Hi all,
Buckle up for the race of the season the season. All the main protagonists bar Desert Crown line up for this afternoon’s King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (3:40) at Ascot.
Besides the big Group 1 race. The Ascot undercard also features two other Group races and the Moet & Chandon International Stakes (3.00) a competitive 7f handicap with £77,310 on offer to the winner.
ITV are covering four races from Ascot and three from York this afternoon. The highlights of a seven race card at York are the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes (3:35) and the Sky Bet Dash Handicap (2:40).
It was soft at Ascot and good to soft York on Friday morning. The weather forecast for both courses is suggesting a mostly dry Friday with a few isolated showers on Saturday. Depending on the strength of the breeze and given the time of year. I suspect we could be looking at good to soft at Ascot and the easy side of good at York. However, don’t hold me to that prediction.
Betting advice and today’s selections can be found at the end of today’s preview.
Ascot
1:50 – Bateaux London Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 6f
Soprano was too keen when stepping up to 7f when 3rd of 9 at Sandown 2 days ago. It’s hard to see her running again so quickly but if she did, she would have to be respected.
There are plenty among the 11 runners who are unproven on soft ground. One who has form on rain softened ground though is Komat won on soft on racecourse debut. She hasn’t been disgraced on either start since and it was a career best when she finished a 4 ¼ length 7th of 17 in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last time.
2:25 – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m
Ten have been declared but there are questions about ground, form or well being for plenty of them.
We haven’t seen Ameynah since she finished a 3 ¼ length 6th of 13 in last year’s 1,000 Guineas. I think she will be fit enough on her return to action. However, I’m not sure what’s kept her off the course and she’s plenty short enough at around 100/30.
At least we know Cadeau Belle is inform winning both her starts and goes on soft ground. She looked like a nice prospect when winning a Navan Listed race last month. Looks well worth her place in Group company in what looks a very winnable race.
3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
Biggles a comfortablewinner of the Bunbury Cup last time heads the ante post betting. He’s got a 3lb penalty to carry for that success but remains nicely in. He also has C&D form having finished runner-up in the Victoria Cup in May.
Biggles is a worthy favourite but there’s plenty of other contenders.
The rain that fell this week means there’s been money for Baradar. The first time cheekpieces are applied and this his distance, but he does need soft/heavy ground to be seen at his best so drying ground isn’t a plus.
Last year’s Bunbury Cup winner Bless Him finished a short head to Fresh in last year’s race. He can race off the same mark here. Well suited to a strongly run 7f but I would be happier if the ground was good or quicker.
Fresh is 3lb worse off with Bless Him but he’s 2-6, 4 places over C&D and was back to his best when a 2 length 5th of 27 in the Wokingham Handicap here last time. Always to be respected here and is 1lb below his last winning mark,
Vafortino won last year’s Victoria Cup over C&D and finished third in this year’s race. Back to form when a short head 2nd of 8 to Northern Express at York last time. Handicapped up to his best but Kaiya Fraser takes off a handy 5lb. A bit of ease in the ground suits and he should go well.
Popmaster won twice in 2021 but failed to get his head in front last season. Took advantage of some leniency from the handicapper to return to winning ways here (6f) two starts back. Down the field 24 hours later in the Bunbury Cup but that performance can be excused. Probably better over 6f but stays 7f and his course form means he can’t be discounted.
Escobar has plenty of form over the straight course including winning the Challenge Cup (Handicap) over C&D last October (good to soft). Fairly low key efforts this season but the 9-year-old can race off his last winning mark and with Dettori booked the 9-year-old could be primed for a big run.
Safe Voyage is another with plenty of form here on the straight course. It’s two years since the 10-year-old last won but he’s not been disgraced on his last two starts finishing third in Thirsk Hunt Cup and 5th of 22 in the Victoria Cup over C&D last time. Ease in the ground suits and he should run well.
Tacarib Bay improved to win a Haydock handicap (soft) over the distance last Summer and finished a 3 length 3rd of 20 in the Balmoral Handicap (1m) here last October. Not at his best on last two starts on turf in April but he’s been gelded since and a 102 day layoff might not be a negative as he’s gone well fresh in the past. Back down to his last winning mark and the going is no negative.
Verdict: In a race where I may not have even mentioned the winner, Biggles is a worthy favourite and if you fancy him, I wouldn’t put you off. The newly gelded Tacarib Bay can go well and is high only shortlist. If the ground continues to dry out then last year’s runner-up Bless Him
3:40 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 4f
A fascinating race not just because of the quality of the line-up but also the fact that tactics could play a key role in the race.
Dual Derby winner and ante post favourite Auguste Rodin needs a strong pace to be seen at his best, but trainer Aidan O’Brien runs Bolshoi Ballet and Point Lonsdale who seem likely to make this a good stamina test. As the front runners drop away that could create traffic problems for those racing behind them towards the rail.
The drying ground is a plus for Emily Upjohn. She was disappointed in last year’s race but didn’t settle that day and has taken her form to a new level this season, winning the Coronation Cup on return and finishing runner-up to Paddington in the Coral Eclipse last time.
