Hi all,
Great prize money, great racing, and great crowds. Yes, it’s time for York’s Ebor Festival which gets underway on Wednesday. It’s without question my favourite meeting of the summer and one I want to do well at.
The first couple of days of the meeting should take place mainly in dry conditions. Sadly, there could be some light rain on Friday and some showers on Saturday. Hopefully there won’t be too much of the wet stuff and the meeting takes place on a sound surface.
Just four were declared for the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes on Tuesday.
It’s the smallest field for the International Stakes since Sea The Stars faced four rivals in 2009. However, you spin it this must come as a disappointment for the racecourse given the race has £1,000,000 guaranteed in prize money.
The small field sizes aren’t just reserved for Tuesday’s Group 1 contest. The Group 3 Acomb Stakes has attracted six and the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes just five runners. I suspect poor field sizes in the non-handicaps will be a trend over the four days.
In today’s preview I’m looking at all seven races on day one of the festival. Plus, my betting advice and Daily Punt System qualifiers can be found at the end of the main piece.
For those of you who don’t read the Daily Punt. This is a micro angle that has been profitable at the last six Ebor Festival – £16.50 to a £1 level stake in 2022 or +25.15 BFSP.
There will be plenty of qualifiers over the four days with multiple entries in some races. So, if you’re going to follow this year’s qualifiers you can’t cherry pick them. It’s a case of all or nothing. Last year I backed all the qualifiers to a few pounds at BFSP and will do the same again. Conversely you can take an early price with any bookmaker offering BOG.
Right without further ado let’s get down to Wednesday’s action.
York Ebor Festival – Day 1
1:50 – Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 5 ½ f
A competitive start to the meeting with a 20 runner sprint handicap over an intermediate 5 ½ f. I had eight on my initial shortlist for the race.
The ante post market is headed by two inform sprinters in Jm Jungle and Manila Scouse who come into the race bidding for the hat trick after wins at Goodwood & Chepstow respectively. They both have a 5lb rise in the weights to defy but given their present vein of form could be up to defying it. High draws are never ideal over this trip with Jm Jungle coming out of 19 and Manila Scouse out of 17. Of the pair I just prefer the 3-year-old Jm Jungle but confidence is tempered by his stall position.
Korker was a ½ length runner-up to Regional in a similar race here (5f) at the Dante Meeting in May. He’s only finished runner-up on his last two starts and there is a race like this in the 4-year-old if he breaks on terms from stall 7.
Intrinsic Bond won the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon last August for his previous yard and has looked better than ever on his last two starts for his new trainer winning an Ascot handicap (5f) and finishing runner-up to an improving 3-year-old at the Shergar Cup 11 days ago.
Bergarac won this corresponding race 12 months ago. Three below par runs so far this year mean he’s now 3lb below last year’s winning mark. The reapplied cheekpieces replace the blinkers and if the change headgear has desired effect he could bounce back here.
Makanah isn’t the easiest to win with but he’s a useful sprint handicapper on his day. The 8-year-old was a 1 ¾ length 5th of 22 in last year’s race and can race off 5lb lower this time around. Poor run in the Stewards Cup last time but he does well here. Has each way claims but stall 20 isn’t ideal.
Ventura Express is a consistent sprint handicapper in a lower grade than today’s race. He was strong finishing neck 2nd of 18 here (5f) two starts back and showed he remains in from when a close-up 4th off 11 at Ripon 11 days ago. Today’s intermediate trip could suit, and he can win again off his present mark, albeit this a hotter race than he needs to contest. Yard saddled the winner of this corresponding race in 2017.
Verdict: Makanah & Ventura Express have each way claims. The former doesn’t have the best of draws for me and the latter is up a couple of notches in class. Still, he’s a big enough price to chance although stall 16 may not be ideal. Last year’s winner Bergarac is out of form but could easily bounce back and is handicapped to be competitive. Korker, Intrinsic Bond and Jm Jungle are inform and can go close.
2:25 – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
I thought there was going to be a good bet in this race in the shape of Ballymount Boy at the weekend. The colt had finished a 1 length runner-up to Vandeek, Sunday’s Prix Morny winner, in a Group 2 at Goodwood last time. That form is much stronger now than it looked at the time and although he faces five unexposed rivals he should win if reproducing his Goodwood performance Albeit there won’t be any of the 4/1 that was available prior to final declarations.
All five of Ballymount Boy’s rivals won last time out. Cogitate won on racecourse debut at Newbury last month. He’s trained by Charlie Hills who saddled the winner of the race in 2014 & 2018.
