Hi all,
It’s Champions Day. Doncaster’s November meeting may be the historic final curtain of the flat season, but Champions Day has now become the de facto end of flat season.
I have previewed all six races on Champions Day which you can watch them all live on ITV Racing.
Ascot: Champions Day
Fingers crossed Ascot has missed most of the heavy rain bought by Storm Babet. The going was described as soft on Friday morning on the straight and round courses and good, good to soft in places on the inner track.
A decision to switch the races due on the round course to the hurdles track was expected on Friday lunchtime. Some connections will be happy with a change, but some won’t. Since Champions Day was first inaugurated in 2011 the inner course has only been used once in 2019.
1:15 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) – 2m
On soft ground this looks between last year’s top stayer Kyprios and Trueshan who bids for a race four timer. Broome is likely to help make the pace for his stablemate Kyprios and that won’t allow Trueshan an uncontested lead which he got when winning the Prix du Cadran at Longchamp last time. I was underwhelmed with Kyprios’ return in the Irish St Leger but if he’s back to last year’s best he’s wins and would be value at around 11/8. On this year’s form Trueshan might be a bit of value if he goes to around 5/2. That said I think Kyprios is the most likely winner. It’s a no bet race for me.
1:50 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
In truth this year’s renewal looks a Group 2 masquerading as a Group 1
Kinross won last year’s race and soft ground really suits the 6-year-old and he’s a worthy short- priced favourite. He’s the Group 1 winner in the race and the class act and the most likely winner.
I thought Vadream looked value at 16/1 earlier in the week. However, this proven mudlark is a best priced 13/2 now which doesn’t make much appeal.
I also liked Rohaan earlier in the week and at double figure odds I still do. He was a 3 length fourth in last year’s but did best of the group that raced more far side. The 5-year-old gained a fifth C&D success in handicap 15 days ago and although I don’t think he’ll beat Kinross at his best he won’t be far away. Ryan Moore 3-6 on the gelding is back in the saddle for the first time since winning the Wokingham Handicap on him.
I’m not sure Believing wants the ground to testing (has won on soft) but the 3-year-old posted a career best when a ¾ length 3rd of 16 in the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup last month and has each way claims.
Verdict: Kinross probably wins and will be the banker bet of plenty of multiples. Course specialist Rohaan can never be discounted here and Ryan Moore is back in the saddle for the first time since winning the Wokingham Handicap over C&D in June last year. Believing outran her odds (66/1) when a close-up third in the Betfair Sprint Cup last time and could get into the money once more.
2:25 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f
A good sized field of 14 fillies & mares are set to meet the starter. Just 3lb separates the top sis on Official Ratings.
Free Wind and Jackie Oh are vying for favouritism. The first named will be hoping that the race is switched to the hurdles track as she doesn’t want testing ground. No ground concerns for Jackie Oh although she must prove her stamina for 1m 4f.
Bluestocking disappointed in a Listed race at Chester last time but the first time cheekpieces go on though and a reproduction of her Irish Oaks runner-up performance would see her very much in the mix.
A good stamina test will suit French challenger Rue Boissonade. She won on heavy ground earlier in the season and isn’t out of this on Official Ratings.
Terms of Endearment goes well on soft ground and a strongly run 1m 4f will suit. The 4-year-old improved to win a Group 3 at Cork (heavy) in August and can’t be totally dismissed.
Verdict: Rue Boissonade & Terms of Endearment would prefer the race not to be switched to the hurdles track as both would probably prefer more of a stamina test. Bluestocking’s finishing effort at Chester last time was disappointing but the first time cheekpieces are applied and I think she can win this if the headgear has the desired effect.
3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
This has the potential to be the race of Champions Day. Paddington is back at a mile and will like the softer ground. He’s a worthy favourite but does face several talented rivals and there’s three that I would rather be with.
