Hi all,
Day four of the Qatar Goodwood Festival sees a couple of old favourites head the betting for their respective races.
Highfield Princess bids to return to winning ways in the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes (3:35). Meanwhile Hamish who missed Saturday’s King George will be a strong favourite of the Group 3 Glorious Stakes (4:10).
Nostrum missed Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes which in hindsight now looks a good move. The 3-year-old will be a short-priced favourite of the Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes (2:25). He faces six rivals with Royal Ascot Britannia Handicap Winner Docklands the most dangerous of them.
Another mainly dry day on Friday but rain is due with possibly 14mm hitting the track on Saturday.
I begin today’s preview at Goodwood but there are selection from Galway which can be found at the end of the main piece.
Goodwood
Nostrum made an impressive seasonal return when winning a Listed race at Newmarket last month. I believe he’s a Group 1 horse in the making. However, I wonder if connections will run him on testing ground.
His nearest market rival Docklands has 10lb to find with Nostrum on Official Ratings but he’s well worth his place in the line-up. His performance in winning the Britannia Handicap marked him down as a future Group horse and he’s got winning form on soft ground.
Highfield Princess hasn’t been quite at her best, but the King George Qatar Stakes is the easiest race she’s run in this season. I think as she’s got older, she’s became faster so the return to 5f won’t inconvenience her. Ground versatile, I think she’ll be back to winning ways on Friday afternoon. One with each way claims is Nymphadora. The 4-year-old is proven on soft ground and showed plenty of pace when winning a Listed race at York last time.
The rain has come at the right time for Hamish and even though he’s got to give weight to all sis rivals I think he’ll win the Glorious Stakes. Useful mare Mimikyu has 4lb to find with Hamish on RPR’s and must be respected in the first time cheekpieces. Still on soft ground this is Hamish’s to lose.
3:00 – Coral Golden Mile (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m
The big betting race on the Goodwood card is the Coral Golden Mile (3:00). There are few handicaps in the calendar where the draw has been as important as this mile contest. Looking at the last ten years runners drawn 10+ are 1 winner from 99 runners -92. 13 placed. Compared to 9 winners from 77 runners +5.75, 26 placed for those drawn in a single figure digit draw. It will be interesting to see if low drawn horses continue to dominate on what is likely to be soft ground.
Recent York winner and last year’s runner-up Blue For You has drifted in the ante post betting after he drew stall 11. You can’t rule him out given his current form and remains on the shortlist.
One of my initial fancies Awaal comes out of stall 12. The 4-year-old finished 3rd of 20 in the Royal Hunt Cup and occupied the same spot in the Bunbury Cup (7f) last time. He’s a very useful handicapper and is interesting in the first time cheekpieces and a return to soft ground. Has a big chance if the draw doesn’t prove an inconvenience. I want to keep Awaal on-side but I’m going with lower drawn horses too.
Lattam won the Lincolnshire Handicap (heavy) at the Curragh on his seasonal reappearance and improved again when runner-up to Jimi Hendrix in the Spring Cup at Newbury. He’s maintained his progressive ways when winning at Newcastle 36 days ago. Not sure Goodwood will suit his hold up style but he gets his ground and the 4-year-old hasn’t reached his class ceiling yet.
There are just two 3-year-olds in the line-up. That age group has had a healthy strike rate in the race in the past 15 years being 5 winners from 25 runners 25% +12.5 9 placed 36%.
The 3-year-old I like is Racingbreaks Ryder whoended last season with a win and has returned to action in even better form completing a handicap hat trick at Ascot In May, two of them on soft ground. Far to keen on quick ground when well beaten in the Brittania Handicap at Royal Ascot. A return to an easier surface is a positive and he’s got a potentially handy draw in stall 7. Connor Planas takes off a useful 5lb and I think he’s a got a great chance if back to his best.
Rest of the Goodwood card
I’m not going to be putting up any selections in the three Group races so that leaves the handicaps.
