Hi all,
We have reached the third day of Royal Ascot and inside today’s main piece you can find my preview of Thursday’s action. From my perspective this looks a better card than yesterday’s.
Royal Ascot – Day 3
2:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
Elite Status was a winner on soft ground at Doncaster on his racecourse debut. The colt improved again when running out an excellent winner of the Listed National Stakes at Sandown. That form sets a high standard, and you can see why he’s such a short-priced favourite after that impressive success at Sandown.
American Rascal, is a daughter ofthe smart Lady Aurelia who won twice over C&D. He showed plenty of speed when cruising to an easy win at Keeneland in April. The tongue tie is added to the blinkers, and he should go well for Wesley Ward.
Noche Magica won over the distance at Cork in April and improved again in defeat when a head 2nd of 6 to Givemethebeatboys in the Group 3 Marble Hill Stakes (6f) at the Curragh 26-days ago. The winner ran well in the Coventry Stakes on Tuesday, so the form has a solid look. Drops back to the minimum trip here but a big run is expected and if the favourite underperforms, he can take advantage.
His Majesty was a further head back in third in the Marble Hill. The drop back to 5f might suit him as well as Noche Magica but he’s trained by Aidan O’Brien and you can never dismiss any of his juveniles here, especially when their double figure odds.
Verdict: Elite Status could be something special and will be tough to beat if he is. However, at the prices I’m taking a punt at Irish challenger Noche Magica.
3:05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
The first of three big field handicaps. Nineteen were declared for this handicap for 3-year-olds only. By my reckoning eleven of the 19 are open to further improvement, which underlines how tricky this handicap is.
Perfuse, won a Nottingham novice (heavy) on his second start and followed up at Doncaster on quick ground 20 days ago. There should be more improvement to come from the son of Lope De Vega on handicap debut.
Inquiring Minds a winner of a Newcastle maiden on racecourse debut before finding the Lingfield Derby Trial to hot in the early stage of his career. He was back to form when a 2 length runner-up to Perfuse at Doncaster last time. Get’s 5lb from the winner which entitles him to get closer to that one.
Top- weight Bertinelli won a Dundalk maiden last November and has taken his form to a higher level on two starts this season including when running out a decisive winner of the London Gold Cup (1m 4f) at Newbury last time. Up 5lb for his Newbury success which makes life tougher but he’s open to further improvement for the step up to 1m 4f.
Davideo shaped with promise when runner-up to Mostabshir at Kempton on his final juvenile start and built on that when winning a Newmarket maiden (1m 2f) on his seasonal return last month. Should stay 1m 4f and is bred to be better than a 92 rated horse. Strong claims on handicap debut for a yard that one this in 2021.
Verdict: I doubt there’s a trickier handicap this week than this one. There are many potential improvers and I have gone Bertinelli and Davideo.
3:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) – 1m 4f
It’s not often that you get nineteen fillies for this middle distance contest, but we do today. Despite the big field we do have an odds-on favourite in the shape of Al Asifah. The daughter of Frankel is unbeaten on both career starts. Looking a potential Group 1 middle distance filly when winning a Goodwood Listed race just 11 days ago. Yard has won this four times since 2017.
Infinite Cosmos impressed when winning a Newmarket on her seasonal return and the daughter of Sea The Stars improved again when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 8 to Oaks winner Soul Sister in Musidora at York. Bred to improve for the step to 1m 4f and should go close.
Warm Heart is an improving middle distance from the Aidan O’Brien yard. The daughter of Galileo won a soft ground Leopardstown maiden and proved she was equally as effective on a sound surface when winning a Newbury Listed race (1m 2f) last month. She showed a good attitude to prevail that day and is bred to improve for the step up to 1m 4f. Trainer has saddled the winner of the race three times since 2014.
Bluestocking was a head behind Warm Heart at Newbury, but she was conceding racefitness to the winner and was only having her second career start. She should have come on for her Newbury race both mentally and fitness wise and the daughter of Camelot is capable of further progress with racing.
Verdict: Al Asifah could be a Group 1 filly and I think she will win but Warm Heart will hopefully repay each way support at 12/1.
4:20 – Gold Cup (Group 1) – 2m 4f
The Ascot Gold Cup run over 2m 4f is one of the world’s most prestigious flat races, it has a long history dating back to 1807 and is arguably the highlight of Royal Ascot.
