Hi all,
It’s ‘Mad Saturday’. The afternoon in the flat racing calendar when it’s a case wall to wall racing. The action comes thick and fast making it difficult to keep a handle on what’s happening.
Punters either love it or hate it. For what’s it worth I have come around to embrace the day rather than knock it. Mind you it doesn’t make writing Saturday’s column easy. What do you put in and what do you leave out. Especially as I am doing a full Saturday preview exclusively for Victor Value subscribers.
You can enjoy a bumper ten race programme of racing on ITV this afternoon with the broadcaster covering racing from three courses: Newmarket, Ascot, and York.
The Newmarket feature race and the race of the day is the Group 1 July Cup (4:35). The undercard is decent and includes the Group 2 Superlative Stakes (3.25) and Bunbury Cup (4.00).
At Ascot the feature race is the Group 2 Summer Mile (2.20).
The highlights of a seven race card at York are the Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (3.45) and one of my favourite races of the season the John Smith’s Cup (3:10).
Today’s preview is a long one as I’m looking at all seven Newmarket races and the ITV races from York and Ascot.
Please note: I have only done verdicts for the ten races on ITV.
Newmarket July Festival – Day 3
The first two races on the Newmarket card are not live ITV so I will keep my previews for those races short.
1:40 – Rossdales British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Class 3) – 7f
Content comes into the race with just about the best form. The Aidan O’Brien trained filly made a promising racecourse debut at Leopardstown before finding herself with no cover with the group that ran near side in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. She was sent off just 5/1 that day before finishing 13th of 16.
Race The Wind was an encouraging 4th of 6 over C&D on her racecourse debut 14 days ago and should do better for the Charlie Appleby yard.
Bernese, trained by Ralph Beckett who won this in 2018 is a well bred filly who should win races and looks the best of the newcomers.
2:15 – Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Desert Voice won a Yarmouth maiden on her second start and followed up on handicap debut. A 4lb rise doesn’t look harsh and Adam Farragher takes off a handy 3lb. She’s open to further improvement but rain softened ground would be an unknown.
In These Shoes looks exposed but she has won good to soft ground so can’t be discounted if the ground has eased.
Chasseral shaped well enough on the step up to an extended 7f when a 2 length 5th of 10 at Chester 15 days ago. There’s a race in her off her present mark but maybe not on an easier surface.
Eximious was on the wrong side of the track when 15th of 29 in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. You can put a line through that run but ease in the ground would be a concern.
Candle Of Hope was a good 6 ¼ length 5th of 29 in Sandringham Handicap last time. The drop back to 7f looks a good move and Ryan Moore has been booked but who knows how she will take to ground softer than good.
2:50 – bet365 Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Sniper’s Eye qualified for a handicap mark after finishing a 2 ¾ length 2nd of 6 to Imperial Emperor over C&D last time. The winner didn’t do much for the form in a Listed race on Thursday, but he looks on a workable mark for his handicap debut.
Tafreej posted a career best on RPR’s when beating three rivals in a Yarmouth handicap 15 days ago. Up 6lb for that success but Adam Farragher takes off 3lb. Rain shouldn’t be too much of an issue for the 3-year-old and he’s high on the shortlist.
Quantum Impact looked an improver when winning a York handicap two starts back and ran better than his 8 ¾ length 13th of 29 to Docklands in Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. Seems ground versatile and remains on a winnable mark.
Royal Dubai ran a career best when a ¾ length 2nd of 10 on handicap debut at Chester (7 ½ f) 28 days ago. He’s been nudged up 2lb but remains capable of better and will be suited by the return to a mile.
Verdict: Tafreej has solid claims but at the prices I prefer Quantum Impact and Royal Dubai.
3:25 – bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
City Of Troy impressed when winning on racecourse debut at the Curragh 14 days ago. He’s already been backed by some shrewd judges for next year’s Derby given his middle distance pedigree. As for today’s race he will be very smart and need to have plenty of pace to win this which of course he might well do.
Great Truth ran out a comfortable winner of a Leicester novice on his racecourse debut 16 days ago. The son of Dubawi is open to any amount of improvement and should go close.
Iberian was very impressive when winning on racecourse debut at Newbury last month. The son of Lope De Vega looked a smart prospect that day and given connections are happy to throw him straight into a Group 2 he must be highly regarded. The ground was quick at Newbury but his sire’s progeny handle ease in the ground and he could surprise the big two.
Verdict: City Of Troy will be a serious Derby contender if he has the speed to win this. Great Truth and Iberian bith won on racecourse debut and the latter could be the value play in the race.
4:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
There’s a maximum field of 20 for this competitive handicap.
Awaal, runner-up in the Lincoln Handicap on his seasonal return, finished a 4 length 3rd of 30 in the Royal Hunt Cup last time. It was good to firm at Royal Ascot but I think he’s a better horse with more ease in the ground and if he gets his underfoot conditions. A mile may be his optimum trip but provided he gets a good pace to chase and ease in the ground he’s a big player.
Probe disappointing in the Wokingham Handicap will appreciate any rain and a return to 7f could suit the 5-year-old.
Bless Him came from the rear to win this race 12 months ago, from 2lb lower. He was a 4 ½ length 5th of 30 in the Royal Hunt Cup last time. Definite claims of back to back wins in the race although he will want quick ground to do so.
Spangled Mac 4th of 29 in the Buckingham Palace Handicap (7f) at Royal Ascot ran arguably just as well when a 2 ½ length 8th of 27 in Wokingham Handicap (6f) two days later. Off the same mark here he’s one to be interested in for a race like this although his best form has come on quick ground.
Biggles did best of those drawn low when a 4 ¾ length 9th of 29 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f) at Royal Ascot. His best efforts prior to that had come with some ease in the ground. Lightly raced for a 6-year-old he can land a decent handicap pot over 7f.
Biggles’ stablemate Star of Orion was below par in this race 12 months ago. However, he’s a previous C&D winner, has run well on both starts this season and on a going day would be there or thereabouts.
Verdict: Any ease in the ground will suit Awaal and Biggles.
4:35 – Pertemps Network July Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 6f
Shaquille is a short-priced favourite to follow up his Commonwealth Cup success. It was quick ground at Royal Ascot, but the 3-year-old did win on soft on the Rowley Course in May so underfoot conditions shouldn’t phase him. He has solid claims of another Group 1 success but is plenty short enough given he can play up at the start.
Little Big Bear was a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 13 to Shaquille in the Commonwealth Cup. He was beaten fair and square at Royal Ascot and has had an interrupted preparation for this. Slightly slower ground could suit him better than the quick ground at Ascot.
Azure Blue has looked a much improved sprinter this season winning a Listed race at Newmarket in May and following up in the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes at York last time. Missed Royal Ascot and good or an easy surface suit’s the 4-year-old well. I think she’s a Group 1 sprinter and with some juice in the ground can show she is.
Kinross will be suited by any rain that falls. He shaped like the run was needed when a 5 length 7th of 16 to Khaadem in Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot on his seasonal return. A big run looks likely, but he does likely need easy ground to win.
Verdict: I’m loath to desert Shaquille but the ease in the going means I’m favouring Azure Blue and Kinross. It’s the former who gets the vote. I think she’s a Group 1 sprinter and hopefully she’ll prove it this afternoon.
5:10 – TrustATrader For Tradespeople You Can Trust Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 4f
Hidden Story got off the mark at the third attempt when winning a Newcastle novice (1m 2f) 24 days ago. Strong at the finish he should be suited by the step up to 1m 4f on handicap debut and has appealing claims.
Crystal Mariner won a Newcastle maiden (1m 2f) in May and was 2 length 3rd of 9 to Burglar at Redcar last time. Looks capable of more improvement for the step up to 1m 4f on handicap debut. Has to be high on the shortlist.
Davideo looked progressive when winning a 1m 2f maiden on Rowley course in May. Well fancied but forced to strong a gallop when well beaten in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. If you’re happy to overlook his latest run he would have good claims here.
Flying Frontier bids for the hat trick after wins at Carlisle and Redcar. He still looked a bit green last time and has the scope for further improvement on handicap debut. There’s a good chance he will be suited by the step up to 1m 4f.
York
The rain arrived in York on Friday which is annoying and more is forecast for the area on Saturday.
2:00 – John Smith’s Racing Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Wild Lion seemed to improve for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when winning a 7f handicap here (good to firm) last month. He got 4lb rise in the weights for that success but a 5lb apprentice has been booked which negates the weight rise. He’s won over mile, so today’s trip won’t hold any terrors for him. Lightly raced for a 5-year-old he must have a good chance of following up if handling what could be easier ground here.
Blue For You gained a well-deserved success after several good efforts last season when winning a valuable C&D handicap at the Ebor Festival last August. Plenty of promise to be gleaned from his seasonal reappearance 5th of 16 over C&D on his seasonal return. He was below par in the Royal Hunt Cup last time but a return to going around a bend is a positive and he’s a big player here.
