Hi all,
Sadly, we lost a decent Exeter card due to the wet weather, but it looks like Friday’s feature meeting at Sandown will go ahead.
There are two small field but intriguing Grade 2’s and three handicaps on a six race card at Sandown.
Sandown
Given the recent rain it’s likely to be soft on the chase course and close to, if not, heavy on the hurdles course.
1:15 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 1m 7 ½ f
Ballybreeze has failed to complete on his last two starts, yet there’s potential for improvement over fences. While he appears the most likely victor if his jumping holds up, the odds at 2/1 seem relatively short for my liking.
Gary Moore, with a successful track record at this meeting, has a couple of contenders in Kotmask and Hudson De Grugy.
Kotmask, following a promising chase debut, comfortably secured victory at Plumpton 18 days ago, facing an 8lb rise but showing potential for more improvement over fences.
Hudson De Grugy, a course specialist boasting a 4-8 record at the track, triumphed in March here (2m 4f) from just 1lb lower, He may excel over longer distances these days, but he thrives on soft ground performs well fresh and the booking of Harry Cobden takes the eye.
Fast Buck made all to win at Lingfield last December and was an excellent 1 length 2nd of 8 over C&D on his next start. Not disgraced when a 14 length 3rd of 6 over C&D under a hold up ride last month. Hopefully the 9-year-old will be ridden more prominently than he was last time and if he is then he’s handicapped to go close.
1:50 – Betfair Beacons Winter Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 4f
Another modest-sized field, a common expectation for these events, where securing eight or more runners is considered fortunate.
Southoftheborder, a winner here (2m), showcased promise in victory, making him an intriguing addition to the novice hurdle division. The transition to 2m 4f should suit him well and considering trainer Nicky Henderson’s success with On The Blind Side in 2017, optimism is high.
Insurrection, trained by Paul Nicholls, who saddles last year’s winner, showed the benefit of wind surgery, when winning on hurdle debut at Exeter last month. With potential for further enhancement, he adds a competitive edge to the field.
Personal Ambition, having secured a successful hurdle debut at Warwick last month, holds merit, notably defeating Southoftheborder’s stablemate Jingko Blue. This form received a boost with the runner-up’s subsequent victory at Newbury last weekend. Trainer Ben Pauling, who had last year’s runner-up, adds depth to the race.
2:25 – Betfair Esher Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 3m
In a field with just four runners, Stay Away Fay, the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle winner, seeks to build on his recent Exeter chase debut success. Last month’s win showcased his resilience and stamina as he needed every yard of the 3m trip to win. Changing Man, the runner-up on that day, also made his chase debut and should do well over larger obstacles. However, it would be disappointing if Stay Away Fay fails to confirm the Exeter form today.
Lucinda Russell brings down Giovinco, an exciting novice chase prospect following a triumph at Aintree last month. Possessing a strong engine, Giovinco may exhibit more tactical speed compared to Stay Away Fay, adding an interesting dynamic to the contest.
3:00 – Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m
With 11 declared runners it’s the biggest field on today’s card and you can make a case for more than half of the field.
My Silver Lining made a winning seasonal reappearance at Wincanton in October and handled a 7lb rise well when a ½-length 2nd of 12 at Exeter 28 days ago. Nudged up another 2lb but look set for another big run.
Not Sure made it 3-7 over fences when winning at Wetherby (heavy) on his seasonal return last month. Up 6lb for his latest success but he proved his stamina for 3m at Wetherby and remains unexposed over this sort of trip.
Robyndzone won at Ludlow on seasonal return last month. He’s up 6lb for that success and in a deeper race. However, Ned Fox takes off 5lb which negates much of the weight rise and he should go well.
Midnight Mary is a likeable mare who has run well over fences since winning on her chase debut at Wetherby in January and made a solid return to action when a 3 ½ length 3rd of 12 at Plumpton (3m 1 ½ f) last month. She might prefer further than 3m, but soft ground will bring her stamina into play,
Animal was back to winning ways at Kempton in March and was a good 2 length 2nd of 7 at Leicester 18 days ago. A bit more improvement is required to win this off a mark of 113 but soft ground brings him firmly into the mix.
Collectors Item won two of his five starts over hurdles last season looking the type to do better over fences. Improved on a low key chase debut when a 12 ½ length 5th of 12 at Exeter last time (My Silver Lining 2nd). The 6-year-old can do better over fences and the cheekpieces go on for the first time making him an intriguing contender.
Readers of my Daily Punt column will be aware I really fancied Planned Paradise for Saturday’s London National here. I’m disappointed that he runs here, and back at three miles I don’t fancy him at all. If he was to win, I’ll just have to take it on the chin.
3:35 – Betfair Racing Podcasts Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) – 2m
I don’t normally look at Class 4 or lower handicaps, but I’ve made an exception with this concluding race.
Top weight Magical King improved on his Uttoxeter hurdle debut second when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 7 at Aintree (2m 4f) 27 days ago. A mark of 118 on handicap debut doesn’t look generous on what he’s achieved so far but at least his yard is among the winners.
Dual novice hurdle winner last season and stepped up on low-key chase debut when fifth of 12 in a handicap at Exeter (24.2f, soft). Down 2 lb and further improvement should be forthcoming. Cheekpieces applied.
Impact Du Bonheur, a winner of bumper last year when trained in France, hasn’t threatened on either start over hurdles since joining Paul Nicholls but looked a work in progress when a 20 length 4th of 9 to Southoftheborder in maiden over C&D last month. The tongue tie returns, and he’s got be respected on handicap hurdle debut for a yard that won this corresponding race last year.
Betting Advice:
I will continue to put up my selections with prices, but I will let you decide if you want to go in early or wait for BOG or indeed back them on the exchanges as I will be. If you’re doing the latter, below are the minimum acceptable prices on Friday’s selections.
I’m sticking with the Sandown handicaps for today’s selections.
Sandown
1:15 – Fast Buck – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power
3:00 – Animal – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes and Collectors Item – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – Impact Du Bonheur – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365.
Cheers
John