Hi all,
Hopefully we’ll be heading into the Breeders Cup action after a profitable afternoon at Wetherby & Ascot.
Sunny weather, fast turf, and great horses. What’s not to like?
There are plenty of European challengers to cheer on
The highlight of what is a Steller card is the Breeders Cup Turf (9:50) which see’s Auguste Rodin takes on the likes of Mostahdaf, King Of Steel, Onesto and top American colt Up To The Mark who won a Grade 1 over a mile last time and takes a big step up in trip here. It’s one of the best renewals of the race that I can remember and one to really get excited about.
Let’s get into the races that I have selections in.
Santa Anita
7:10 – Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) – 1m 2f
The best of the home team looks to be In Italian, trained by Chad Brown, who has won this four times since 2012. Has a good draw for front runner in stall 1.
Inspiral five time Group 1 winner who missed Champions Day due to soft ground. Comes here instead. First run beyond a mile if she’s going to stay 1m 2f it will be around here.
Warm Heart one flop on soft ground in the Irish Oaks it’s been a season of progression for for the 3-year-old and she comes into the race having won the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks & Group 1 Prix Vermeille at Longchamp. Drop back to 1m 2f but isn’t short on pace and is big player.
Lumiere Rock improved to win a Group 2 at the Curragh and ran just as well in defeat when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 11 in the Prix de l’Opera at Lonchamp last month. Three previous winners of this race came from the Prix de l’Opera. Wide draw in stall 11 but not of it.
Japanese challenger Win Marilyn was in good form last year and came from the rear to win the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase. The 6-year-old hasn’t been close to her best form on three starts this year but doesn’t have much to find on ratings if bouncing back to form.
8:30 – FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1) – 1m
Mawj won the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket in the spring. Off for five months before making all to win a Grade 1 at Keeneland three weeks ago. Got an easy lead that day but will face pace pressure if she tries to lead here. Takes on the boys for the first time but is tough and the track should suit.
Master Of The Seas won a Grade 2 at Ascot in July and followed up in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile and finished a nose runner-up in a Grade 1 at Keeneland last month. Trainer Charlie Appleby is 9 from 18 with his runners at the Breeders Cup but stall 14 will be tough to overcome.
Kelina beat Kinross in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret (7f) at Longchamp last time. The step up to a mile will suit the filly. Owner-breeders won this race here in 2008 with the 3-year-old filly Goldikova. I really like her chances, but I would like them even more if she wasn’t in stall 11. Will be dropped in and ridden for luck which she will need.
Japanese challenger Songline is a multiple Grade 1 winner over a mile and has beaten the colts and geldings in her homeland. Well suited to quick ground she returned from a 126 day layoff with a fast finishing nose 2nd of 12 at Tokyo last month. Stall 10 isn’t ideal, but she’s got a great chance.
The North American challenge is likely to be spearheaded by Gina Romantica. She posted a career best when beating In Italian winning a Grade 1 at Keeneland 28 days ago. A light campaign suggests that Chad Brown has aimed her at the filly at this meeting. Has a good berth in stall 2.
Shirl’s Speight was a ¾ length runner-up in last year’s race at big odds and finished runner-up to Master Of The Seas in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last time. Could easily run into places once more from stall 1.
9:50 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) – 1m 4f
Epsom & Irish Derby winner Auguste Rodin was back to winning ways in the Group 1 Champion Stakes last time. Should really like the rattling fast turf although I’m not sure the short straight will suit him. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race six times and if he’s at his best Auguste Rodin will take the beating.
Mostadahf so impressive when winning the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and International Stakes at York. Missed Champions Day due to soft ground and will love the fast turf. May find there are stronger stayers over 1m 4f (best at 1m 2f) but sharp track will suit his speed.
King Of Speed had a hard race when winning the Champion Stakes at Ascot last time. No issues with quick ground but I’m not sure this sharp track will suit him as he seems to need time to hit top gear.
Onesto has had a very light campaign. Not as his best behind Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion Stakes but back to his best when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 15 to Ace Impact in the Arc last time. Likes to come off a good pace and has a good chance on ground that will suit.
Up To The Mark looks the best of the American runners beat Master Of The Seas over a mile at Keeneland last time but is a better horse over 1m 2f. Needs to settle in the early stages on his first start over 1m 4f. Has a good turn of foot and if he stays he’s a big player.
Japanese challenger Shahryar won last year’s Sheema Classic at Meydan and was a ¾ length 2nd of 18 in the Japan Cup. He’s not been at his best on two starts this year and ran poorly when last seen in action in August but has had wind surgery since. If the 5-year-old bounced back to last year’s best would have each way claims.
10:40 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1) – 1m 2f
Ushba Tesoro has won all but one of his starts on dirt including coming from behind to win the Dubai World Cup at Meydan. His only defeat on the surface coming on a wet track. He makes makes his US debut and this sharper track may not suit but if they do go hard out in front it will suit his closing style. Seems to have impressed work watchers at the track in recent days. He looks to have a good chance and he’ll do for me in an open looking race.
11:25 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) – 5f
Mick Appleby did it on Friday with Big Evs and Nunthorpe winner Live In The Dream would be a fairytale winner for his small Epsom yard. The 4-year-old ran well over 5 ½ f on his Keenland prep. Has won going around a bend at Chester and Pontefract. Back at the minimum trip, if he breaks as quick as he did at York, he will be tough to peg back. The start will be crucial for him, and he will face pressure.
Aesop’s Fables looked much improved for the fitting of the first time blinkers when a length 3rd of 18 to Highfield Princess in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp last month. He was strong at the finish at Longchamp. Will be dropped in from stall 8 and ridden for luck. Can go close if they go too hard up front.
Motorious has done well on fast turf since switching from the Stuart Williams yard. Won a Grade 3 here (6 ½ f) in March and went close in a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs (5 ½ f). Looked as good ever when returning from a four month absence when winning at Del Mar (5f) in September. If they go to hard up front, it will set it up for a closer like him.
Caravel is a top American sprinter who made all to win this last year at Keeneland and ran even better on RPR’s when winning a 6f Grade 1 at Belmont (firm) in June. The mare hasn’t been at his best on her last two starts but they have come rain softened ground and she need’s fast turf. Won’t be able to dominate like she did 12 months ago but set for another big run.
11:59 – Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) – 6f
Dr. Schivel finished a nose runner-up in this race at Del Mar two years ago. Only had one start last year when third in the Group 1 Golden Shaheen at Meydan. The 5-year-old has been back to his best this year winning two of his four starts both over C&D, the latest of them coming 35 days ago. Has got a handy low draw for a prominent racer in a contest which looks light on speed. He’s my idea of the bet of the evening.
Betting Advice:
7:10 – Warm Heart – 1pt win – 11/4 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
8:30 – Kelina – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Wiliam Hill
9:50 – Onesto – 1pt win – 15/2 @ William Hill
10:40 – Ushba Tesoro – 1pt win – 4/1 @ William Hill
11:25 – Caravel – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
11:59 – Dr. Schivel – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John