Hi all,
Not surprisingly Saturday’s Newbury was called off on Friday morning due to a waterlogged track. Doncaster couldn’t race on Friday but there’s a chance it’s Futurity Trophy fixture can take place if the track doesn’t get more than the forecast overnight rain.
No problems with Day 2 of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. The raced at jump HQ’s yesterday and the only surprise to me was that going was good, good to soft in places. I was expecting it to be softer. I only got back from my break on Friday evening so haven’t had any chance to look at the Cheltenham action but the last two handicaps aside it looked a fairly punter friendly day.
ITV Racing are covering racing from three courses on Saturday. Four races from Cheltenham and three from Doncaster. The loss of the Newbury card means ITV are also taking the Edinburgh Gin Chase (A Limited Handicap) (1:29) live from Kelso this afternoon.
It’s good ground at Cheltenham, Heavy at Doncaster, if they survive a precautionary inspection at 7:30am and soft at Kelso.
I’m starting today’s short preview at Doncaster where the highlight is the Kameko Futurity Trophy Stakes (2:10).
Doncaster
2:10 – Kameko Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
The final Group 1 of the British Flat season sees six colt’s line-ups for a race which has been won for the last two seasons by Aidan O’Brien.
O’Brien saddles second favourite Diego Velazquez. The unbeaten colt looked like a smart prospect when landing a Group 2 at Leopardstown 49 days ago. He clearly has strong claims on form but on pedigree there must be a doubt as to his effectiveness on heavy ground. Mind you last year’s winner Auguste Rodin ploughed through the Doncaster mud win 12 months ago.
The Charlie Appleby trained Ancient Wisdom is on top on Official Ratings after his win the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket 14 days ago. A mile on soft ground suited him last time and the colt sets a high standard.
Dancing Gemini improved to comfortably win a Listed race here (soft) last month. The son of Camelot should be suited by today’s mile and can’t be discounted given he handles rain softened ground.
God’s Window knew his job when winning a C&D maiden last month. The ground was soft that day and the form his win is working out well. Thrown into the deep end on just his second career start. More progress can be expected from the colt and he’s one to keep on side.
2:45 – William Hill Prospect Stakes (Registered as The Doncaster Stakes) (Listed Race) – 7f
Ballymount Boy was found out in Group 1 company at Longchamp last time but will appreciate today’s drop in Class. Runner-up to Vandeek in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood in August. The son of Camacho will like the drop back to 6f and return to soft ground. He sets a good standard and is the one to beat.
Moswaat, trained by Roger Varian who won this race in 2018, could be the one to chase home the favourite. The son of Kodiac overcame a poor start to land a Yarmouth novice 12 days ago. He’s capable of more improvement and given he handled soft ground last time needs to be respected.
3:20 – William Hill Farewell Flat Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Top weight Intrinsic Bond has disappointed on his last two starts but a reproductionof his ½ length 3rd of 22 to Annaf in the valuable Portland Handicap here last month would see the 6-year-old go close here.
Desperate Hero ploughed through the mud to win at Nottingham 10 days ago. The 3-year-old is 5lb higher in better race but he’s an inform sprinter who probably remains on a competitive mark and isn’t discounted.
Cheltenham
I have just had a look at the three handicap races being shown live on ITV.
1:15 – Epic Value At William Hill Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m
Haddex Des Obeaux jumped well when making all to win at Doncaster and Warwick on his final two starts last season. Starts the new campaign from a 10lb higher mark than when last seen in action 287 days ago. The 6-year-old good jumper of a fence and remains an exciting two mile prospect this season. Capable of going close if not taken on for the lead here and getting some juice in the ground
Before Midnight won this race in 2021 for previous trainer Sam Thomas. Now with Fergal O’Brien he’s now 9lb below his last winning mark. The 10-year-old has tended to produce his very best form on good ground and shaped with plenty of encouragement on stable debut over hurdles at Chepstow 15 days ago.
The connections of Red Rookie will be hoping that Cheltenham has received plenty of rain overnight for his seasonal return. The 8-year-old is more than capable of winning a race like this off a mark of 140 when he gets his ground. Trainer Emma Lavelle is 5-15 with her runners in the past 14 days which is a positive.
