Hi all,
Heavy rain arrived at Ascot before the first day of the royal meeting, with around 10mm of rain hitting the track overnight. The going was changed to good, good to soft in places on the round track before the start of the first race. I’m writing this preview before the start of racing, so I don’t know whether its even easier ground than is being described.
It should be dry on Tuesday night although there could be some showers on Wednesday afternoon. If Ascot misses the showers, it should be quicker ground today. Well, that’s what I’m hoping for.
As was the case yesterday I have once more previewed all seven races on the card and Wednesday’s selections and betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Royal Ascot – Day 2
After a big day of punting on Tuesday, Wednesday is a bit quieter on the betting front. Mind you Day 2 does include my favourite race of the five days the Royal Hunt Cup.
2:30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
Twenty eight juvenile fillies most of whom who are open to further progress what’s not to like.
Karl Burke has a formidable bunch of 2-year-olds, and he saddled last year’s winner. He’s got two leading contenders in Bright Diamond and Got To Love A Grey. The first named was a £360,000 breeze-up purchase and her professionalism was evidence when winning at Nottingham on her racecourse debut 14 days ago. Got To Love A Grey also won on her racecourse debut at Nottingham and the followed up in a Listed race in York. Others might be open to more improvement but given the attitude she showed last time she won’t be far away.
Born To Rock looked like a Royal Ascot filly when winning at Yarmouth on her racecourse debut 28 days ago. She’s open to further improvement and William Buick is a positive jockey booking.
Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking forFrench Challenger Balsam. The daughter of Wootton Bassett got of the mark at the third attempt when beating six rivals in a Listed race at Vichy last month. Another going the right way and can get into the frame. Another going the right way and can get into the frame provided she’s as effective on quicker ground.
Verdict: I’m expecting the Karl Burke fillies Bright Diamond and Got To Love A Grey to go close. Ryan Moore is an eyecatching booking for French challenger Balsam and Born To Rock has to be high on the shortlist.
3:05 – Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
A maximum field of twenty fillies & mares on the round course. What could go wrong? Well it’s a race where there could be a a few hard luck stories given the size of the field.
Tamarama was back to winning ways when making all to win a Kempton handicap 14 days ago. Up 5lb for her latest success and the 4-year-old shouldn’t be far away once more with Dettori sticking with her once more.
Yerwanthere won on her Leopardstown racecourse debut for her previous trainer and then followed up at Dundalk on her first start for Joseph O’Brien in December. Hadn’t been asked for her effort when not getting a run 2f out on her seasonal return when a 3 ¾ length 7th of 11 in a Listed race at Naas last month. Definite claims on handicap debut with James McDonald booked. Stablemate Adelaise posted a career best on RPR’s when a ½ length 3rd of 20 in a Curragh handicap 26 days ago. The sound surface suited her last time and off just 1lb higher looks set to go close.
Tarrabb won three of her seven starts in a productive 2022. The 4-year-old made a solid start to the new season when a 1 length 2nd of 4 at Chelmsford last month. The return to a mile will suit and she can go close.
Lady Eros was back to winning ways for the return to quick ground when winning at Yarmouth 20 days ago. Up 6lb in a deeper race but looks capable of further progress and should be there or thereabouts.
Verdict: Adelaise can go close if the ground is no worse than good and the same applies to Tarrabb who are my main fancies in an open looking handicap.
3:40 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) – 1m
Another mile race for the fillies & mares but this one on the straight course.
Prosperous Voyage is a Group 1 winner without a penalty, and she was back to winning ways when successful in a Group 3 at Epsom 18 days ago. A straight mile suits the 4-year-old as does a sound surface so she must have solid claims of another win
Jumbly made an encouraging debut for Jospeh O’Brien when a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 8 to Just Beautiful in a Group 2 at the Curragh 24 days ago. In his Racing Post Stable Tour the trainer stated that this was the filly’s target and I think she’s the one to beat.
Verdict: This looks between Prosperous Voyage and Jumbly and I just prefer the claims of the latter.
4:20 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f
The Prince of Wales’s Stakes is one of the most prestigious Group 1 races run during the Royal Ascot meeting. Raced over 1m 2f, it’s open to horses aged four years old and older.
The race has a long history, first being run in 1862. Over the years, it’s been won by the likes of Brigadier Gerard, Dubai Millennium, Ouija Board, and Highland Reel.
