Hi all,
Well, my Christmas kicked off with a surprise – woke up on Saturday with Gastroenteritis as a surprise guest.
It threw a spanner in my Christmas plans. Missed out on the family Christmas lunch due to it. I ended up spending Christmas Day solo. On the flip side, it did give me a chance to delve into the Boxing Day action, even though I wasn’t initially looking forward to it.
ITV Racing are covering six races live on Boxing Day, four from Kempton, and one each from Aintree and Wetherby. As ever I’m previewing all the ITV races.
Kempton
The best of the Boxing Day action is at Kempton, which features three Grade 1 contests. With the highlight being the King George VI Chase (2:30). Whisper it but we could have good ground at Kempton.
In the 12:45 Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, all eight runners have chances. Trainer Nicky Henderson, who secured victory in the same race last year, saddles a contender in Russian Ruler. Russian Ruler, finished fourth at Newbury on chase debut, showing promise for improvement. The form of that race is working out well but wasn’t the strongest of finishers over hurdles. Idalko Bihoue, recovering from a fall on his chase debut, showcased potential with a Cheltenham win 60 days ago. Blow You Wad, a commendable second to Le Patron, who’s since gone onto win a Grade 1 at Sandown since, on chase debut and Es Perfecto, a promising runner-up to Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham on chase debut, add depth to a competitive field. The latter will surely win races over fences and looks a shade of value although do respect the claims of Blow Your Wad
1:20 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m
It looks like a genuine Grade 1 contest. Highly regarded novice hurdler Hermes Allen delivered an impressive victory in a Grade 2 novice chase at Newbury just 25 days ago, marking a successful start to his chasing career. Trainer Paul Nicholls, a two-time winner of this race since 2017, presents a strong contender in Hermes Allen for another triumph.
Giovinco, unbeaten over hurdles, quickly bounced back from a mishap on his Carlisle chase debut, by securing victory in an Aintree handicap. Despite being outstayed in a Grade 2 at Sandown (3m), the 6-year-old gelding’s speed and suitability to Kempton make him a contender, with expectations of further improvement.
Il Est Francais is an exciting French novice chaser who made it 2-2 over fences when winning a Listed Chase at Auteuil last month. A Grade 1 winning hurdler he’s bred to do even better over fences and looks a threat to Hermes Allen. Drying ground would be an unknown but if he handles it could be good enough.
Verdict: I think this could turn out to be one of the races of the day and although I’m not sure about the French form looking at his videos of his wins Il Est Francais could be special if handling the quickest ground, he’s raced on.
1:55 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m
We finally get to see Constitution Hill make his belated seasonal reappearance. The Champion Hurdler won this 12 months ago and I don’t see him getting beat here. His main rival is likely to be C&D winner Rubaud. The 5-year-old has won both his starts this season and is going the right way. He’s the likely front runner but a measure of his task he’s got 26lb to find with Constitution Hill on Official Ratings.
2:30 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) – 3m
With only six declarations, the field may be small, but the quality is undeniable. Featuring Allaho, defending champion Bravemansgame, the unpredictable Shishkin, along with last year’s top staying novice chaser The Real Whacker, 2020 winner Frodon, and Hewick, who favours drier ground, this promises to be a competitive race.
While I initially tipped Allaho at 7/2, the current odds of 7/4 don’t appeal to me. If Allaho returns to his form from two seasons ago, he could dominate this field, especially with jockey Paul Townend making the journey over from Ireland. Bravemansgame remains a solid contender, and forgiving his Betfair Chase run could be justified. Hewick’s appreciation for the drying ground makes him a candidate for a strong performance and potentially out running his odds. Shishkin, boasting a perfect record of 4-4 at Kempton, emerges as the possible value pick at 9/2. If he hadn’t planted himself at the start at Ascot and beaten Pic D’Orhy he would be 5/2 for this not 9/2.
Verdict: It’s a fascinating race. I still want Allaho to win and blow the field apart, but I wouldn’t want to be taking 6/4. If you’re going in with Shishkin, you’ll know your fate early on but if he gets off on terms, he’s got a serious chance.
Aintree
It was soft ground at Aintree on Christmas Eve and a bit more rain was forecast for Christmas Day so it’s likely to stay soft. A bigger concern would be low sun which has blighted meetings at Aintree this season.
Aintree joins the racing calendar with its inaugural Boxing Day fixture, featuring the Grade 1 William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (1:05). Formerly known as the Tolworth Hurdle and traditionally held at Sandown on the first Saturday of January, this race boasts a competitive field of ten, surpassing recent editions at Sandown. There was a lot of controversy about switching the race from Sandown to its new home, but the BHA look to have made the correct call.