Top weight Notlongtillmay won his first three starts over fences last season and ended the campaign with an improved 3 ¼ length 2nd of 7 to Stage Star in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase (2m 4f) here at the Festival in March. Drops back in trip here but is ground versatile and won first time up last season.
2:25 – Epic Jumps Season At William Hill Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 1f
Lord Accord won this corresponding race 12 months ago off 1lb lower. He goes well on a sound surface, and this is his time of year. He ran well for a long way over an inadequate 2m 5f at Warwick on his seasonal return 23 days ago and looks set for a big run.
Henry De Bromhead has a couple of live contenders in Amirite & Whacker Clan. The first named won first time up last season and finished in the placed in two Graded novice chases. Needs to bounce back from a poor effort when returned the 11/2 favourite for the Irish Grand National on his final start last season. Likely something was amiss that day and remains with potential on his second season as a chaser. Whacker Clan found plenty for pressure when winning a Tramore Handicap Chase (2m 5 ½ f) 69 days ago. He stays this trip and although a 5lb rise in the weights makes things tougher he’s a major contender despite Rachel Blackmore seemingly going for Amirite.
Top weight Kinondo Kwetu improved to win six of his nine starts over fences last season. The 7-year-old produced a career best on RPR’s in defeat when 3 ¼ length 3rd of 16 to one of today’s rivals Twig in a similar race at Uttoxeter in July. Get a 5lb pull in the weights with Twig and must be high on the shortlist provided the ground doesn’t ease too much. Twig a winner of four of his five starts over regulation fences shouldn’t be far away even off a 5lb higher mark but he’s another who probably doesn’t want the ground to ease too much before post time. Trainer Ben Pauling had a handicap chase winner here yesterday.
3:00 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 3m
Gortmillish has a nice low weight on his handicap hurdle debut. Danny Gilligan takes off a handy 5lb and the 7-year-old must be high on the shortlist.
Bugs Moran has returned from a 15 month lay off with two excellent placed efforts in valuable handicap hurdles at the Galway & Listowel Festivals. He’s won over three miles in the past so today’s step up in trip should suit the 6-year-old.
Bashful Boy was a respectable 3 ½ length 4th of 31 in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket two weeks ago. First start beyond 2m 5 ½ f over hurdles but 7-year-old should be suited by 3m if his run in the Cesarewitch anything is to go by. His best hurdling form has come on good ground but he handled soft well enough at Newmarket.
Rock My World improved to win a Grade 2 novice hurdle here (2m 4 ½ f) in January. Needs to bounce back from a couple of poor runs here on his last starts, including when pulling up in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the Festival. Yard among the winners and the 5-year-old could do better on handicap hurdle debut.
Hyland looked to have improved when making a winning seasonal return at Warwick (2m 5f) 23 days ago. The 6-year-old is up in Class here but a 6lb rise in the weights is workable and he should be fine returned to 3m here.
Kelso
1:29 – Edinburgh Gin Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Class 2) – 3m 2f
Grand National winner Corach Rambler carries top weight of 11-12 on his seasonal return. He remains the one to beat but he’s 13lb higher than when winning at Aintree and needed his seasonal return last season.
Empire Steel is a three time winner at Kelso and 4-8 on soft/heavy ground. He’s got a good record off a lay off and although he didn’t stay 4m in the Scottish Grand National when last seen in action this is more his trip. Gets 16lb from Corach Rambler today and if that one is short on race fitness could be the one to take advantage.
Elvis Mail is a four time winner at Kelso and proved his stamina for an extended 3m 2f when winning a handicap chase (Class 2) over C&D in March. Has a 5lb rise in the weights to contend with but is unexposed over staying trips, goes well on soft ground and won on his seasonal return 12 months ago.
Betting Advice:
Doncaster
2:10 – God’s Window – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral
3:20 – Intrinsic Bond – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral
Cheltenham
1:15 – Red Rookie – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral
2:25 – Kinondo Kwetu – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral
3:00 – Bashful Boy – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral and Hyland – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral.
Cheers
John