Verdict: I’m not sure either Wild Lion or Blue For You prefer soft ground but the latter did win on soft ground when trained by Dermot Weld.
2:35 – John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
Silky Wilkie transferred his excellent all-weather from to turf when running away with the Scottish Sprint Cup (handicap) at Musselburgh in April. Not his best in two Group 3’s on his next two starts but was back to his very best back in handicap company when short head 2nd of 20 in the “Dash” at Epsom last month.
Regional a useful sprint handicapper last season has taken his form to a new level on two starts this season winning a handicap over C&D on his return and the following up in a Listed contest at Haydock last month. Has to give 3lb to his rivals due to his Listed success but he’s well suited to a flat 5f and can go close provided the ground hasn’t softened too much.
Queen Me’s best juvenile effort came when finishing a neck 2nd of 13 in last year’s Group 2 Lowther Stakes (6f) here last August. Likely didn’t stay the mile when 9th of 20 in the 1,000 Guineas on seasonal reappearance. Back to form when a 3 length 6th of 13 to Shaquille in Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot (6f) 22 days ago. Looks up to winning a Listed/Group3 and is interesting dropped back to 5f for the first time.
Kerdos twice a winner as a juvenile last season. He showed he’d trained on from two to three when finishing a third at Chester two starts back and improved again when neck 2nd of 26 in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. Last time was only his second run over 5f and the lightly raced 3-year-old and looks well worth his place in pattern company.
Chipstead an improving sprinter last season looked better than ever when winning a C&D handicap in May. Probably worth overlooking his poor effort in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot as he’s 0-14 when racing beyond an extended 5f. His form figures at 5f/5 ½ f are 11111101. Not of this on Official Ratings.
Verdict: Regional is the most likely winner if the ground was good or quicker but likelihood of rain softened ground means I’m leaning towards Kerdos and Chipstead.
3:10 – John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (1m 2 ½ f)
One of my favourite handicap races in the calendar. I’m not sure why either as I have had one winner in the past twenty years. Most of my fancies want a sound surface so it’s going to be a case of being on weather watch.
Long Tradition returned from a 20 month absence to comfortably win a Chelmsford comfortably handicap 23 days ago. Looks well in under his 5lb penalty if as a good back on turf.
Sea The Casper won three times as a 3-year-old and posted a career best on RPR’s when an easy winner of a Lingfield handicap (1m 2f) last month. Another who looks well in under a 5lb penalty. Unraced on ground worse than good on turf but has to be high on the shortlist.
Sonny Liston useful when trained by Charlie Hills finishing third in a Group 3 (1m) at Goodwood last July. Now with Ralph Beckett he seemed to take to the first time blinkers when doing best of those who raced near side when a 2 length 2nd of 30 to stablemate Jimi Hendrix in Royal Hunt Cup last time. Stays 1m 2f and capable of going close from the same mark as at Royal Ascot.
Millebosc finished a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 19 in Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) as a 3-year-old. Switched to William Haggas last year and finished a promising 2 ½ length 5th of 10 at Lingfield on stable debut last November. There was plenty of encouragement to be taken from that performance and he’s been gelded since that run. Stall 20 isn’t ideal, but he’s got to be respected for a trainer who has won this twice since 2013.
Majestic won the Cambridgeshire Handicap last season. He’s run well on his last three starts including when a 1 length 4th of 13 over C&D in May, off today’s mark. Suited to a strongly run race and should go well once more provided the ground doesn’t ease too much.
Spirit Dancer finished a neck and one place in front of Majestic on his seasonal return in that C&D handicap in May. That took his C&D form figures to 544123. Beaten a length into fourth in last year’s race and he won’t be inconvenienced by any ease in the ground although he was fine on good to firm 12 months ago. This has likely been the 6-year-old’s target but stall 21 could have been better. Horses drawn 20+ are 1 winner from 41 -34, 6 placed in the race since 2008.
Verdict: Sea The Casper and Sonny Liston have strong claims and despite easy ground being an unknown for Sea The Casper I want to keep him onside. Millebosc and Spirit Dancer haven’t been favoured by the draw but won’t be inconvenienced by the rain that has fallen.
3:45 – John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 6f
The rain could well have arrived just in time for Hamish. He’s 2-2 at York and won the Group 3 Ormonde at Chester on his seasonal return. Even under 3lb penalty the 7-year-old would be too good for his five rivals.
Verdict: I can’t look beyond Hamish.
