Hi all,
More top class racing at Goodwood and Galway this afternoon.
The Group 1 Nassau Stakes (3:35) is the highlight of eight races at Goodwood. Add in an undercard that includes the Group 2 Richmond Stakes (2:25) and Group 3 Gordon Stakes (3:00) and we have you have the makings of a good card.
The Galway action takes place during the afternoon rather than the evening. It’s a mixed card of flat and jumps action once more. There’s a Listed action on the flat with the Corrib Fillies Stakes (3:55). However, the feature race is the Guinness Galway Hurdle (5:05) which has €159,300 on offer to the winner. I have had a look at the latter race in some detail and I have a couple of selections in the race.
The going changed to soft after the first yesterday and was heavy by the end of the card.
The backers of the winners won’t be complaining but you want to see ground that suits 90% of runners. Otherwise, the whole spectacle is ruined.
The prospects for Thursday are better but what sort of state will the track be in is anyone’s guess.
Thankfully I reined in my bets at Goodwood yesterday. I could easily have doubled them but thankfully I didn’t. In hindsight it was day for watching rather than betting.
I’m going to begin today’s preview with a look at the Goodwood feature race.
Goodwood Festival – Day 3
3:35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
With over £600,000 on offer in guaranteed prize money it’s unfortunate, but not unsurprisingly given the lack of quality fillies around, that race of the day has attracted just six runners. Mind you they do include the big two in the ante post betting in Blue Rose Cen and Nashwa.
Blue Rose Cen has won the French 1,000 Guineas and Prix Diane (French Oaks). In winning the French Oaks she looked arguably the best 3-year-old in training. She’s gets the 3lb weight allowance from her older rivals and that could be decisive. The track is an unknown, but the rain is a big plus. The one to beat.
Nashwa won this race 12 months ago bounced back to form when winning the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket last time. The drop back to 1m last time didn’t inconvenience her and in fact she posted a career best in victory. We know C&D holds no terrors for her, but I would be worried that she might not settle back at 1m 2f.
Al Husn beat Nashwa in a Group 2 at Newcastle last time. The 4-year-old is clearly going the right way, but Nashwa wasn’t at her best that day, and I would be surprised if Al Husn can beat that filly again.
Above The Curve won a Group 1 last season and there was just a short head between her Nashwa when she was third and Nashwa runner-up in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp last October. Won a Group 2 at Saint-Cloud in May. Nashwa was fourth in that race on her seasonal return and the runner-up won the Group 1 Prix Rothschild at Deauville last Sunday.
It would be unwise to judge Nashwa on that Saint-Cloud form but if you look at their Longchamp running there wouldn’t be much between the pair.
Nassau Stakes Verdict:
Blue Rose Cen could be a special filly, but her odds reflect that. Nashwa was back to her very best last time and is a serious rival to the favourite. Above The Curve might get the race run to suit. She made all to win at Saint-Cloud in the spring and could make the pace in a race where there’s no guaranteed pacemaker. The ground should suit and if and it’s a bit of an if, as she big filly, she handles the track I think she’s overpriced at double figures odds.
Rest of the Goodwood card
1:50 – Coral Kincsem Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
Perfuse won Nottingham (heavy) and followed up under a penalty at Doncaster (good to firm). The colt then did best of those ridden close to a strong pace when 5th of 19 in the King George V Handicap (1m 4f) at Royal Ascot and has got a favourites chance but 100/30 is short enough for me in race with plenty of potential improvers.
Garden Route returned from wins surgery to make all to win Windsor novice on his seasonal return at Windsor 38 days ago. Open to further improvement on handicap debut. It was good to firm last time and soft ground Is an unknown.
Alsakib has won his last two starts at Chester and Windsor. He’s another open to improvement on handicap debut. Again, it was good to firm when he won last time but there are soft ground performers on the dam’s side of the pedigree which provides optimism that he will handle it.
Crack Shot won a Nottingham maiden in June and ran just as well in defeat when runner-up at Hamilton 14 days ago. On pedigree the step up to 1m 2f should elicit more improvement from the gelding. On a workable mark on handicap debut. Should go well for an inform yard.
