Hi all,
There’s a slightly different format to today’s preview.
I have previewed all six races on Friday’s Ascot card. I have looked through all the races, it’s one of those cards where I wouldn’t be at all surprised if all six races fell to the favourite.
In truth there’s not a whole lot of value to be had but here goes.
Ascot
The start of two days of racing of Ascot that completes the pre-Christmas action. It’s a six-race card at Ascot and 61 runners have been declared albeit 25% of them run in the Listed bumper (3:40) that concludes the card. I have to say the latter race looks seriously competitive. The line-up for the race is just one short of the maximum field and half of the field have claims.
The feature race on the card is the Grade 2 Howden Noel Novices’ Chase (3:05). In comparison to the bumper its attracted just four runners. Mind you it’s possible to make claims for all four runners.
Djelo made it 2-2 over fences when winning a handicap at Newbury three weeks ago. Capable of better and he’s a worthy market leader. The one to beat.
Kandoo Kid also won at Newbury on the same day as Djelo he’s another going the right way over fences, but he may not be as well positioned as the favourite in a race lacking pace.
Might I finished alone after his only rival’s saddled slipped at halfway at Exeter last month. A useful hurdler he’s probably capable of better over fences.
Unexpected Party has disappointed on his last two starts after winning a Listed Novices’ Chase at Chepstow on his seasonal return. Is more exposed than his three rivals but looks the sole pace angle.
Most Likely winner – Djelo
12:45 – Howden Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 5 ½ f
Roger Pol was 2-4 in bumper company last season and got off the mark at his second attempt over hurdles when beating six rivals at Fakenham (2m) last month. Looks on a workable mark for his handicap hurdle debut and his jockey can claim a handy 10lb. The 5-year-old steps up 5 ½ f in trip in this conditional jockey’s handicap hurdle but his full brother Minella Crooner won over 2m 7f so he should improve for the step up in trip. If you fancy him, I wouldn’t put you off and 11/4 might turn out be very generous.
Mot A Mot has only had two starts since winning a better handicap (2m 3f) at Newbury in April 2022. He pulled up on his sole start over fences last season and looked badly in need of the run when 5th of 7 at Exeter 26 days ago. He should be sharper here and the first time cheekpieces make of interest off his last winning mark. Trainer Sam Thomas is 5-11 + 8.45 with his runners here in the past 5-years.
Most Likely Winner – Roger Pol
Each Way – Mot A Mot
1:20 – Howden Maiden Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 5 ½ f
Welcom To Cartries was beaten a head on his hurdle debut here (2m 3 ½ f) 28 days ago. The winner has since gone onto finish runner-up to Dysart Enos at Cheltenham. Today’s extra two furlongs should suit, and he sets a high standard.
Leader In The Park shaped with plenty of promise when a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 5 over C&D 27 days ago. He sould improve further and looks the biggest rival to Welcom To Cartries.
Most Likely Winner – Welcom To Cartries
Each Way – Leader In The Park
1:55 – Howden Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 1f
Just the four have been declared for this Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase and I can’t look beyond the favourite Persian Time. The 5-year-old made a promising chase debut when a 5 ½ runner-up to Djelo at Newbury three weeks ago. He’s open to further progress over the larger obstacles. I think he can beat consistent Homme Public who will like the ground but was a lucky winner of a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time. Useful hurdler Authorised Speed looks on a workable mark for his chase debut but will need his jumping to be spot on to beat Persian Time and Homme Public.
Most Likely Winner – Persian Time
2:30 – WB Wealth Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) – 1m 7 ½ f
The early betting suggests this is between Bad, Immortal and Jagwar and I concur.
Immortal is interesting dropped back to 2m and is on a winnable mark. Jagwar is open to further improvement on handicap debut.
Bad ran his best race since joining Ben Pauling when a ¾-length 2nd of 8 to Hansard in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury 20 days ago. He’s up just 2lb and Beau Morgan takes off 5lb which negates the weight rise. He’s not much of a price at around 11/4 but this represents a significant class drop for the top-weight and I think he should win.
At bigger odds Poncho has each way claims. The winner of a Plumpton novice hurdle winner in January, ran like something was amiss on handicap debut at Newbury on his next start. Took a heavy fall on his final start of last season and fell two out over C&D on seasonal return 28 days ago.
Most Likely Winner – Bad
Each Way – Poncho
3:40 – Thames Materials Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) – 1m 7 ½ f
The biggest field and arguably the most interesting race on the card. Brechin Castle made it 2-2 in bumpers when winning a Listed race at Cheltenham last month. He has a 4lb penalty to carry for that win but remains the one to beat. That all said he faces some interesting rivals who are capable of better.
Let It Rain (Dan Skelton) won a Warwick bumper on racecourse debut last time. Captain Bellemy (Paul Nicholls) looked a nice prospect when winning a Chepstow bumper on stable debut 52 days ago. Dunskay (Ben Pauling) made a winning bumper debut at Exeter 32 days ago and he’s another who can take another step forward.
Celtic Dino (Sam Thomas) won over C&D on his racecourse debut last month. Only 6lb to find with Brechin Castle on RPR’s and could be turn out to be the biggest threat to the hat trick seeking Brechin Castle.
Mr Zippi is one of the ran outsiders in the betting at 66/1 but those odds are a bit of an insult. The 4-year-old has won both his bumper starts and although this is a big step up in class, he’s worth his place in the line-up. First run since June and his first start on ground worse than good but provided the ground isn’t too testing, he can run better than their price suggests.
Most Likely Winner – Brechin Castle
Each Way – Mr Zippi
Betting Advice:
Ascot
12:40 – Mot A Mot – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
2:30 – Poncho – 1pt each way – 16/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:35 – Mr Zippi – 0.5pts each way – 50/1@ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John