Hi all,
It’s Day 2 of Newmarket’s July Festival. In today’s preview I’ve had a look at all seven races on the Newmarket card and two races from York. Friday’s selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
The feature race at Newmarket is the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes (3:35). First established in 1911 the Falmouth Stakes is considered one of the premier races over a mile for fillies and mares in the flat racing calendar. Snow Lantern, Alpha Centauri and Alice Springs are just three examples of recent winners of the race.
This year’s race has attracted nine runners, but it looks an above average renewal of the race on paper.
The other highlight on a seven race card is the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (2:25). Just five juvenile fillies have been declared for this Group 2 contest. Fortunately, they do include two smart fillies in Star Of Mystery and Soprano.
Besides four races from Newmarket ITV are also covering two races from York this afternoon. One of them is the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes (2.40) which is the feature race of a seven race card on the Knavesmire.
Newmarket July Festival – Day 2
After a quiet start to the meeting for yours truly betting wise. You can expect more action on Friday.
1:50 – Horse Challenge At bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 2f
A competitive thirteen runner Heritage Handicap gets the day’s action underway.
Tagabawa a winner on Kempton on his seasonal return, finished a 6 length 6th of 19 to Desert Hero in King George V Handicap (1m 4f) at Royal Ascot on turf debut last time. He was up with a strong pace that day and remains capable of more improvement. Yard is also in better form now and he’s got solid claims. William Buick seems to have chosen him over stablemate Local Dynasty. Local Dynasty, third in the Dee Stakes on his seasonal return, was a never nearer 3 ½ lengths 3rd of 15 in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. He should go well here and gives trainer Charlie Appleby, who saddled last year’s winner, a strong hand in this year’s race.
Burglar finished 3 places and 3 ½ lengths behind Tagabawa in the King George Handicap last time> He was to keen that day and didn’t stay the 1m 4f. The drop back in trip should and remains capable of better.
Dayzee, a winner when trained in Ireland, has improved with each of her three starts since joining her present yard. The filly progressed again for the step up to 1m 2f on turf debut at Salisbury last month. Up 6lb and in a deeper race but she’s going the right way and there was plenty to like about her attitude when she was challenged 1f out last time.
Mighty River is up a couple of notches class and 4lb higher than when winning a C&D handicap 21 days ago. This is tougher but he won nicely last time, and he’s got a decent chance.
Seendid made all to win C&D novice three weeks ago. Open to further improvement on handicap debut and opening mark of 85 looks fair.
Verdict: Seendid is interesting on handicap debut. The drop back to 1m 2f looks a good one for Burglar who didn’t stay 1m 4f at Royal Ascot last time but is capable of better. Given the excellent form of the Charlie Appleby yard you must respect his pair Tagabawa and Local Dynasty.
2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored By bet365) (Group 2) – 6f
Just four juvenile fillies have been declared for this Group 2 contest. Soprano is now a non-runner which means that this race now looks a one horse race.
Star Of Mystery produced a good turn of foot to win a Listed race over C&D 13 days ago. Unbeaten on her last two starts, the daughter of Kodiac is on the upgrade and is the one to beat.
Verdict: Star Of Mystery wins.
3:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
Live Your Dream has returned from a 20 month absence in good form. Finishing runner-up at Haydock and then a 2 length 3rd of 18 in Duke of Edinburgh Handicap (1m 4f) at Royal Ascot last time. The return to 1m 6f and he’s likely to be better positioned than most in what might not be the strongest run race. Up 2lb from Royal Ascot but has a favourites chance.
Aimeric was a 3 ¾ lengths 8th of 18 in Duke of Edinburgh Handicap. Gets a 2lb pull with Live The Dream and given he’s only had eight career starts he could be capable of bit better.
Ravens Ark has finished runner-up on both this season’s starts. Not handicapped out of this but he’s a tricky horse to win with and sharper tracks may suit the 6-year-old better.