Ascot
All three of today’s feature tracks host competitive big field handicaps and Ascot’s opens the card. The ground has eased to soft at Ascot.
1:45 – Ascot/1711 Learning To Work Bake-Off Competition Heritage Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
Nineteen are set to go to post for what’s as competitive as a race as you’ll find today. Just like at Newmarket and York, rain or maybe the lack of it will have an impact on today’s races at Ascot.
The first three home in last year’s race Mountain Peak, Bond Chairman and Zarzyni renew rivalry.
Mountain Peak hasn’t been close to his best since winning this race 12 months ago. That means the 8-year-old is now 8lb lower than last year. It was quick ground 12 months ago and that does seem his favoured underfoot conditions.
Bond Chairman was only beaten a nose in last year’s race and come into the race 3lb higher this time around. Hasn’t had too many starts since and comes into the race in good heart after winning at Doncaster on his seasonal return 27 days ago. Worse off with winner but in better form and should go well on a sound surface.
Zarzyni finished a 1 ½ length third 12 months ago and ran a cracker on ground that might have been a shade quicker than he liked. He’s 10lb lower now and 5lb below his last winning mark which came on good to soft at Musselburgh. The 6-year-old produced his best effort for almost year when finishing a 1 length 4th of 20 in the Epsom Dash last time. He was doing his best work at the finish at Epsom and a stiffer 5f suits him well.
King’s Lynn who won the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock last Springhas plenty of form at the track and was back to form when a length 2nd of 6 at Chester in May. Only a 3 ¼ length 9th of 27 in the Wokingham Handicap last time but he did race on the far side that day. Better expected and firmly in the mix.
Call Me Ginger won three times in a productive 2022 one of those successes came in C&D handicap last July and another was gained in the stewards’ room (Portland Handicap). Not at his best on four starts this season but his hold up style means he does need a strong pace to chase. Mark is dropping though and will come good before too long.
Vintage Clarets was back to winning ways at Chester two starts back and the followed up in the valuable Gosforth Park Cup Handicap at Newcastle 15 days ago. Up 6lb but Connor Planas takes off a handy 5lb. Given his present vein of form another big run looks to be forthcoming.
Harry Brown did best of those to race drawn far side when a 6 ½ length 9th of 26 in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot. He shaped like he can win a sprint handicap off his present mark on turf but is 4lb out of the weights here.
Whenthedealinsdone won a C&D handicap last September from 2lb lower. However, he hasn’t been the most consistent of horses so far this season with two good and two below par runs on four starts. The first time blinkers replace the cheekpieces today and the 5-year-old did win in the latter first time two years ago. Claims if taking to the new headgear.
Hierarchy seemed to take to the first time blinkers when a 8 ½ length 19th of 27 in Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. A useful enough juvenile for his previous yard. He’s down to a handy mark and the drop back to a strongly run 5f could suit. Could outrun big odds.
Verdict: The rain has arrived which means I’m siding with Zarzyni and King’s Lynn.
2:20 – Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) – 1m
Master of the Seas runner up in the 2021 2,000 Guineas was running as well as ever in Meydan in the winter prior to a below par effort in the Group 1 Dubai Mile in March. Has been given a 112 day break. If returning at anything like his best will be tough to beat here.
Aldaary, a progressive three year-old on soft ground, won a Haydock Listed race on his sole start last season. The 5-year-old looked laboured on his first start for 14 months when a 3 ½ length 4th of 6 in a group 3 at Newmarket 14 days ago. It was good to firm last time and if the rain arrives to ease the ground a better run could be forthcoming.
Mighty Ulysses had looked progressive prior to a disappointing 5th of 7 in a Group 3 at York on his final start last year. Might be capable of better as a 4-year-old but easy ground would ask another question of him.
Angel Bleu won two Group 1’s on soft ground as a 2-year-old but failed to add any further successes during a short campaign last season. Back to winning ways in a Listed race (7f) at Haydock two starts back and wasn’t disgraced when 5 lengths 7th of 12 in Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. Not out of this but probably needs an easy surface and one or two of his rivals to underperform to win.
Verdict: The return to soft ground will suit Aldaary more than Master Of The Seas.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
2:50 – Quantum Impact – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 and Royal Dubai – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes.
3:25 – Iberian – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:00 – Biggles – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Awaal – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
York
2:00 – Blue For You – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:35 – Kerdos – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Chipstead – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:10 – Sea The Casper – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Millebosc – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Ascot
1:45 – Zarzyni – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and King’s Lynn – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John