This year’s renewal has attracted just six runners, but from a quality perspective, it looks like the race of Royal Ascot to me. Five of the six runners are separated by just 2lb on Official Ratings.
The first thing to stand out is the lack of pace in the race. Luxembourg proved his tactical versatility when making all to win the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last time. I thought he got a peach of a ride from Ryan Moore that day and had enough in hand to hold off Bay Bridge. If there’s no pace, I would expect Ryan to go on, and he could easily follow up.
Bay Bridge was a ½ length runner-up to Luxembourg at the Curragh, but I thought the winner was always holding him. The 5-year-old was a bit keen last time, and that could prove to be the case here if there’s no pace on once more. A length runner-up in last year’s race, he’s got to be respected given his liking for the C&D, but he would want the showers to arrive.
Adayar won the Derby at Epsom and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes here in 2021. His best performance last season came when a ½ length 2nd of 9 to Bay Bridge in the Champion Stakes over C&D last October. He took advantage of the drop into Group 3 company on his seasonal return when winning the Gordon Richards Stakes at Newmarket last month. The runner-up Anmaat has since gone on to win the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp. A smart performer at his best, he looks more than capable of winning a Group 1 over 1m 2f, and we do know he likes the track.
My Prospero was just a nose behind Adayar in the Champion Stakes. The 4-year-old had earlier in the season finished a short head third to Coroebus in the St James’s Palace Stakes. There was plenty to like about his seasonal reappearance effort when a 2 ½ length 4th of 12 to Modern Games in the Lockinge Stakes (1m). He got outpaced 2f out but was doing his best work at the finish that day, and the return to 1m 2f looks a big plus.
Mostahdaf isn’t totally without a chance on ratings, and we do know the 5-year-old goes well fresh and on quick ground. That said, I will be disappointed if he were to win a race as hot as this.
It’s good to see the race has attracted an international challenger in the shape of Classic Causeway. The American-trained 4-year-old hasn’t been in the winner’s enclosure since landing the Belmont Derby last July. He could be a pace angle. Quick ground suits, but even a reproduction of his best American form wouldn’t be good enough.
Verdict: Despite the small field I think this is a tricky race. It looks like Aidan O’Brien has got Luxembourg in a good place and his tactical versatility means he remains very much the one to beat. More ease in this ground brings Bay Bridge into the mix but he needs to settle better than he did last time. My Prospero will be suited by the return to 1m 2f and the colt can’t be far away from a breakthrough Group 1 success provided the ground hasn’t eased too much.
5:00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m
A maximum field of 30 handicappers are set for this annual cavalry charge down the straight course. I had nine on my initial shortlist which shows the race is as competitive as ever.
Looking at the pace maps it seems to me that most of it seems to be amongst those drawn middle to high and it’s those that I’m going to favour today.
The hat trick seeking Ghaly ended last season with handicap wins at York & Newmarket. He looked like a pattern performer when winning last time and trainer Saeed Bin Suroor who won this is 2021 has booked Osin Murphy for the ride. I wouldn’t be concerned that this is seasonal return as he’ll be spot on fitness wise for this. There’s plenty in his favour but stall 8 is slightly off putting.
Perotto (30) won the Britannia Handicap over C&D in 2021 for his previous yard and shaped with plenty of promise when a 5 ¾ length 7th of 22 in the Victoria Cup (7f) here in May. That was his first start for Roger Varian and the return to a mile and a sound surface will suit the five year-old. Well treated on the best of his form and has been well backed in the ante post market.
Intellogent (31) was a ½ length 2nd of 29 in last year’s race from 1lb higher. The 8-year-old shaped with encouragement when a 3 ¾ length 6th of 12 at Newbury last month and should be spot on fitness wise today. He’s well suited to a big field and should go close again.
David O’Meara runners need respecting in handicaps like this and he has a couple of live contenders in Blue For You (26) & Orbaan (19). Blue For You won a valuable handicap at York last August and shaped like the run was needed when a 3 length 5th of 16 on York on his return to action last month. Orbaan won the valuable Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood last summer and followed up in minor race here over 7f. The 8-year-old was below his best on his first two starts this season but bounced back to form when a 1 ¼ length 4th of 12 at Epsom 19 days ago. Dropping down to a good mark and should be in the mix.