A head separated Kihavah and Prydwen when the pair first and second in an Ayr handicap (1m 5f) 20 days ago. The runner-up is now 1lb better off and that was his first start beyond 1m 4f and looks to be improving.
Verdict: Live Your Dream is the right favourite but I think Prydwen is improving and offers a bit more value.
3:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
The field size for this year’s renewal has held up well with nine fillies & mares set to meet the starter and the race looks well up to standard.
Via Sistina and Nashwa both drop back to mile. The drop back in trip shouldn’t inconvenience likely favourite Via Sistina given the pace she showed when winning the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes (1m 2f) at the Curragh last time.
I’m not sure about Nashwa back over a mile. A double Group 1 winner over 1m 2f as a 3-year-old. She’s disappointed on both starts so far this season. Stablemate Coppice was back to winning ways in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot last time. She’s going the right way and fully expect her to win a Group race on quick ground, but this does look a deep renewal.
Last year Prosperous Voyage caused a bit of a shock when beating Inspiral in last year’s race. Quick ground suits her but I don’t think she can defend her crown. Stablemate Remarquee looks to have stronger claims. The 3-year-old who found the 1,000 Guineas to hot on just her third career start. Resumed her progression when a length 2nd of 6 to Tahiyra in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last time.
Verdict: Any ease in the ground will suit Via Sistina but on quicker ground the favourite is vulnerable dropped back to a mile. Remarquee has even bigger performance in her, and Coppice is going the right way and capable of more improvement. At the prices it’s the latter pair of fillies that appeal but Coppice probably wouldn’t want soft ground so I’m going with Remarquee.
4:10 – Weatherbys British EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 3) – 7f
Not a betting race for me but there are several well-bred juveniles making their racecourse debut.
Emperor’s Star trained by Charlie Appleby, who has won this race three times since 2017, is a son of Sea The Stars with a pedigree to do well over middle distances as a 3-year-old.
Arabic Legend is another well bred colt. A son of Dubawi, out of Grade 1 winning mare, he’s another who should improve with racing and trainer Andrew Balding saddled the winner of this corresponding race in 2020.
Aidan O’Brien brings over Capulet. The son of Justify is another with a solid middle distance pedigree and he would have to be respected if fully tuned up for his first career start.
Verdict: A race with the future in mind. For those going for the placepot then it might pay to keep Emperor’s Star and Arabic Legend onside.
4:45 – Boodles Handicap (Class 3) – 7f
Waiting All Night was back to form when a ½ length 3rd of 9 at Haydock 7 days ago. A well run race suited him last time and he should get the same pace set up here. He remains 0-10 on turf though and there look to be other options.
Lyndon B seems to be working his way back to winning form. A much better effort than on his seasonal return when 2 ½ length 5th of 10 at Newbury last month. Didn’t get the best of runs 2f out last time and is another suited to a strong gallop. Capable of a big run with Jamie Spencer booked.
Persuasion is on a losing run that goes back to May 2021 but has run well on his last four starts. Including when a 1 ¼ length 4th of 10 at Newbury last month (Lyndon B 5th). He’s down to a winnable mark but does need all the cards to fall right, which they didn’t last time, to win.
Final Watch is a previous C&D winner was back to form when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of6 over C&D 15 days ago. A hold up performer, the 5-year-old didn’t get the race run to suit last time but should do today. On his last winning mark and has good claims.
Verdict: Lyndon B and Persuasion will need some luck in the run and of the pair the former appeals most. Final Watch goes well over C&D and shouldn’t be far away once more.
5:20 – cavani.co.uk The Sartorial Sprint Handicap (Class 3) – 5f
Swayze a winner at Haydock three starts back from 4lb lower hasn’t been at that level of form on two starts since but a return to his best form would see him go close here.
Conquistador got off the mark at the fifth attempt when winning at Wolverhampton last December and followed up 12 weeks later at Lingfield. Proved his effectiveness for the grass when a 3 ¾ length 3rd of 26 in Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot last time and the 3-year-old should be in the mix again.