Ralph Beckett has a couple of lively contenders in Baltic Voyage & Promoter. The former gained his first career success when winning at Ripon 12 days ago. Soft ground suited him last time and although he’s up 6lb and in a deeper race must be respected on ground that evidently suits. Like his stablemate, Promotor is also suited by soft ground. He was doing his best work at the finish when a 5 ¾ length 5th of 13 to Torito in handicap at Epsom last time. Either he wasn’t at home on the track or quick ground last time. If it was the going, he’ll get it here.
Silver Sword is more exposed than some of his rivals, but you can’t knock his consistency this season with his form figures being 121. His win at Pontefract last time was a career best and although he’s up 7lb he might not have reached his class ceiling just yet.
Coverdale comes into the race in even better form having won all four starts this season on ground from heavy to good to firm. His latest success at Ripon 24 days ago was a career best and he had more in hand than the official ½ length of margin of victory suggests. Up 5lb but he’s likley capable of better.
Verdict: My initial pick was going to be Coverdale but the change to soft ground means I have to be interested in Baltic Voyage & Promoter.
2:25 – Markel Richmond Stakes (Group 2) – 6f
Unquestionable, a winner of a Curragh maiden on his second start improved again when a short-head 2nd of 9 to Bucanero Fuerte in a Group 2 back at that venue last time. Open to further improvement and the Aidan O’Brien colt is the right favourite.
Jasour improved to win the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket three weeks ago. He looked more of a sprinting type when winning last time and there should be more to come from the colt. Yet race on ground worse than good so soft ground is an unknown.
Vandeek overcame a slow start and greenness to win on racecourse debut in a Nottingham maiden 13 days ago. He looked a useful prospect at Nottingham and handled the good to soft well enough last time and it’s interesting that connections throw the colt into the deep end here.
Sketch made all to win on racecourse debut at Newbury 12 days ago. He’s bred to speedy and like Vandeek its interesting to see connections decide to step up into Group company here.
Verdict: Unquestionable and Jasour are now non-runners so that’s cut the race up. I was going to go with once raced winner Vandeek but I won’t be having a bet.
3:00 – John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 4f
Just the six runners but five of them are separated by just 5lb on RPR’s and it looks an above average renewal. The Aidan O’Brien trained Espionage heads the ante post betting. The colt was making a belated seasonal return when winning a Listed race at Tipperary last month. He looked a bit rusty at Tipperary and although it was only a workmanlike success, he was well on top at the finish. Looked a potential St Leger horse that day and should improve further with that run under his belt.
Canberra Legend looked a useful middle distance prospect when winning a Newmarket Listed race (good to soft) in April. He disappointed on quick ground in the Dante next time but there was more to like about his 2 ¾ length 5th of 16 to Waipiro in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. The step up to 1m 4f should suit him as will easier ground and he shouldn’t be discounted from a yard who had the runner-up in last years race.
Artistic Star won his first two starts before seemingly unsuited by the track when 7th of 14 in the Derby. Better for a return to a more conventual track when a 6th length 3rd of 6 to King of Steel in Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Only had four career starts so there could be more to come.
Chesspiece has steadily progressed on all five career starts winning a York handicap and improving again when a 5 ¼ length 3rd of 14 to Gregory in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase (1m 6f) at Royal Ascot. He returned to winning ways in the Listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton 13 days ago. Got his own way out in front last time but I was impressed with the manner of his win. He’s getting better with racing and ease in the ground should suit.
Verdict: Chesspiece was going to be one of my bets of the day but although ease will suit him I’m unsure he wants heavy and I’m holding off for now.
4:10 – Jaeger-Lecoultre Nursery Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Gray’s Inn a winner of two of her first four starts will be a warm favourite here after her improved 3 ¾ length 4th of 9 in a Sandown Listed race (soft) 7 days ago. The handicapper has put her up 17lb for that performance, but her revised mark hasn’t kicked in so she’s theoretically very well treated off her old mark of 73.
