with the competing attraction of the Welsh Grand National this must rank as the most competitive race of the day.
The shrewd Martin Brassil has a strong hand in the race courtesy of Kerry National Winner Desertmore House and Panda Boy. The latter was a ¾ length 3rd of 28 in last year’s race and based on his two runs so far this season looks to have been primed for this race once more. The first time cheekpieces are applied and if they have the desired effect, he’s a likely winner but don’t dismiss the claims of his stablemate.
Gars De Sceaux looked in need of further when a running on 5th of 10 at Fairyhouse (2m ½ f) on his seasonal return last month. He’s just had four starts over fences and is capable of more improvement. Interesting on handicap debut off what looks a workable mark. His stablemate Fakir D’Alene shaped with plenty of promise on his first under rules for 580 days when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 20 in last month’s Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan. He showed last time that he’s retained plenty of his old ability and should be competitive once more.
Amirite was in the process of running a good race at Cheltenham when his saddle slipped three out on seasonal return 60-days ago. Ran in some good novice chases last season before ending last season a disappointing 11/2 favourite for the Irish Grand National. Three miles should be his trip and he’s one for the shortlist.
Meetingofthewaters got off the mark on his third attempt over fences when beating 13 rivals in a Cork beginners chase last month. The least exposed horse in the line-up, the 6-year-old is capable of better over fences but will need to improve to defy a mark of 130 on handicap debut. Given he’s owned by Paul Byrne it will be interesting to see if the money arrives for him.
Busselton was a game winner of last year’s Kerry National (3m, good) albeit aided by Hewick unseating his rider at the last. Not at his best on four starts this year and would probably prefer the rain to stay away but Conor Stone-Walsh takes off 5lb which puts him 1lb below his last winning mark and he’s another with claims.
Macs Charm ended last season a progressive handicap chaser winning at Fairyhouse in April, from 7lb lower. Likely needed the run when pulling up in the Troytown on seasonal reappearance last month. He wouldn’t be a shock winner but does need to leave his last time effort well behind to get into the places.
Betting Advice:
Whether the service ends the month in profit or not will in all likelihood be decided by today’s results.
Kempton
3:09 – Dalamoi – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Chepstow
1:40 – Bells Of Peterboro – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:50 – Iwilldoit – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Iron Bridge – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Leopardstown
2:20 – One Last Tango – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral and Call Me Lyreen – 0.5pts win – 33/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Fakir D’Alene – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Bet365, Busselton – 0.5pts win – 28/1 @ Bet365 and Gars De Sceaux – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John