Atrium (24) was a progressive mile handicapper last season winning three times including over C&D. The latest of those wins came from 1lb lower at Doncaster in September. Has been below his best on three starts this season but gets the first time cheekpieces and will be suited by the forecast strong pace.
Wanees (5) was sixth in last year’s Britannia Handicap over C&D and won a Haydock handicap last September from 2lb lower. Got stuck in the mud on his seasonal return in the Lincoln Handicap but was a bitterly disappointing 10th of 12 (4/1) at Newbury last month. The first time blinkers are applied by trainer Charlie Hills who won this last year and in 2019. Despite reservations about his low draw. If the headgear has the desired effect, I can see him going well.
Verdict: The draw could prove all important here. Despite his low draw I want to keep the first time blinkered Wanees onside. The well handicapped Perotto, last year’s runner-up Intellogent and Atrium in the first time cheekpieces are all high on my shortlist from their high draws.
5:35 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2) – 1m 6f
Gregory a winner at Haydock on his racecourse debut improved again when landing a Goodwood Listed race (1m 3f) 26 days ago. Looked a very useful staying prospect last time and on pedigree should be suited by the step up to 1m 6f. Looks to have a favourites chance and the one to beat.
Circle Of Fire had no chance from his position when a 5 ½ length 3rd of 8 to Military Order in Lingfield’s Derby Trial last time. He should stay 1m 6f, Likely capable of better than we have seen so far and makes plenty of appeal.
Chesspiece improved to win a York handicap (1m 4f) in good style last time. The colt has since been purchased by Godolphin and holds an Arc entry. Capable of more progress upped to 1m 6f and shouldn’t be underestimated on just is fourth career start.
Peking Opera won a Leopardstown maiden on his second start last October and improved again when making a winning seasonal return in a Navan Listed race (1m 5f) last month. The son of Galileo looked all about stamina last time and should be suited by today’s extra furlong. Respected for a yard that has won the race five times since 2013.
Etna Rosso a winner of Limerick maiden on racecourse debut in April was a ½ length 2nd of 6 to Peking Opera last time. Another capable of improvement and looks well worth his place in the line-up.
Verdict: This could turn out to be an above average renewal of the race. The unbeaten Gregory looks the right favourite and is capable of better for the step up in trip. Peking Opera hails from a yard with an excellent record in the race and Chesspiece impressed when winning at York last month and looks an ideal type for this race.
6:10 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) – 5f
A tricky concluding race with twenty six juvenile colts & geldings set to meet the starter many of whom are capable of better.
Maximum Impact coped well with heavy ground when making a winning racecourse debut at Leicester in April before following up on good ground over C&D last month. First time tongue is fitted, and the son of Havana Grey should be bang there.
Barnwell Boy looked like a good prospect when making a winning racecourse debut at Goodwood (6f) last month. Looked a Royal Ascot juvenile last time and the drop back to a stiff 5f shouldn’t inconvenience the son of Starspangledbanner who didn’t look short of pace at Goodwood.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2015 including last year with Little Big Bear. He saddles the well fancied Johannes Brahms. The son of Siyouni overcame greenness to win at Naas on his racecourse debut last month. Will stay further than 5f and looks a useful prospect.
Bombay Bazaar has won his last two starts both at Beverley. Slowly away last time but strong at the finish last and he’s clearly suited to a stiff 5f. Looks capable of better and has a good chance of completing the hat trick.
Supersonic Man was slowly away when a promising 4 ½ length 4th of 5 to River Tiber at Naas. Showed the benefit of his racecourse debut when winning at Tipperary nine days later. There’s better to come from the speedily bred son of Bungle Inthejungle.
Verdict: A tricky getting out stakes if you’re having a bad day. Johannes Brahms is very much respected as are the likes of Maximum Impact and Barnwell Boy. I liked the manner of Bombay Bazaar’s Beverley win and both he and Supersonic Man will be suited by the forecast strong pace.
Betting Advice:
A good first day but it will get tougher as the week progresses. Not as much action on the betting front on Wednesday but hopefully you will appreciated the preview.
Royal Ascot
3:05 – Adelaise – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Tarrabb – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:00 – Intellogent – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes Wanees – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Atrium – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:35 – Peking Opera – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral and Chesspiece – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
6:10 – Bombay Bazaar – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John