Macanudo has yet to win on four starts but seems to be improving and showed he handled soft ground when a length 2nd of 9 at Chester two starts back. The first time blinkers are reached for on his nursery debut and trainer Richard Hannon has won this race twice since 2017. If the headgear has the desired effect, he could be the biggest danger to the favourite.
Verdict: The well treated Gray’s Inn will be fine on the ground but at the prices I’m going to take a chance on the first time blinkered Macanudo.
4:45 – Buccellati Handicap (Class 3) – 1m
Isle Of Jura is a rapidly improving 3-year-old handicapper who lumped 10-7 to victory at Newmarket 5 days ago. Has a 6lb penalty to carry and is up a couple of notches in class but is 8lb well in. Quick turnaround and different ground are the only concern if you’re going in with the short-priced favourite.
Glenfinnan has progressed with each of his four starts and was a promising 2 length 4th of 8 at Newmarket on his seasonal return three weeks ago. The hood he wore last time has been dispended with and he’s likely capable of better.
Sea Eagle progressed with each juvenile start. He makes a belated seasonal return after a gelding operation. Could do better as a 3-year-old.
Skysail improved form in first-time blinkers when making a winning seasonal reappearance in a C&D handicap. Bounced back from a poor run when 2nd of 11 at Newmarket 20 days ago. Was keen last time so hopefully today’s bigger field will allow him to settle better.
Man Of Eden was beaten 2 lengths by Skysail over C&D in May but gets a 6lb pull in the weights with that one. He’s been running consistently without winning since. The reapplied cheekpieces replace the blinkers and an easy surface and bigger field may suit.
Naval Academy is having its first start since joining Kevin Ryan (same owner). It hard to weight up his French form but his best form there came on soft ground so a big run wouldn’t surprise me.
Alpha Crucis seemed to relish heavy ground when winning at Windsor and finishing a close up second at Epsom in April. He was unsuited by the drop back to 7f at Kempton last time but the return to a mile and testing ground can show that he still races off a competitive mark.
Verdict: The inform Isle Of Jura might not appreciate this sort of ground but he’s well treated and that could see him home. Skysail is a C&D winner on good to soft has to be in the mix. Ex French trained Naval Academy has form on testing ground. Alpha Crucis wasn’t on my shortlist when I first looked at the race but the change in the going has changed my mind.
5:20 – Tatler British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Class 2) – 7f
Those juveniles to have run don’t set a high standard so this could well go to one of the newcomers. Two that appeal on pedigree are Classical Song and True Wisdom.
Classical Song cost 420,000 Euros at the breeze-ups and is related to five winners. Plenty to like on pedigree about the daughter of Lope De Vega and with Ryan Moore booked should go well.
True Wisdom’s yard won this corresponding race in 2018 and the daughter of Le Havre should win races. It will be interesting to see what the pre-race betting makes of her chance.
Verdict: Not a betting race for me but I will be interested to see how tuned up Classical Song is for her debut.
5:55 – World Pool Handicap (Class 3) – 5f
Holkham Bay is interesting on handicap debut dropped back to 5f. He’s improved his RPR’s on all three starts. First time on soft ground, his dam won on the surface, but of more concern would be the yard’s form 29 runners since a winner.
Jm Jungle had been running well this season and gained a well overdue to success when getting up close home at Haydock 26 days ago. Up 5lb for his latest win but trainer John Quinn has an excellent record at the meeting which he can’t be ruled out.
Thunder Moor likely needed the run when 14th of 26 on stable debut in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot. Much better effort last time when a ½ length 3rd of 11 at Yarmouth 7 days ago. It was good to soft last week so he should be ok on the ground and is very much a contender.
Desperate Hero was back to winning ways in the first time cheekpieces at Windsor in June. Looks held by Jm Jungle when 4th to that one Haydock two starts back but he posted a personal best on RPR’s when a head 2nd of 11 (Thunder Moor 3rd) at Yarmouth 7 days ago. Really soft ground would be an unknown, but he’s not easily dismissed given his current form.