Gordon Elliott’s Farren Glory, a recent Grade 1 Royal Bond winner at Fairyhouse, is expected to be in contention. It wasn’t the strongest renewal of the Royal Bond, but it was still a decisive success. Jango Baie, victorious on his hurdle debut at Ascot, represents trainer Nicky Henderson, a three-time winner of this race since 2014. Tellherthename, narrowly defeated by Jango Baie, has since gone onto win at Huntingdon. Kamsinas, a Grade 2 winner at Haydock, and Florida Dreams, a Grade 2 bumper winner here in April, also have claims. French contender July Flower, with the advantage of a 7lb mares’ allowance, enters the race on the back of a strong Grade 1 performance at Auteuil last time.
Verdict: The race appears open and promises plenty of intrigue. Of those at the head of the betting both Jango Baie and Tellherthename must be respected. The French filly could win this comfortably if Timeform are correct. Florida Dreams might need 2m 4f but has each way claims.
Wetherby
Just like Aintree they are expecting some rain (3mm) at Wetherby on Christmas Day so the present good to soft going could be closer to soft on the day. It’s going to be mostly dry on Boxing Day and low sun could be an issue.
At Wetherby, the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (1:35) takes centre stage on ITV, featuring a relatively modest field compared to previous years. Unlike the eleven runners in 2022 edition, this year’s race will see just six contenders, marking the smallest field since 2007.
Empire Steel, a strong contender, was unfortunate to fall in the same race two years ago and displayed promising form in his seasonal return at Kelso. Into Overdrive, a progressive handicap chaser, seeks to defend his title after a 287-day layoff and will benefit from ground conditions better than soft. Fontaine Collonges, despite a setback in her seasonal return at Sandown and a preference for longer distances, she remains a viable contender being just 1lb above her last winning mark.
Across the Irish Sea the Leopardstown & Limerick Christmas Festival’s get underway.
Leopardstown hosts the prestigious Racing Post Novice Chase (2:20), a Grade 1 event featuring a compact field of just four contenders. Facile Vega, aiming to build on last month’s successful chase debut, is a strong favourite, with the only potential drawback being quicker ground conditions. Leopardstown is likely to have yielding ground at worst, making Facile Vega’s stablemate, Sharjah, a more interesting contender compared to Found A Fifty. Although considered the outsider at 16/1, Sharjah’s past success at this meeting over hurdles adds an intriguing element, suggesting he might be overpriced. If he was 4/1 I wouldn’t touch him but at four times those odds you have to be tempted.
Besides what will probably be a mad swing on Sharjah I also have a couple of other selections on the Leopardstown card.
Leopardstown
1:45 – Ataboycharlie looks overpriced on his racecourse debut performance when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 12 at Galway in October. The winner has gone in again and is Officially rated 123 and Ataboycharlie makes his handicap debut off a mark of 111. Granted he’s been well beaten on his last two starts but there was promise in his latest run at Fairyhouse. He should give his backers a good run for their money.
2:55 – Drumbear, unseated rider when 5-4fav at Musselburgh in a novices’ handicap chase (2m 4f) won by the useful Notlongtillmay in February when last seen in action. Prior to that had made all to beat Limerick Lace at Limerick over Christmas. Likely to face pressure for the lead which is off putting but he’s on a winnable mark. Likely favourite Chavez won a beginners chase at Fairyhouse on his latest start in January. He’s not been the easiest to keep sound and needs to jump better than he did that day to win this on his handicap debut. At around 5/2 prices he’s worth taking on. Apart from Drumbear the others I like are Typical Thomas and Skippin Court. The former has won his last two starts over fences and there was plenty to like about his Cork Listed handicap chase win last time when he won despite jumping to his left. He’s up 10lb for his Cork win but Aidan Kelly takes off a handy 5lb and the drying ground is a plus. Skippin Court, a three-time winner over hurdles posted his best effort over fences when a 6-length 3rd of 11 at Wexford 39 days ago. Looks the sort to do better now going handicapping over fences and drying ground looks a plus.
Betting Advice:
Kempton
12:45 – Es Perfecto – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Aintree
1:05 – July Flower – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Wetherby
1:35 – Fontaine Collonges – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Leopardstown
1:45 – Ataboycharlie – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:20 – Sharjah – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Bet365
2:55 – Skippin Court – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John