Tahiyra is unbeaten on her last three starts in Group 1 company and her potent turn of foot makes her a serious rival to Paddington. I think she’s capable of an even better performance than she’s shown so far. However, will heavy ground blunt her speed, and will she run if its heavy? If the ground is ok for her, I think she can beat Paddington and she looks value at around 4/1
Nashwa looked well suited to the drop back to a mile when winning the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket in July. The 4-year-old comes here rather than go for the Champion Stakes over 1m 2f. A high class filly at her best and is very much one to consider.
I have fancied French challenger Big Rock for this race since he finished runner-up to Arc winner Ace Impact in the French Derby. He should get the testing ground he needs but I’m hoping connections let him go from the front rather than change tactics and hold him up which has been suggested.
Verdict: I’m happy to let Paddington win at present odds. If Tahiyra runs, then I think she looks better value than the favourite at 4/1. A strongly run mile will suit Nashwa and there was plenty to like about her win in the Falmouth Stakes when dropped back to a mile. I have had French challenger Big Rock in mind for this for some time and the more testing the ground the better for the colt.
3:45 – Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f
Like 12 months ago nine are set to line up for the most valuable race on Champions Day. If the race is switched to the inner track, it will benefit International Stakes winner Mostahdaf. He’s the best horse in the race on ratings but does need good or quicker ground to be at his best. There’s a good chance he won’t run.
I don’t think there’s a standout contender on the likely slower ground and it’s a very winnable race.
Last year’s winner Bay Bridge wasn’t really suited by quick ground when 6th in the Arc last time. He likely needs soft in the going description to win, for a second year running, but if he gets it can do so.
French challenger Horizon Dore is a rather surprising ante post favourite. The gelding completed a four timer when winning the Group 2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp three weeks ago. He’s going the right way for sure but has yet to run in Group 1 company.
King Of Steel runner-up in the Derby and third in the King George VI in July can go close on ground and over a distance that should suit. There’s a Group 1 in the colt and it could come today. If any jockey can get him to win its Frankie Dettori.
Via Sistina runs here rather than the Fillies & Mares race earlier on the card. A Group 1 winner having landed the Pretty Polly Stakes (1m 2f) at the Curragh in the spring, and she was only beaten a nose in a Group 1 at Deauville last time. Goes well with juice in the ground and isn’t of this.
My Prospero was a ½ length behind Bay Bridge in last year’s race. He bounced back to winning ways in a Goodwood Listed race (soft) last time. He’ll need to better what he did last time by some way but can’t be totally ruled out.
Royal Rhyme only won an Ayr Listed race last time but he’s going the right way and is 3-3 on soft ground. He’ll need to have improved again to win but that’s possible he can. However, he does need plenty of juice in the ground to do so.
The outsider of the whole field is Point Lonsdale. The Aidan O’Brien trained 4-year-old has been used as a pacemaker on his last two starts. However, he is 4-4 on soft/heavy ground and will be ridden to achieve his best possible position. I don’t think he’ll be good enough to win a race like this but if it was soft and he was to get an uncontested lead he could get into the places. I’m probably mad to think it but the 66/1 available with Coral looked big to me.
Verdict: If the ground was on the quick side of good Mostahdaf would win this. As it is he might not even run. Royal Rhyme is an improver, but he would be of more interest if the race was run on the round course rather than hurdles course. Horizon Dore is a 3-year-old colt going the right way and if the race is run in the hurdles track, he could well make his first start in Group 1 company a winning one. Last year’s winner Bay Bridge will love the easier ground and could well defend his crown. Even outsider Point Lonsdale isn’t totally ruled out and could get into the places. King Of Steel can win a Group 1 horse and provided he gets a decent pace to chase is my idea of the winner. I know he ran poorly on heavy ground as a juvenile, but he was an immature horse that day.
4:25 – Balmoral Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Given there’s £103,080 on offer to the winner, not surprisingly a maximum field of 20 is set to go to post.
