Hi all,
Apart from Royal Ascot it’s been a tough month for the service. Indeed, thank the lord for the royal meeting it would have been a poor June otherwise. I had a winner at Newmarket on Thursday, and it would be nice to end the month with another winner and maybe even end the month in black.
It’s Day two of Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate meeting. The highlight’s of this evening’s racing are the Gosforth Park Sprint Cup Handicap (6:00) and the Group 3 Hoppings Fillies’ Stakes (6:35). The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Festival gets underway at the Curragh this evening. It’s a seven race card but for a festival the action isn’t of the highest quality. That said there are some competitive handicaps on the card that I have fancies in.
Inside today’s preview you can read my thoughts on both Newcastle races and the best of the action at the Curragh. Today’s selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Newcastle
6:35 – Jenningsbet In Shiremoor Hoppings Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
Nine fillies & mares have been declared for what’s the most valuable race either side of the Irish Sea. To all intents and purposes this looks a two horse between Nashwa and Al Husn.
Nashwa won the French Oaks at Chantilly and Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood last summer. He shaped like she needed the run when a 4 ¼ lengths 4th of 6 in a Group 2 at Saint-Cloud last month. This is the daughter of Frankel’s first run on the all-weather but there’s no reason why on pedigree she won’t handle it. She’s got the best form on offer and will be tough to beat if back to her best.
Al Husn looks her main rival. The 4-year-old won all three of her starts this season and was back to winning ways in an Ayr Listed race last time. Seems to be going the right way but needs to improve more to beat an inform Nashwa. A winner of two of her three starts on the polytrack and there’s no reason why she can’t be just as effective on the tapeta. Trainer Roger Varian has won this race twice since 2016.
Verdict: Connections of Nashwa will be disappointed if the 4-year-old can’t return to winning ways here.
6:00 – Jenningsbet In Pontefract Gosforth Park Cup Handicap – 5f
There’s £25,770 on offer to winner of this Class 2 handicap. Given the prize money on offer not surprisingly the race sees a maximum field of 14 line-up.
Badri
A six time winner on the all-weather including 2-2 over C&D has already had a good 2023 winning four times. The 6-year-old posted a career best On RPR’s when winning at Epsom (6f) 27 days ago. Up 4lb for his latest win demands a bit more from him but he’s only had four starts over the minimum trip winning three of them. Given his present vein form must be high on the shortlist.
Fine Wine
Fine Wins a dual C&D winner set a new course record when winning here in December. Was a close-up 3rd of 14 in a York handicap (5f) two starts back but was below form in a Listed race at Haydock 20 days ago. Ilkley to face plenty of pace pressure here.
Mondammej
Was ½ length and one place in front of Fine Wine at York but like that one disappointed at Haydock. However, the 6-year-old was close to his very best when a strong finishing nose 2nd of 8 at Doncaster 12 days ago. Needs all the cards to fall right but off the same mark as last time so needs respecting.
Julie Camacho has a couple of live contenders in Makanah & Look Out Louis.
Makanah
Makanah was a good 2 length 3rd of 14 in last years race and can now race off 3lb lower. Stepped up on his Musselburgh seasonal appearance when a 2 length 5th of 21 to Bielsa at York (6f) last time. Not the easiest to win with. However, he can normally be relied on to give his running and respected if reproducing last year’s performance.
Look Out Louis
Has only beaten one rival on his last two starts, which is a slight concern, but he’s undergone wind surgery which might explain is below par performances. A dual course winner in the past including C&D. The handicapper has given him a chance and he’s now 2lb below his last winning mark. Ryan Sexton takes off a handy 3lb and if the wind op has had the desired effect, he’s on a winnable mark.
Verdict: The forecast strong pace is advantageous to both Badri and Mondammej. The latter is hard to win with, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he won. Badri is in great form and can’t be ruled out. If you fancy him to follow up his Epsom success, I wouldn’t put you off.
Look Out Louis won’t want to get into a pace dual and provided he doesn’t, has each way claims. The probable pace set up should stablemate Makanah and he could be handily drawn in stall 13 alongside favourite Badri.
It’s the Camacho pair of Makanah & Look Out Louis for me. However, If I can 5/1 or bigger on Badri I will probably have a saver on him.
Curragh
6:05 – Five time course winner including twice over C&D Verhoyen always has to be respected here. A winner over C&D two starts back, from 6lb lower, he wasn’t at his best at Fairyhouse over shorter last time, but a better run is likely back here. Navagio also won over C&D last May and was back to winning ways when beating five rivals at Limerick 16 days ago. The first time cheekpieces he wore last time are retained and even off an 8lb higher mark looks like a big player.
6:40 – Alma Libre was a ½ length 2nd of 18 in last year’s race and gained a well-deserved first success at the 14th attempt when winning at Fairyhouse (1m 2f) 29 days ago. A return to 1m 4f should be fine for the mare who is well suited to a sound surface. Up 3lb for Fairyhouse win but should go close again. Tudor City has finished third in this race for the past two years. Last year the 11-year-old finished 3 ½ length behind Alma Libre and he gets 9lb from that one today. Was well behind Alma Libre last time but that was his first start for five months and you wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a lot better back up in distance. Crassus’ form figures at the Curragh are 221 but we haven’t seen him on the flat since he won a handicap here (1m 2f) in October 2021. That day it looked like he needed every yard of the 1m 2f and a step up to 1m 4f could see him win again. Just 1lb higher today but we haven’t seen him for 593 days and you must take his fitness & well-being on trust. If he’s ready roll after his long layoff he’s handicapped to go close.
7:15 – Imposing Supreme seems to be gradually working his way back to winning ways. He found things happening a bit to quickly back over 7f on good ground when a respectable 3 ¼ length 4th of 10 at Leopardstown 15 days ago. Now 6lb below his last winning mark, has run well here in the past and should give another good account of himself. Albeit he maybe being kept for a race at the Galway Festival where he’s won three times in the past.
7:50 – Top weight Nation’s Call got off the mark at the fifth attempt when winning a Gowran Park maiden (1m) 38 days ago. A mark of 90 on handicap debut requires the son of Frankel to improve again but he’s unexposed over 1m/1m 1f and could progress further. The Franchise seemed to improve for the fitting of the cheekpieces when a 1 ¾ length 2nd of 14 in a Fairyhouse maiden (7f) three weeks ago. Capable of improvement for the step up to 1m1f on pedigree and a mark of 75 looks fine on handicap debut. Semblance Of Order has improved for the step into handicap company. Finishing a head 2nd of 15 on handicap debut (7f) two starts back before appreciating the step up to a mile and the fitting of the first time blinkers when winning at Leopardstown 8 days ago. Today’s furlong longer distance should suit the 3-year-old who was strong at the finish and a 3lb rise looks more than workable.
Betting Advice:
Newcastle
6:00 – Makanah – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Look Out Louis – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Curragh
6:40 – Tudor City – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Crassus – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Ladbrokes
7:15 – Imposing Supreme – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John