The race attracts some of the best stayers. Notable winners of the Ascot Gold Cup include Yeats, who won the race four consecutive times from 2006 to 2009, and Stradivarius, who won the race in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, becoming only the third horse in history to win the race four times. In 2013 it was the late Queen’s mare Estimate who came out on top on a memorable day for the sport.
This year’s line-up doesn’t include a Yeats or Stradivarius. That said fourteen have been declared for one of the trickiest renewals I can remember.
I’m not really a trends pundit but I have noticed that 4-year-old’s have a good recent record providing eight of the last 15 winners of the race.
It’s also not really been a race for a shock winner with just 1 winner from 102 runners -81, 9 placed being returned 14/1 & bigger since 2008.
The bookies were going 100/30 the field on Wednesday with recent course winner Coltrane and last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov vying for favouritism.
Given that not many horses in the modern era stay a truly run 2m 4f it’s a bonus for supporters of Coltrane that the 6-year-old is proven over C&D having won the Ascot Stakes 12 months ago. He’s suited by a sound surface and won’t be far away.
Eldar Eldarov was a good ½ length 2nd of 6 in Yorkshire Cup at York on his seasonal return. Has the class to win this. He was doing his best work at the finish at York and could well stay and may even improve for the step up to 2m 4f. Yard’s horses going well here this week.
Broome was a length further back in third in the Yorkshire Cup. I had fancied him for this after his win in the Dubai Gold Cup (2m) at Meydan, but Ryan Moore seems to prefer stablemate Emily Dickinson.
Emily Dickinson won a Listed race at Navan (1m 6f) on her seasonal return but disappointed at Leopardstown last month. The filly has looked a thorough stayer, but it depends what sort of mood she’s in. On a going day she’s a major contender.
You have to respect Ryan’s choice, but Broome does stay I think he’s overpriced.
Subjectivist won the 2021 renewal but has only had two starts since suffering a serious tendon injury. Looked to have retained plenty of his old ability when a 5 length 3rd of 15 to Broome at Meydan last time. If he was back to his 2021 best, he would have a great chance.
Courage Mon Ami made it a perfect three from three when winning a Goodwood handicap (1m 6f) on his appearance 26 days ago. On the evidence of his Goodwood success, he should stay 2m but whether he’ll stay 2m 4f is a an unknown, but looks worth a try.
Yibir was returning from a 10 month layoff when a respectable 2 length 4th of 7 to Haskoy in Aston Park Stakes at Newbury last time. He shaped like the run was needed last time and needs further than 1m 4f these days. Not sure if he will stay this marathon trip but has the class to go close if he does.
Echoes Of Rain is a smart hurdler who won a mares Grade 1 hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last time. The 7-year-old showed she stays 2m on the flat when a neck 2nd of 30 to Waterville in Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh last September. The mare has plenty to find on Official Ratings but she’s trained by Willie Mullins so you can’t totally dismiss her.
Trueshan looks on the downgrade, but he’s had wind surgery since finishing a 7 length 4th of 6 to Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes here last month.
Verdict: One of the most opening looking Gold Cup’s I can remember. Of those at the front of the betting Eldar Eldarov has the class to win this if he stays. However, at the prices I’m taking a dart at Broome.
5:00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 2) – 1m
Thirty 3-year-old’s are set to contest this cavalry charge down on the straight mile.
Ralph Beckett won this in 2019 with Biometric and has good chance with ante post favourite Quantum Impact. The colt made it 3-5 when winning a York handicap (1m) 26-days ago. Proved his effectiveness for quick ground last time and is unexposed over the trip. Up 5lb but high on the shortlist with Dettori booked.
Royal Cape an easy soft ground Windsor novice winner on his third start maintained his progression when a 3 ¼ length 2nd of 11 to Covey in the Silver Bowl at Haydock 26 days ago. Although he seemed to handle quick ground last time, he might prefer more ease in the going.
Docklands looked well ahead of his mark when making a winning handicap debut over C&D (soft) last month. Hiked up 14lb for that success but is open to further improvement and should go close if as effective on quicker ground than last time.
Surely Not is more exposed than most of his rivals but he’s won both this season’s starts. Up 6lb for his last month’s win at Chester. Going the right way and today’s big field/ forecast strong pace should suit him well. Likely to bang there once more.
Irish challenger Fort Vega comes into the race in excellent from after wins at Gowran Park and on handicap debut at Naas (1m) last month. I’m not sure he wants really quick ground, but he showed a good turn of foot to win last time and can get involved if stall 33 isn’t an inconvenience.