1:50 – Coral Goodwood Handicap (Class 2) – 2m 4 ½ f
Top weight Calling The Wind won this corresponding race in 2021 and last time out won the Northumberland Plate. He’s 4lb higher which makes life difficult, but this race is probably easier than last time, and you couldn’t rule him out going in again.
Temporize, twice a winner for Mark & Charlie Johnson last summer, produced a just about a career best effort on just his second start for Syd Hosie when a head 2nd of 7 at Ascot (soft) 7 days ago. Although he steps up a further 4 ½ f in trip today he looks a stayer. He’s 1lb lower than last week so his handicapped to go close if staying.
Tritonic is a useful dual purpose horse at his best. The 6-year-old who won a handicap here last October (1m 4f) from 3lb lower was back to his best when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 19 in the Ascot Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot last time. He seemed to prove his stamina last time and goes well on an easy surface. Whether he wants to it soft I’m not sure.
Mostly Sunny has form around here over 2m and handled heavy ground when runner-up at Newbury last October. He posted a career best on RPR’s when finishing a ½ length 2nd of 14 in the Northumberland Plate last time. Shapes like a marathon trip could suit and has nice light weight for the conditions.
The Grand Visir might not be the horse he once was, won the Ascot Stakes in 2019, finished a close-up fourth in this corresponding race in 2020 and runner-up in the Chester Cup in 2021. Hasn’t won for over four years but the 9-year-old showed that he was still capable of a big run when runner-up in the Queen Alexandra Stakes (2m 6 ½ f) at Royal Ascot. Poor run at Newbury last time but needs an extreme test of stamina and the visor/tongue tie combination return.
4:45 – Ire-Incentive It Pays To Buy Irish Nursery Handicap – 6f
Starlust put his experience to win at the third attempt at Newbury last month. Nursery debut today and Ralph Beckett has booked Conor Planas to take off 5lb of the top-weights back. On pedigree an easy surface could suit, and I think he’ll go well.
Specific Times was much improved when making all to win on nursery debut at York 20 days ago. Up 9lb but she’s in good form and follow up win could be on the cards.
Loaded Gun got off the mark at the fifth attempt when winning a Chester novice 20 days ago. The ground was testing last time so underfoot conditions should hold no terrors for him. Interesting on nursery debut with Ryan Moore booked.
5:20 – Coral Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 3f
Nader King won a Nottingham maiden on soft on seasonal return and has improved on two starts in handicap company on quicker ground including when a length 2nd of 8 at Salisbury 37 days ago. The son of Camelot is going the right way and can win a handicap. Yard won this in 2016 and he’s the one I like most.
Maso Bastie a winner at Lingfield in December followed up in Nottingham novice under a penalty in May. The gelding didn’t improve when a 3 ¾ lengths 3rd of 7 at Newcastle on handicap debut last time but it was a messy race at Newcastle and a strongly run could suit him better.
Galway
Over at Galway we’re heading into day five and it’s a day for you if you like big field competitive handicaps.
There are five of them with the best of them being the Guinness Galway Tribes Handicap Hurdle (5:00) which is a consolation race for the Galway Hurdle and the Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase (6:00) which is a consolation race for the Plate.
Both those races have €47,200 on offer to the winner which means maximum fields sizes for both contests.
Neither race is the most valuable on the card though. The Guinness Handicap (6:45) is a Premier Handicap, over 1m 4f, and has €64,900 on offer to the winner.
Plenty of rain is expected to hit Galway this evening so the ground could change quickly especially if the arrives earlier than expected.
5:00 – Guinness Galway Tribes Handicap Hurdle – 2m
Sit Down Lucy won this corresponding race last year and is just 2lb higher here. Another big run can be expected from the 9-year-old back at course that suits. Trainer has had a winner here this week and could land another one here.
Buddy One went close when 1 ½ length 3rd of 21 in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and improved again when 2nd of 20 in a valuable handicap hurdle at Aintree. That’s the best form on over but it came over half mile further. Just failed to get into the Galway Hurdle and the trainer thinks the drop back to 2m won’t inconvenience the 6-year-old.