Aidan O’Brien saddles Edwardian who won at Naas last time. He looks one of the Ballydoyle lesser lights but he’s open to further improvement and should appreciate the better ground. Trainer is 0 winners from 11 runners, 1 placed in the race since 2010.
Hot Fuss got off the mark when comfortably seeing off seven rivals at Salisbury (soft)37 days ago. He’s going to be the outsider of the six but is going the right way and might well be a bit of value on the day.
Verdict: Ballymount Boy is the one to beat. Cogitate looks useful for a trainer with a good record in the race and Hot Fuss can go well at big odds.
3:00 – Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) – 1m 4f
This Group 2 contest is normally considered a pointer for next month’s St Leger. Gregory ante post favourite for the final British Classic takes on four rivals in this year’s race.
Gregory made it a perfect 3-3 when winning the Group 2 Queen’s Vase (1m 6f) at Royal Ascot last time. Dropping back in trip and given the lack of pace in the line-up it seems likely jockey Frankie Dettori will likely make the running on the colt like he did at Ascot. Open to further improvement and suited to a sound surface, the favourite is the one they all have to beat.
The Aidan O’Brien trained colt Continuous has just 1lb to find with Gregory on Official Rating’s (OR’s) and has to be respected on his runner-up effort behind King Of Steel at Royal Ascot.
Castle Way has 2lb to find with favourite on OR’s after his win a tactically run Listed race at Newmarket last month. He’s going the right way and hails from a yard that won this in 2018 & 2021. He probably doesn’t have the scope for as much progress as Gregory but should go close.
Trainer James Ferguson saddled last year’s winner and bids to follow up with Canberra Legend. The colt seems to be getting better with racing and was a solid enough 3 ¼ length 3rd of 6 to Desert Hero in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. Not totally discounted if gets a well run race and could prove to be biggest threat to a Gregory win.
Verdict: I was tempted to throw a dart at Canberra Legend at double figure odds but I think Gregory will be tough to beat even if he is dropping back 2f in trip here.
3:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2 ½ f
Paddington beat three rivals to win the Coral Eclipse two starts back and looks set for another 1m 2f Group 1 race with little pace. It’s hard to see any of his three rivals going out to make the pace so it looks like Ryan Moore will be able to dictate things from the front as he did in the Sussex Stakes.
Mostahdaf will be ridden to make use of his turn of foot. The 5-year-old improved to win the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last time and a subsequent 63 day layoff is a plus as he’s 6 from 6 when returning from a 58+ day absence. The drier the ground the better his chance and although Paddington looks special, I wouldn’t be quick to rule him out.
Mostahdaf’s stablemate Nashwa is an interesting addition to the line-up. Held-up in slowly run Nassau Stakes last time there must be a worry that she won’t settle.
The Foxes won the Dante Stakes over C&D in May before failing to stay 1m 4f in the Derby. He goes well at York, but you must think he’ll need both Paddington and Mostahdaf to underperform to win.
Verdict: A tactical race is in the offing and the result will be decided by which jockey gets them right. Ryan Moore looks like he will pace the pace on favourite Paddington and if he gets the fractions right will be tough to beat. Mostahdaf needs good or quicker but on his day, he’s got the best turn of foot in the race and if can reproduce his Royal Ascot performance can get the better of Paddington.
4:10 – Sky Bet Stayers Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
A short head separated Aztec Empire and Solent Gateway when the pair were third & fourth respectively behind Sweet William at Newbury last time. Aztec Empire proved that he was as effective on turf as the all-weather that day and can confirm form with Solent Gateway. Both should go well again, but they are vulnerable to any better treated rivals.
Haliphon has been slowly easing down the weights and shaped like his turn might be near when a ½ length 2nd of 11 at Yarmouth (1m 6f) last month. Won a race here (1m 6f) in the steward’s room last summer and followed up at Chester and is now 3lb below his last winning mark. He stay 2m and merits serious consideration.
Forca Orta twice a winner last year including here over 1m 4f. The 5-year-old was back to something like his best when 2nd of 7 at Hamilton 18 days ago. Yet to race beyond 1m 5f but if he stays, he’s handicapped to close.
Robert Johnson made it 5 from 6 this year when winning a C&D handicap last month and improved again, posting a career best on RPR’s, when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 17 at Goodwood (2m 4 ½ f) 19 days ago. A 4lb rise makes life tougher but in his present form can’t be easily dismissed.