Verdict: I could easily go with five here and still not find the winner. Hopefully Quantum Impact and Surely Not will give their backers a good run for their money.
5:35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
A maximum field of sixteen for this3-year-old’s only contest.
Caernarfon is the highest rated of the 16 runners. The filly who ended last season winning a Listed race at Newmarket has taken her form to an even higher level this season finishing a running on fourth in the 1,000 Guineas before posting a career best when 2 length 3rd of 9 to Soul Sister in the Oaks. The drop back to 1m 2f will suit her and she surely has a Group race in her.
Waipiro looked a good middle distance prospect when making all to win a Newmarket novice on his return to action in April. The colt improved again when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 8 to Military Order in the Lingfield Derby Trial and wasn’t disgraced when 6th of 14 in the Derby. Interesting back at 1m 2f and should be in the mix dropped in class here.
Torito was an impressive winner of the 1m 2f Betfred Lester Piggott Handicap at Haydock. A half-brother to smart middle distance fillies Journey & Mimikyu. The quick ground suited the son of Kingman at Haydock and he’s going the right way. Looks well worth his place in the line-up rather than going for the Golden Gates Handicap over C&D.
Exoplanet a winner at Newbury on his juvenile debut the colt posted a career best on RPR’s when a ½ length 3rd of 14 to Bertinelli in the London Gold Cup last month. Shapes like the type to keep improving with racing and the yard’s runners have been doing well at the meeting this week.
Verdict: Torito and Exoplanet are improving colts who should be there or thereabouts. Caernarfon takes on the boys here and looks overpriced at double figure odds after her excellent effort in the Oaks
6:10 – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 7f
Another cavalry charge on the straight track. Twenty nine have been declared and you can make some sort of case for most of them. I have cut the field down to a shortlist of seven.
Montassib finished a 1 ½ length 5th of 29 in last year’s race and looked better than ever when winning at Newmarket 33 days ago. A 4lb rise in weight’s makes life harder but the 5-year-old has only had ten career starts and could be capable of an even big performance.
Kingdom Come looked a potential Group horse when completing a hat trick at Kempton two starts back. Was well fancied for the Victoria Cup over C&D but was withdrawn due to soft ground. Likely not suited by the step up to mile when 2 length 4th of 12 at Newbury 33-days ago. Back down to 7f and probably remains on a good mark.
Lir Speciale was much improved by wind surgery last autumn, winning at Windsor and Kempton. The 4-year-old looked even better when returning from 7 month absence to land a Kempton handicap last month. Up 7lb demands more from him but he’s going the right way and shouldn’t be far away.
Vafortino won last season’s Victoria Cup over C&D and looked unlucky in the run when a 4 length 11th of 29 in last year’s renewal. Another solid effort over C&D when a 4 ¼ length 3rd of 22 in this year’s Victoria Cup. Probably vulnerable of his present mark to better treated rivals but likely to give another good account of himself over a C&D that suits.
Spirit Of Light is on a losing run that goes back to 2021 but he’s got pieces of form that would give a good chance. Back to form for the return to quicker ground when a 2 length 4th to Bielsa at York (6f) last month. Return to 7f no issue for the 6-year-old who went close in a 7f handicap at Meydan in January.
Rhoscolyn is on a losing run that goes back to June 2021, and was to free in a modestly run race at Epsom last time. However, there’s been plenty of good performances from the 5-year-old in 7f/1m big field handicaps since his last win including when a length 3rd of 29 in last year’s race. Now 10lb lower than 12 months ago and too tempting to ignore.
Ropey Guest usually runs well in these big field C&D handicaps and took advantage of a drop in class to win a Goodwood handicap last month. Finished a length runner-up in last year’s race, from 3lb lower. Despite a 7lb rise in the weights for his Goodwood success he should be in the mix.
Verdict: Kingdom Come, Lir Speciale and the well handicapped Rhoscolynget the nodin a race where I could easily have seven running for me.
Betting Advice:
Royal Ascot
3:05 – Bertinelli – 1pt win – 15/2 @ William Hill and Davideo -1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:40 – Warm Heart – 1pt each way – 12/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places)
4:20 – Broome – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:00 – Quantum Impact – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Surely Not – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
6:10 – Kingdom Come – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Lir Speciale -1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Rhoscolyn – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John