Hi all,
A fantastic weekend of racing gets underway today. The 2023 Breeders’ Cup meeting gets under way at Santa Anita this evening. It’s ‘Future Stars Friday’ which means it’s the juveniles who take centre stage. You can watch all five Championship races live on ITV3 this evening.
The Listed Irish EBF Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes (1.25) is the feature race of a nine race card at Newmarket which gets underway at 11:15. Yes, it’s not an error, it really is 11:15. It’s not often you see a flat meeting with such an early start.
Sadly, Wetherby can’t race. There was plenty of rain around the area on Thursday and the course failed a 7am inspection. It should be mainly dry Friday so there’s a chance that Charlie Hall Day will be able to take place.
We’ve lost Down Royal’s two day Ladbrokes Festival of Racing due to a waterlogged track. That’s disappointing news as it’s a good meeting. However, the good news is that the meeting has been moved to next Friday & Saturday.
Half of today’s preview has had to be jettisoned due to the abandonment of the Wetherby’s card. So the focus is now solely on Santa Anita and the Breeders Cup. It’s a meeting I love, and I will have plenty of selections for you over the next couple of days.
Breeders Cup 2023
Santa Anita
9:00 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1) – 5f
It’s a big night for trainer Mick Appleby as he has early bird favourite Big Evs here.The Royal Ascot winning juvenile was quickly away and made all to win the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster last time. If he breaks as quickly as he did at Doncaster from stall 4 he’ll be tough to peg back. However, Big Evs will face pressure for the lead with No Nay Mets and Tiger Belle in the line-up. Looks the most likely winner if he breaks as quickly as he did at Doncaster.
We haven’t seen Crimson Advocate since she beat subsequent Lowther Stakes winner Relief Rally in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. The US trained filly is well suited to a quick 5f and can win this, but the long layoff is a slight concern albeit her trainer says this has always been the plan.
The likely strong pace could set this up for a closer and the one to take advantage could be the Aidan O’Brien trained filly Cherry Blossom. She improved for getting on faster ground when a length runner-up to Relief Rally in the Lowther Stakes at York and was back to form when a 2 ¼ length 4th of 11 in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last time. The drop back to strongly run 5f could really suit the daughter of No Nay Never.
Verdict: I wouldn’t put anyone of Big Evs who’s primed for a big run from stall 4. Crimson Advocate was a good winner at Royal Ascot and is a big player if she can overcome her long absence. Cherry Blossom could be suited by the drop back to 5f and she’s the value play.
10:20 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) – 1m
Carla’s Way was a good winner of the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes (7f) at Newmarket last time. The pair back in second & third that day returned to finish 1-2 in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile next time to give the form a big boost. She should stay the mile and looks the best of the European fillies.
Porta Fortuna won the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and bounced back to winning ways back on quick ground in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes (6f) last time. If he stays a mile, it will be around here, but I think there are stronger stayers among her rivals.
Aidan O’Brien won this last year with Meditate and he’s got a live contender with Content. The daughter of Galileo improved for the step up to a mile when winning a Group 3 at the Curragh last month. Ryan Moore will hold her up and if she gets a good gallop, she’ll be finishing her race better than most.
French challenger Les Pavots improved to win a Group 2 at Deauville two starts back and was a respectable 5 ¾ length 3rd of 10 to Opera Singer in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp last month. She has a similar profile to Flotilla who won this for France in 2012. Before the draw I really liked her chances but stall 14 will be tough to overcome.
The best of the North American fillies look to be She Feels Pretty and Hard To Justify. The first named maintained her unbeaten record when winning a Grade 1 at Woodbine last tim. She looked looked a smart prospect when winning last time and is open to further improvement. Her sire Karakontie won around here at the 2014 Breeders Cup. Another not ideally drawn in stall 11.
Chad Brown has saddled the winner of this race four times in the past ten years which makes Hard To Justify of interest. The well-bred daughter of Justify made it 2-2 when winning the Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes at Aqueduct 30 days ago. Fast turf suits and there should be more to come from her.
Verdict: Carla’s Way has solid claims and is a worthy favourite. I can also see Aidan O’Brien’s filly Content going well. My two picks though are She Feels Pretty and French challenger Les Pavots despite both having awkward wide draws to overcome.
11:40 – Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) – 1m
Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2015 including last year. He saddles the first and second in the ante post betting River Tiber & Unquestionable. River Tiber won the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and was a 2 ¼ length 3rd of 9 to Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket last time. Looked in need of further than 6f that day and should stay a mile around here. Has the best form and can win what doesn’t look the strongest of renewals.
Unquestionable was back to form when a length 2nd of 10 to Rosallion in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp. Looked suited by the step up to 7f last time and should stay a mile.
Agate Road came from the rear to win a strongly run Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes at Aqueduct 30 last month. We probably haven’t seen the best of the colt yet and looks capable of bigger performance but there doesn’t look to be a lot of early pace which would be a worry.
The lack of pacesetters in the line-up means it might be worth considering My Boy Prince. The Canadian trained colt has won his last two starts at Woodbine and looks the sole front runner in the field.
Verdict: It’s River Tiber for me ahead of stablemate Unquestionable in what doesn’t look the strongest of renewals.
Betting Advice:
Santa Anita
9:00 – Cherry Blossom – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
10:20 – Les Pavots – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and She Feels Pretty – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Cheers
John