Verdict: I had four on my shortlist with Jm Jungle and Desperate Hours topping it. It’s not a race I will be betting on though until I know how the ground is riding.
Galway
5:05 – Guinness Galway Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap) – 2m
It was good to yielding on the jumps track at Galway on Wednesday morning and according to the forecast not much more is expected. A competitive renewal once more and what’s not like about a 20 runner handicap on ground that shouldn’t be too testing.
I can make a good case for ten of the runners and I still may not have mentioned the winner.
In the past 9 seasons two trainers have dominated the race Willie Mullins (4 winners) and Tony Martin (4 winners). The latter relies on Tudor City who won the race in 2019 and came back to win last year’s renewal at the age of ten.
Mullins saddles four in this year’s race with the two I like most being Zarak The Brave & Bialystok. The first name is the 9/2 favourite and posted a career best when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 8 to Lossiemouth in a Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. Not as good behind a stablemate at Auteuil 74 days ago but he could prove to be a well handicapped horse off a mark of 145. Four-year-old’s are 0-19, 4 places in the past 15 years.
Bialystok improved last spring to win a Naas maiden hurdle and followed up on handicap hurdle debut at the Punchestown Festival. He’s raised 9lb for his latest win, but I suspect we haven’t seen the best of the 5-year-old and it would surprise me to finish ahead of his stablemate. Slight concern about his good chance is that runners who haven’t had run in the last 90 days are 0 winners from 42 runners, 5 placed.
Filey Bay was in consistent form in valuable handicap hurdles in the spring finishing runner-up in the Betfair Hurdle at Newmarket and 3rd of 24 in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. He’s had a recent spin on the flat which should have put him spot on fitness wise for this. Owners retained jockey Mark Walsh has seemingly opted for Brazil who also has recent run on the flat and gets the first time cheekpieces and is another to consider.
Filey Bay’s stablemate Merlin Giant should also be respected. The 6-year-old won a C&D maiden here 12 months ago and a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle in December. Won a maiden on the flat at Down Royal 40 days ago and the first time cheekpieces he wore last time are retained here. One for the shortlist.
Party Central was a useful hurdler two seasons back and if back to that level of form looks on a useful mark. Disappointed on return to hurdling Killarney in May but was back to form when winning on the flat at Bellewstown 28 days ago. After that race trainer Gordon Elliott immediately said this was the target.
Jessie Evans was behind Party Central at Bellewstown but that was his first start for 8 months and he’s since gone on to win on the flat at Leopardstown. Fourth in this race in 2021 and a ¾ length 2nd of 20 last year. Now 8lb higher than 12 months ago but in with a chance but should be there or thereabouts once more.
Others to consider in an open race include Lucky Max, a useful handicap hurdler on his day who races in the first time blinkers. The strong travelling Captain Conby’s best form has come over further, but he doesn’t find much at the end of his races and a drop back to a well run 2m could suit the 6-year-old. My Mate Mozzie was well fancied for last year’s race (13/2) but finished only 12th of 20. Two starts since returning from a 7 month lay off and showed his well being when winning a Tramore maiden on the flat 23 days ago. Well supported again for the race once again I suspect the 7-year-old remains fairly treated off a mark of 141.
Verdict: Zarak The Brave could be well treated but he’s too short for me and at the prices I prefer stablemate Bialystock. Filey Bay has a race like this in him, but I like the claims of his stablemate Merlin Giant more. I’m also expecting Party Central to run a big race. I could easily go for three here but in the end I have settled on just two.
Betting Advice:
I’m going to confess that I will be keeping my Goodwood bets to a minimum until I know what the ground is tomorrow. However, here are a few selections.
Goodwood
1:50 – Coverdale – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Promoter – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Above The Curve – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:10 – Macanudo – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:45 – Alpha Crucis – 1pt win – 22/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Naval Academy – 1pt win – 22/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Galway
5:05 – Bialystock – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Bet365 and Merlin Giant – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John