Hi all,
A tough day for punters on Thursday at the Newmarket July Festival. However, a couple of nice priced each way bets landed and Duke Of Hazzard’s win at 10/1 (BOG) means a profit for us on the day.
Newmarket July Festival – Day 2
1:50 – One Of three Mark Johnston trained runners, a race he has won five times in the past ten years. Oasis Prince, showed a good battling attitude, when putting a career best to win at Yarmouth in the hands of today’s jockey Jamie Spencer. The return to quick ground suited the colt that day and he’s has now 3 wins from 4 runs on good or quicker ground. Steps up to 1m 2f but there is enough stamina on the dam side to think he will stay the trip. Up 5lb for his Yarmouth win but his improvement may not have levelled off just yet.
Oasis Prince – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:25 – Daahyeh, impressed when winning the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. Looks capable of winning this if she’s as effective on the quicker ground she faces today. A solid looking market leader. Celtic Beauty was beaten just 1 ½ lengths by the favourite at Royal Ascot. She capable of getting closer here especially if the going remains on the quicker side of good. Just a shame the each-way option isn’t available.
Celtic Beauty – 7/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
3:00 – The claims of ante post favourite Ben Vrackie are there for all to see. The 4-year-old returned from a 262-day absence to finish just a short head behind Baghdad in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot. The handicapper has only raised the 4-year-old 4lb for that effort so he’s a major player but at 3/1 he looks plenty short enough in the betting. The extra two furlongs should be fine but there doesn’t look to be much pace in the race, but he will need to be ridden much closer than he was at Ascot.
Secret Advisor, won the Melrose Handicap at the Ebor Festival back in 2017. The 5-year-old was then down the field in the Duke Of Edinburgh on his first run since his York win. He’s entitled to have needed that and has been well backed in the ante-post market. At 6/1 he looks plenty short enough in a race as competitive as this even though this race has probably been the geldings target.
Outbox, trained by Simon Crisford, looks the only genuine front runner in the field. He makes his handicap debut of what looks a workable mark off 102. The four-year-old won his three starts last season and made a highly encouraging seasonal reappearance when beaten just a head in Listed race at Chantilly 21-days ago. The lightly raced gelding could be tough to pass if he gets an uncontested lead.
Desert Wind won a valuable 1m 4f handicap on Kempton’s polytrack 37-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 5lb for that performance, but his victory marked him down as a useful handicapper. Another with stamina doubts but trainer Ed Vaughan is 3 winners from 10 runners 30% +8.75 in the past 14-days so he needs respecting, despite his best form so far coming on the synthetics.
Verdict: Outbox looks more better value that the front two in the market and Desert Wind is useful on the synthetics and can outrun his odds for an inform yard, if as good on the grass.
Outbox – 7/1 @Bet365 & Ladbrokes
Desert Wind – 18/1 @ Bet365 – each way
3:35 – There’s no Alpha Centauri in this year’s renewal and in all truth, it doesn’t look a race full of quality for a Group 1 contest.
Qabala was an excellent 3rd in the 1,000 Guineas before running poorly in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. She scoped abnormally after that race so can be forgiven that run. If she reproduces her earlier form when winning the Nell Gwyn and placing in the Guineas, she’s got a big chance.
Qabala – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:20 – Just the seven have been declared, which is a disappointing turnout for this 5f Class 2 handicap. Shamshon won this race in 2017, he’s 7lb lower this time around and has good chance of winning this again. Orvar & Lord Riddiford were 4th and 5th in a valuable Curragh 5f Handicap last time. The former improved on his recent York and was doing his best work at the finish and could have finished a bit closer with a clearer run inside the final furlong. He’s down to his last winning mark and can win this. Lord Riddiford did best of the drawn low in the Curragh race and Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride. There shouldn’t be much between him and Orvar again.
Orvar – 10/3 @ Paddy Power & William Hill
Shamshon – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Cheers
John