Russet Gold was well backed on his return from an 8 month layoff and a gelding operation in the 3-year-old ‘Dash’ at Epsom but was badly hampered after a furlong and had no chance after. Showed he was well treated when winning at Redcar 20 days ago. He’s just had six career starts so could defy a 5lb rise in the weights.
Tatterstall won the 3-year-old ‘Dash’ but was drawn on the unfavoured far side when well beaten in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap last time. Should be seen in a better light here but is 7lb higher than when winning at Epsom.
Verdict: I think the 3-year-olds are the ones to concentrate on here. Tatterstall is better than he was able to show at Royal Ascot. Russet Gold looks capable of better as does Conquistador.
York
There could be up to 10mm of rain in York on Friday so it might be worth seeing if that level of rain does arrive before finalizing your bets. That’s a luxury not available to me as far as this preview is concerned.
2:05 – William Hill Epic Value Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Just eight for this handicap, which isn’t surprising given the Bunbury Cup over the same distance is being run at Newmarket tomorrow. It’s a contest where the prevailing going, and the pace of the race will decide its outcome.
Top weight Vafortino needs some juice in the ground whereas Northern Express would probably prefer a sounder surface that said the 5-year-old did win at Thirsk on soft earlier in the season.
Northern Express was a good 1 ¼ lengths 3rd of 29 in Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot last time but may need a decent pace over this trip.
Vafortino was a 4 ¾ length tenth in the same race but didn’t get the best of runs 1f out and might be better positioned in might not be the strongest run race.
Another Investment bounced back to winning ways when winning over C&D last month. That was a career best effort from the 4-year-old, but the handicapper has hiked him up 11lb for his latest success. A big rise in the weights’ makes life tougher but he can’t be ruled out over a C&D that suits.
Verdict: Another Investment has been hit hard for his recent C&D success but given his liking for the track a follow up could be on the cards.
2:40 – William Hill Summer Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Swingalong won the Group 2 Lowther Stakes last season. Well positioned but ran a cracker when a 2 lengths 3rd of 13 to Shaquille in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last time. Likely to face more pressure for the lead here but her Royal Ascot form is the best on offer.
Gale Force Maya hasn’t been at her best on two starts this season but is weighted to go well if back to her best. Her form figures over C&D are 31311 and provided the ground is good or quicker I could see the mare bouncing back this afternoon.
Pink Crystal finished a ¾ length runner-up to Gale Force Maya in a Ayr Listed race (5 ½ f) last September. There was plenty to be taken from her 1 ¾ length 3rd of 8 over C&D on last month’s seasonal return. She should be sharper today and the harder they go up front the better her chance.
Juliet Sierra won a Group 3 over the distance at Salisbury last September. Far too keen when last of 8 here over 1m on her seasonal reappearance in May. The drop back to sprinting looks a positive move and she could go well if she’s trained on from two to three.
Marine Wave has placed in both starts in Listed company this season and ran well when a ran well when 1¼ length 2nd of 10 to Makarova at Ayr (5f) 20 days ago. Looked in need of a return to 6f last time and should be in the mix once more.
Verdict: At the prices it’s worth taking on Swingalong. The return to C&D will hopefully see a return form by Gale Force Maya. However, the forecast rain would be a concern. A strongly run contest brings Pink Crystal very much into the mix but she’s another who wouldn’t want too much of the wet stuff. Three year-olds have won the last two renewals of the race which brings both Juliet Sierra and Marine Wave into contention but once more softish ground would be a bit of an unknown for the pair. My selection would be Pink Crystal but only if the ground was good or quicker.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
1:50 – Burglar – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Local Dynasty – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Prydwen – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral
3:35 – Remarquee – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:45 – Lyndon B – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Final Watch – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
I have decided to leave York alone as my fancies in the ITV races want good or quicker ground.
Cheers
John