Migration is 6lb higher than when winning the Lincoln Handicap in the spring. He’s only had won race since but goes well off a layoff, loves the mud and I thought he was a bit unlucky in the run when 8th in last year’s race. Might find the weight anchoring him from a win perspective but I can see him going close.
Raadobarg has been plying his trade in Group/Listed company since winning the Irish Lincolnshire in March 2023. Drops back into handicap for the first time since winning the above race. He’s a consistent sort and will like underfoot conditions but doesn’t find winning easy.
Sonny Liston is proven over C&D, having finished runner up in the Royal Hunt Cup in June. That’s always a plus on Ascot’s straight course. A 4lb rise for finishing a short head runner-up to Liberty Lane at Doncaster demands more from the 4-year-old. He travelled through that Doncaster race like he’s on a good mark. Probably needs to be produced as late as possible.
Baradar won the valuable International Stakes (handicap) here in July. That was over 7f and he’s since followed up at Doncaster over an extended 6 ½ f. Soft ground suits the 5-year-old but he’s 5lb higher than when winning at Doncaster and a mile on testing ground stretches his stamina as shown in the Lincoln Handicap.
Al Mubhir caught the eye when a 4 ½ length 8th of 20 in the Golden Mile at Goodwood two starts back. The 4-year-old wasn’t disgraced when a 1¾ lengths 3rd of 7 in a Listed race (7f) at Newbury last time. The return to a mile and soft ground are pluses. Trainer William Haggas won this race in 2021 and Al Mubhir is high on my race shortlist.
Of those towards the bottom of the weights Vetiver and first reserve Escobar do interest me most.
Vetiver won a Carlisle Listed race at the end of June and she returned from a 12 week absence with a respectable 6 length 3rd of 10 to Matilda Picotte in a Group 3 (7f) at Doncaster last month. Lacks the experience of a big field handicap but the 3-year-old comes into the race fresher than most.
Escobar isn’t the horse that won this race in 2019and was well beaten over 6f at York 7 days ago but he’s too handicapped to ignore. He won the Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) here (7f) last October and is 18lb lower. Hollie Doyle has been booked and if he gets in the race (first reserve) could go run well at big odds on ground that suits. You can make cases for two of Escobar’s stablemates Blue For You and Bopedro. The latter caught my eye when a 3 length 7th of 17 to Atrium in Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) here (7f) two weeks ago. A mile suits him better, but I wonder if he’s better going around a bend and really testing ground is a concern. Danny Tudhope takes the ride on Bopedro who was a length 3rd of 34 to Astro King in Cambridgeshire at Newmarket last month. The 7-year-olds off the same mark here and has won on soft ground in the past.
Awaal is winless this season but has run some cracking efforts to his name.The 4-year-oldfinished runner-up to Migration in the Lincoln Handicap on his seasonal return and has also finished third in both the Royal Hunt Cup over C&D and Bunbury Cup (7f). His form line on heavy ground is 12 so for that reason alone must be respected.
Verdict: As competitive a handicap as we have seen all season. Migration, Raadobarg & Al Mubhir are high on my shortlist on what should be suitably soft ground. I’m a bit concerned about stall 23 for Al Mubhir but if it’s not an inconvenience he won’t be far away. Awaal had good form in big field mile handicaps and likes testing ground. Like Al Mubhir he’s drawn high though and if the field does go far side that would be a worry. Escobar has become a well handicapped horse and on a going day would go close if getting into the race. The unexposed 3-year -old filly Vetiver could have a good draw in stall 3 and can’t be ruled out.
The only question left is do I play two or three in the race? I have gone with two but will probably add Escobar if he sneaks in as first reserve.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
1:50 – Rohaan – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral
2:25 – Bluestocking – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral
3:05 – Big Rock – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral and Tahiyra – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Paddy Power & William Hill.
4:25 – Al Mubhir – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral and Raadobarg – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John