The easing of the ground has been a positive for Hukum who was well supported earlier in the week. This is the 6-year-old’s first run since he made an impressive seasonal return to beat Desert Crown in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard at Sandown (1m 2f) in May. I think he’s the one to beat on soft or good to soft ground.
King Of Steel has made massive improvement from two to three as he showed when finishing runner-up to Auguste Rodin in the Derby and winning the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Given his lightly raced profile there should be more to come from him.
Pyledriver produced a career best when winning last year’s race and returned to action with a C&D success in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. This year’s renewal looks hotter than 12 months ago, but he always seems to surprise me and can’t be discounted.
Drying ground will suit Westover who seems at his best on a sound surface and strongly run 1m 4f is a big plus.
Luxembourg has become a bit of a forgotten horse, but he put up on of the performance of last season when winning the Irish Champion Stakes. Bounced back to winning ways in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup two starts back before finishing runner-up to Mostahdaf in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (1m 2f) at the Royal Meeting. Capable of brilliant performances at his best and 1m 4f could really suit the 4-year-old. He would be the value play but stall 1 over C&D is not a positive.
When it looked like soft ground, I thought Hamish was well overpriced at 100/1 earlier in the week. Granted he’s probably better over 1m 6f but has only 7lb to find on official ratings with Pyledriver and I still think he can get into the frame if soft remains in the going description.
Verdict: It’s not often we get as competitive a Group 1 contest as this one. So, let’s enjoy it. I think Auguste Rodin will prove he’s the best of the 3-year-old’s. His stablemate Luxembourg has become a bit of a forgotten horse and if he wasn’t drawn in stall 1, I would be looking to have a few pounds on him. I usually underestimate Pyledriverand I might regret doing so once more. The drying ground is a positive for Emily Upjohn and even more so Westover. Hukum has plenty in his favour and provided he doesn’t find trouble in the run is the most likely winner.
York
2:05 – Sky Bet “Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe” Handicap – 5f
A novelty race but there’s value to be found so it’s not a race to ignore. Trainer Paul Midgley certainly likes the race as he saddled three of the last five winners. He’s got 6 of the 19 declared runners in this year’s renewal. Of his runners the one I like most is Strong Johnson. He’s on a losing run that goes back two years, but he’s become a well handicapped horse. The 7-year-old hasn’t run too badly on his last two starts and will pop up sometime this season when all the cards fall right.
Paul Townend comes over to ride Ey Up It’s Maggie and there’s been early money for the mare. She’s got plenty of form here, but the drying ground might not be what she wants.
David O’Meara saddled the 2021 winner and he’s got a strong contender in Speedacus. The 4-year-old was back to winning ways on soft ground at Doncaster last time. A 4lb rise isn’t insurmountable albeit consistency hasn’t been one of his strengths in the past. Ground versatile and Sean Bowen won on the flat recently is a good jockey booking.
2:40 – Sky Bet Dash Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
Summerghand is gradually coming back to form and was at his best in the second half of last season. He’s now 5lb lower than winning last year’s Ayr Gold Cup so must be respected but better ground is probably what he needs.
I quite liked the claims of Hyperfocus when it looked like the ground would be soft but drying ground is a negative.
Magical Spirit wasn’t at his best on the all-weather last time but prior to that had finished a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 21 to stablemate Bielsa over C&D in May. A bit of juice in the ground suits the 7-year-old and he can go well.
Lethal Levi probably needs a sound surface, and he posted a career best when a neck 2nd of 21 to Bielsa over C&D (good) in May. You can draw a line through his Wokingham Handicap performance when he was hampered 2f out. Back to form when a 1 ½ length 3rd of 9 at Newcastle last time. Yard among the winners and if he gets good ground can win this valuable prize.
Previous C&D winner Lucky Man was down the field on his seasonal return in the C&D handicap that Bielsa won in May but left that form behind when a 3 ¾ length 3rd of 6 to Popmaster at Ascot 15 days ago. Fourth in last season’s Ayr Gold Cup he’s just 2lb above his last winning mark and is another with solid claims.
3:15 – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 2 ½ f
Just the five runners so it’s a disappointing turnout for a valuable prize. My Prospero progressive as a 3-year-old he’s the class horse of the race based on last year’s season’s form. The 4-year-od made a promising return in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes (1m) but ran poorly in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. If back to his best he’s the one to beat.
Alflaila ended last season on the up winning his last three starts including Group 3’s here and Newmarket both over 1m 1f. More than capable of a big run on his belated seasonal reappearance here, but the lack of pace would be a worry.
Mashoor has taken his form to a new level this season in winning his last three starts. He got a great front running ride to win a Group 3 at the Curragh 28 days ago. Seems likely to get another contested lead here and his rivals can’t let him get away like they did last time. It should be harder to dominate this better quality field but it’s too dangerous to rule him out.
Betting Advice:
Ascot
1:50 – Komet – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (I’m expecting a Big Rule 4 if as expected Soprano doesn’t run)
3:00 – Tacarib Bay – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Vafortino – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Bless Him – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:40 – Hukum – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
York
2:05 – Speedacus – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral and Strong Johnson – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes
2:40 – Lethal Levi – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Lucky Man – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Paddy Power
3:15 – Mashoor – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Cheers
John