Hi all,
The first selections of the week and the new month today.
Newbury hosts the first of a two-days racing, featuring a Friday bonus with ITV Racing showcasing five live races. Fifty seven runners have been declared for a seven race card which offers some great prize money.
An early morning inspection will determine if racing goes ahead at Newbury this afternoon. Frost sheets are down, and the track was suitable on Thursday. However, if temperatures fall below -3°C, it’s going to be touch and go.
Even if they can race, fears arise if daytime temperatures stay near freezing on Friday, coupled with a potentially harsher frost Friday night, jeopardizing Saturday’s Coral Cup Day.
Newcastle anticipates a Saturday morning inspection for Fighting Fifth Day. Frost poses an issue, with the added possibility of snow showers complicating frost sheet removal.
Fingers crossed the meeting can go ahead today as it’s a good card.
Newbury
It was good to soft at Newbury on Thursday afternoon, but it could be a shade quicker than that. I’ am working on the assumption that it’s on the soft side of good. In truth we won’t know exactly what the going is like until after the first race has been run.
ITV Racing are covering five races from Newbury on Friday afternoon and in today’s preview I have looked at four of them.
1:50 – Hermes Allen heads the betting for the Grade 2 John Francome Novices’ Chase (1:50). He was the best of the seven entries over hurdles and trainer Paul Nicholls saddled Clan Des Obeaux to win this in 2016 but that won came into this with a previous run over fences. Of course, Hermes Allen can win but at his present odds I can leave him alone.
At bigger odds there’s a bit more value to be found with Tightenourbelts and No Ordinary Joe.
Tightenourbelts was always expected to be a better chaser than a hurdler and he’s proved that correct after just one start over the larger obstacles. He jumped superbly for novice to win at Ludlow last month and I really like him.
No Ordinary Joe is another to make his chase debut. A useful handicap hurdler whose best effort came when he was a 1 ½ length 2nd of 21 to Iroko in Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s bred for chasing and trainer Nicky Henderson won this in 2019 & 2020.
There’s been early money for Marble Sands and he’s another very much in the mix after his recent chase debut Ayr win.
2:25 – You can see why Frero Banbou heads the betting. The 8-year-old was back to form when 3rd of 10 in the Grand Sefton Chase and trainer Venetia Williams has won this race twice since 2018.
Of the rest there doesn’t seem a huge lot of value against the favourite. Kandoo Kid jumped nicely on just his second start over fences when a neck 2nd of 10 to Galop de Chasse over C&D 22 days ago. He’s 6lb higher but remains with potential.
Sail Away looked well suited to the drying ground when making all to win a handicap chase (3m) at Ayr in April. This trip may prove to be a bit short of his best, but I like a horse who’s a good jumper of a fence and the 7-year-old is certainly one of those.
There’s been some early each way support at big odds for Goose Man. The ex-Irish trained 11-year-old was returning from a mammoth 972 day layoff when comfortably winning a selling hurdle at Huntingdon on first start for Jeremy Snowden 17 days ago. This is a much tougher assignment, but he’s proved his well-being and is nicely treated on the best of his Irish chase form from early 2021.
3:00 – Marie’s Rock is the right favourite of the Newbury feature the Grade 2 Coral Long Distance Hurdle (3:00). The mare won first time up last season so goes well fresh and is the one to beat.
Paisley Park won this in 2019 and has placed in the last three renewals since. He’s 11 now but you can never rule him out can you.
Dashel Drasher was runner-up Marie’s Rock at Cheltenham in January but that came over 2m 4f and today’s three mile trip is better. Lack of a recent run took its toll on the 10-year-old when 3rd of 6 at Wetherby last month. He should be spot on fitness wise here.
3:35 – Ed Keeper showcased improvement on his handicap hurdle debut, securing a ¾-length 2nd of 11 at Ascot last month. Despite a 6lb increase and a need to brush up his jumping, the transition to 3m adds an intriguing dimension.
Ramo. triumphed one seasonal return at Ludlow (2m 5f) last month. With previous hurdle wins over 3m, the 6-year-old holds potential for further improvement, though a drawback might be a preference for soft ground.
Hyland a winner at Cheltenham last month heads the betting. He’s got be respected but the form of his Cheltenham win hasn’t been working out at I prefer the other two mentioned.
Betting Advice:
Newbury
1:50 – Tightenourbelts – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and No Ordinary Joe – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
2:25 – Goose Man – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – Ed Keeper – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John