Hi all,
This weekend’s racing isn’t at the same level as Arc Weekend but it’s decent enough for this time in the season.
Newmarket’s Group 1 The Sun Chariot Stakes (3.15) is the weekend’s big race. Ascot has two Group 3’s on its Saturday card. However, the valuable Howden Challenge Cup (Handicap) is the weekend’s big betting race.
Redcar’s most valuable race of the season, the Listed William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (2:25) takes place on Saturday. It’s one of the valuable sales races run during the season and has £85,065 on offer to the winner. There’s also a big sales race at Newmarket (2:05) which has £150,000 in guaranteed prize money.
ITV4 are covering the best of the action from Newmarket & Ascot & Redcar on an eight race card this afternoon.
I’m going to start Saturday’s shorter than normal preview at Newmarket.
Newmarket
The Sun Chariot Stakes (3:15) looks at mercy of Inspiral who bids for fifth Group 1 success in this afternoon’s race. Her biggest rival looks to be French challenger Mqse De Sevigne who has won her last two starts both in Group 1 contests. She seems to be improving with racing, but today’s much quicker ground is an unknown for her. Inspiral’s stablemate Coppice needs quick ground to be at her best and needs the front two in the betting to underperform if she’s to get her head in front in this company. Heredia has won her last two starts in Listed and Group 3 company. She takes a big step up in class here but looks worth her place in the line-up. Likely needs a decent gallop to chase and if she gets it, can run a big race.
The £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (2:05) isn’t a race that I have looked at in detail. Zoulu Chief will be tough to beat here if reproducing his York Ebor Festival nursery success. Woodhay Wonder improved to win a 15-runner valuable sales race on the other course last time. Could be capable of better but needs to improve again to beat an inform Zoulu Chief. Midnite Runner improved to win a Thirsk novice (7f) last month. He looks the type to progress with racing and needs serious consideration despite the drop back to 6f.
1:30 – Totnes a three time winner on the all-weather earlier in the season showed she’s just as effective on turf when winning a Chepstow handicap and when a slightly unlucky 1 ¾ length 2nd of 8 to Balance Play at Newbury 14 days ago. Just 1lb higher here and looks set to go well.
2:40 – Divina Grace bids for the hat trick after winning at Bath and a much improved success over C&D 9 days ago. Now 5lb higher in a slightly better race but she ticks the all-important boxes marked going, course & distance and is a 3-year-old filly going the right way.
The likes of Queen Emma, Decoration and Long Ago are all capable of more improvement, in particularly the last named who makes her handicap debut and will appreciate the sound surface.
Ascot
1:50 – Likely favourite Emaraaty Ana isn’t the horse he used to be, but he’s got 7lb in hand of his nearest rival in the Listed Rous Stakes (5f) and will like the drying ground.
The 3-year-old Rage Of Bamby could turn out to be his biggest rival. The filly, a useful juvenile, ran no sort of race on seasonal return in April but was seen in a much better light on her return from a 4 month absence when a neck 2nd of 14 in 5f handicap at York’s Ebor Festival. Finished 2 ½ length and two places behind the favorite back at York (6f) last month. Less exposed than most of her rivals but must be respected back at 5f on hopefully quickish ground.
2:25 – The Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (1m 4f) is another race that I haven’t taken to much interest in, and it looks between the two Shadwell horses Al Aasy & Israr. The first named comes into the race in good form and should prove too good for seven rivals if he’s on a going day.
3:00 – The second of the day’s Group 3 contests the Bengough Stakes (6f). Commanche Falls won a Listed race at the Curragh and followed up in a Group 3 at Newbury in July. Back to winning ways in a Listed race at York last month. Even under his 3lb plenty looks the one to beat.
Trainer Michael Appleby has a couple of lively contenders in Annaf & Juan Les Pins. Annaf defied top weight to win the valuable Portland Handicap at Doncaster last month. Looks set for a big chance getting 3lb from Commanche Falls. Juan Les Pins is well suited to quick ground and has been a big improver in the last 12 months. The 6-year-old produced a career best last time when ¾ length 2nd of 8 to Commanche Falls in a York Listed race last month. He’s likely to be better positioned than most in a race that does seem to lack pace.
3:25 – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) – 7f
The big betting race of the weekend. I tipped up last year’s winner Escobar (25/1) and stablemate Orbaan (33/1) on Wednesday ante post.
James Fanshawe has a couple of lively contenders in Fresh & Hickory among the entries. Fresh is a three time course winner, including two over C&D. He’s not been disgraced on his last two starts over 6f and can never be discounted here. Hickory was a ½ length 2nd of 25 to Baradar in the International Stakes (Handicap) two starts back and ran just as well when 3rd of 14 over C&D 28 days ago. Slightly easier ground would suit the 5-year-old as will better run race but he’s another very much in the mix.
Provided the rain stays away and the ground is on the quick side of good, Bless Him must be considered. The 9-year-old does require a strong pace to chase to win which makes him a bit of a hostage to fortune in that regard but he’s on a good mark when all the cards fall right though.
4:45 – Not on ITV but a competitive Class 2 handicap run over 5f and one I like. Intrinsic Bond won the Great St Wilfrid Handicap last year for his previous trainer and looked better than ever when winning over C&D on his first start for his new yard in July. The 6-year-old bounced back from a poor run at York when a ½ length 3rd of 22 in the valuable Portland Handicap two starts back. Needs to bounce back from another poor run at York last time but that possible back over a C&D that suits.
Harry Brown did well from a poor draw when a 6 ½ length 9th of 26 in the valuable Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) at the Royal meeting in June. Did best of the smaller group far side that day and shaped like he can win a race like this off his present mark when all the cards fall right.
Call Me Ginger got the strong pace he needs when gaining a second C&D success here in September. Can never be discounted back here in strongly run race.
Tees Spirit a quick ground Listed winner at Tipperary (5f) last summer bounced back to form when a ¾ length 2nd of 12 Raasel at Haydock two starts back. Softish ground was an excuse for a below par run in the Portland Handicap last time. The 5-year-old is off the same mark as at Haydock and looks well treated on the best of last year’s form.
Redcar
2:45 – William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed Race) – 6f
The most valuable race run during Redcar’s flat season. Dragon Leader completed the hat trick when winning a valuable sales race at York’s Ebor Festival. Not quite at his best on easier ground when a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 17 in another sales race at Doncaster last month. Provided the ground hasn’t eased further from good on Friday he’s the one to beat. The short-priced favourite is a token selection in a non-betting race for me.
Betting Advice:
A poor start to the month for the service and given I’m not certain to have any selections on Sunday, watch your inboxes for updates, I could really do with a big Saturday.
Newmarket
1:30 – Totnes – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral
2:40 – Divina Grace – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral and 1pt win – Long Ago – 13/2 @ Coral
Ascot
3:00 – Juan Les Pins – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral
3:35 – Bless Him – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Bet365
4:45 – Harry Brown – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral and Tees Spirit – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral.
Cheers
John