War Correspondent looked set for a big run when stumbling and unseating his rider four out at Kilbeggan 21 days ago. The 4-year-old is probably on a workable mark, and I think he’s capable of being in the mix for a trainer 2-4 in the past 14 days. Rachel Blackmore has been booked for the ride and she’s 5 winners from 24 rides 21% +5.50 when riding for trainer Ray Cody over jumps.
Volantis won a Fairyhouse novice hurdle in February and returned from a four month absence to finish a good 2 length 2nd of 7 on handicap debut at Roscommon in June. Down in trip but there should be more to come from the 5-year-old.
6:00 – Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase – 2m 6 ½ f
A fascinating renewal of the Blazers with a couple of very unexposed chasers taking on more experienced handicappers.
Goodbye Sam
Desertmore House seemed to improve for going over fences when winning a Kilbeggan beginners chase (3m 1f) three weeks ago. He jumped well for a novice last time and should be capable of making his mark in handicap chases this season.
Henry De Bromhead has won this race three times since 2016 and he saddles two here in Percy Warner & Toss Again. The former is ridden by Rachel Blackmore but its Toss Again that I like more. Twice a winner over hurdles he improved for going over fences when winning a beginners chase at Limerick 71 days ago. Looks the type to do better over fences and given his trainers record in the race should go well.
Pakens Rock comes into the race after two wins at Kilbeggan. The 10-year-old is up 5lb for his latest success but can’t be ruled out back at a track where’s he’s won four times in the past. Stamina to prove but if he stays he should go close.
Snugsborough Hall won a point in April on good ground but hasn’t won over regulation fences four over four years. The 12 -year-old showed he’s still capable of running well when a ½ length 2nd of 8 at Wexford 28-days ago. Hasn’t fired on two previous runs here and this looks like a hot race, but he’s not totally dismissed.
6:35 – Guinness Handicap (Premier Handicap) – 1m 4f
Another cracker of a handicap this time on the flat.
Weston was useful when trained in Germany and ran well on just his second start for Gordon Elliott when a 2¾ length 5th of 19 to Ahorsewithnoname in Ascot Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot last. Proved he stayed 2m 4f last time. Drops back significantly in trip here but looks on a competitive mark.
Zoffman made an encouraging a return to action when a ¾ length 2nd of 11 at the Curragh (good to firm) 33 days ago. Best form prior to last time had come on soft ground so if the rain arrives he won’t be inconvenienced. I’m not sure this track is ideal given his running style but I think he’s started the season on a good mark.
Chally Chute won a heavy ground handicap over C&D off a much lower mark last October. He’s improved on both starts this season, posting a career best when winning a Killarney handicap (2m 1f) 17 days ago. Up 8lb and the drop back to 1m 4f on quicker ground may be on the short side for the 5-year-old. That’s said he’s in form and going the right way.
Jackfinbar off for 49 months before finishing a promising 2 lengths 3rd of 9 to Espionage in Listed race at Roscommon last month. That was the 9-year-olds first start for Willie Mullins and provided he doesn’t bounce has to merit serious consideration.
Teed Up runner-up in last season’s November Handicap at Doncaster improved for the step up to 2m 1f when winning the valuable amateur riders handicap here on Monday. He’s now a four time winner at Galway and hasn’t been out of the first two here either on the flat or over hurdles. Has a 7lb penalty to carry and might need the rain ease the ground further to win back down in trip.
Sionnach Eile comfortably beat 17 rivals in last year’s corresponding race. He hasn’t fired on three starts so far this season which means he’s just 5lb higher than winning 12 months ago. Drawn out wider (14) than last year but this has likely been the 6-year-old target and a big run can be expected.
Betting Advice:
After a bad day on Thursday I need to turn things around on what looks a busy day of punting.
Goodwood
1:50 – Mostly Sunny – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Tritonic – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Racingbreaks Ryder – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Awaal – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Ladbrokes
4:45 – Starlust – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Galway
5:00 – Sit Down Lucy – 20/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and War Correspondent – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365
6:00 – Pakens Rock – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365
6:35 – Sionnach Eile – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John