I have a theory that the Irish challengers are better handicapped in staying handicaps on the flat than their British counterparts. That theory will be put to the test here as there are two Irish trained runners in the line-up.
Zanndabad a four time winner on the flat when trained in France. He shaped with some promise on his first three starts over hurdles for new trainer Tony Martin. Not best positioned in a slowly run race when 12th of 18 at the Curragh (1m 6f) 87 days ago. The booking of Ryan Moore takes the eye on the 4-year-olds first run at 2m.
Grappa Nonino broke his maiden tag on the flat at Killarney (2m 1f) in May and was back to winning ways at the Curragh (1m 6f) 10 days ago. The 4-year-old did well to win given he came from much further back than the three that finished behind him. The return to 2m will suit and a 5lb penalty looks workable.
Verdict: I’m expecting big performances from the Irish challengers Zanndabad and Grappa Nonino. I’m not sure Forza Orta will stay so of the home team the best of them could be Haliphon.
4:45 – Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 5f
Pinafore responded well to the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when gaining a comfortable success at Nottingham 8 days ago. That was a second career success by the 3-year-old. A 6lb penalty probably won’t stop her if in the same form as last time in the retained headgear.
Designer won this corresponding race 12 months ago from 5lb lower. The 4-year-old shaped like she was returning to form at the right time when a 3 ¾ length 4th of 12 to Lord Riddiford at Goodwood 22 days ago. I had her in mind for this race after her Goodwood run but she’s been drawn out widest stall 14.
Kimngrace posted a career best when comfortably winning a C&D handicap (good to soft) last October and matched that level of form when winning a Listed race at Lingfield in February. She’s been below form on subsequent starts, but she did hit form at this time last season.
Pillow Talk won a Listed race over C&D last Spring and finished runner-up in a similar race on her seasonal return at the Dante Meeting in May. The 3-year-old was below par on her next two starts but shaped much better when a ¾ length 3rd of 6 at Pontefract last month. Same mark here and respected given her C&D form.
Verdict: The inform Pinafore looks the right favourite. I was expecting Designer to be a confident selection here but stall 14 has put me off especially as most of the pace looks to be in the lower half of the draw. Pillow Talk’s C&D form makes her of serious interest and stall five looks a good one.
5:20 – Sky Bet Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
A tricky 20 runner nursery concludes day one of York’s Ebor Festival. I have decided to rule out anything drawn 12 & higher which means I’m reluctantly passing over recent C&D winner Blue Prince (18), despite Richard Fahey having booked Tom Marquand for the ride and having saddled the winner of this race twice in the past ten years.
Those drawn lower seem favoured over 5f at York and most of the pace seems to be drawn in the first half of the field.
Starlust (8) won at Chelmsford and Newbury and improved again when an excellent 1 ½ length 2nd of 12 to a stablemate on nursery debut at Goodwood 19 days ago. He’s up 3lb for last time but is going the right way. I think York will suit him better than Goodwood and he should go close with Ryan Moore booked.
Dapper Valley (4) was back to form when finishing ¼ length and one place behind Starlust at Goodwood with the front three pulled nicely clear of the rest. He’s up just 2lb and should be bang there once more but his two best performances have come on soft ground.
Red Zone Hero (11) got off the mark at the third attempt when winning an Ayr maiden (soft) last month. He must be highly regarded as he had a Gimcrack entry and even though he’s 1lb out of the handicap, he’s very much respected on nursery debut.
Zabriskie Point (3) won on racecourse debut at Leicester and improved further when a neck 3rd of 9 under a penalty at Salisbury (6f) 13 days ago. That was the colts first start for 72 days and he might just have needed the run last time. On a workable mark for his nursery debut and should get a good tow into the race from stall 3.
Verdict: On a sound surface I think Starlust can conform form with Dapper Valley. Red Zone Hero and Zabriskie Point both look on workable marks on handicap debut and like Starlust seem to be drawn in the right part of the draw.
Betting Advice:
I can see myself having a big swing with plenty of bets over the four days. It’s sure to be rollercoaster ride so let’s hope we can come out of in a strong position. Today I’m concentrating on the handicap races.
York
1:50 – Korker – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral, Intrinsic Bond – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral and Ventura Express – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Coral
4:10 – Grappa Nonino – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365
4:45 – Pillow Talk – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365
5:20 – Zabriskie Point – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral and Red Zone Hero – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral.
For those interested here are the York Ebor Festival micro angle qualifiers.
Cheers
John