Hi all,
The Epsom Derby Festival gets underway this afternoon. Not only do we have the third Classic of the season, the Betfred Oaks (4:30) to look forward to too. The undercard also has a cracking renewal of the Group 1 Coronation Cup (3.10) as the older horse’s race over the Derby trip.
In today’s preview you can read my thoughts on the seven race card with the first five races being live on ITV.
Epsom Derby Festival
2:00 – British EBF 40th Anniversary Woodcote Stakes (Conditions) (Class 2) – 6f
Richard Hannon won the race in 2014 & 2016 and he saddles Haatem & The Camden Colt. The first named built on the promise of his racecourse debut third when winning at Bath (5 ½ f) 16 days ago. The slightly longer trip will suit the colt and looks capable of going close. Ryan Moore has been booked for The Camden Colt who looked useful juvenile when winning at Haydock 8 days ago.
2:35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap (Class 2) – 1m ½ f
Rhoscolyn won the 7f handicap at this meeting in 2021 which remains the 5-year-old’s last win. Plenty of good performances in big handicaps, off higher marks, since and is on a good mark if bouncing back after a couple of low key runs this season.
Charlie Johnson saddles Austrian Theory & Dutch Decoy. The former was back to his best when a 4 length 3rd of 11 to Boardman at Chester last Saturday. He’s 3lb below his last winning mark and if the same form after a quick turnaround shouldn’t be far away. Dutch Decoy was back to something like his best when a 2 length 4th of 13 at Hamilton 19 -days ago. Can’t afford to get too far behind like he did last time but is back down to his last winning mark and like his stablemate has to be in the mix.
Fantastic Fox produced his best RPR when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 15 in this corresponding race 12 months. He’s 5lb lower this time around and Osin Murphy is a positive jockey booking for the 5-year-old. Stall 13 isn’t necessarily ideal but he’s high on my shortlist.
All The King’s Men, a winner at Lingfield in January, ran well when a 1 ½ lengths 3rd of 15 at Thirsk (7f) 13-days ago. Same mark here but probably needs today’s longer trip and the addition of the first time blinkers to eke out a bit more improvement. Trainer and Jockey combined to win last year’s race.
3:10 – Dahlbury Coronation Cup (Group 1) – 1m 4f
Just the five runners but a cracking renewal of the race and you couldn’t rule any of them out.
Westover was third in last year’s Derby before going onto win the Irish Derby. Shaped well enough on his return to action in the Sheema Classic at Meydan. Not sure how well he will settle in today’s small field but has the look of a horse who can do better as a 4-year-old.
Hurricane Lane, third in the 2021 Derby and that season’s Irish Derby/St Leger winner. He bounced back for a poor seasonal reappearance when winning the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket last month. Better ground and the first time cheekpieces helped that day and he’s a big contender.
Emily Upjohn an unlucky runner-up in last season’s Oaks makes her seasonal reappearance. The filly ended last season with a Group 1 success in the Fillies & Mares Group 1 on Champions Day. Another capable of better this season and gets a handy 3lb from her four rivals.
Point Lonsdale, a useful juvenile made just one start as a 3-year-old when down the field in the 2,000 Guineas. The 4-year-old has looked better than ever when winning both this season’s starts. Raced lazily at Chester last time but the step up to 1m 4f should help and should no one go on seems the most likely pace angle.
German Challenger Tunnes may be the outsider of the five but on Official Ratings (ORs) he’s most definitely not. He made all to win a German Group 1 last November before losing any chance he had at the start in the Japan Cup. Better for his recent seasonal return. Likely to lead and if he’s effective on much quicker ground can’t be ruled out for a trainer who won this in 2002.
3:45 – Betfred Handicap (Class 2) – 1m 2f
A competitive 11 runner handicap. The five on my shortlist are Marhaha The Champ. Savvy Victory, Majestic, Honiton, and Dual Identity.
Honiton a winner on quick ground at Sandown last summer, appreciated the rturn to better ground when beating five rivals at Newmarket two weeks ago. Up 4lb for that success but unexposed jin handicap company and could be capable of better.
Marhaha The Champ was another to appreciate the return to a sound surface when winning at York 14 days ago. Only up 2lb for that success and should go close in the first time tongue tie. Majestic came from further back in that York race to finish a 1 length 4th. Last season’s Cambridgeshire winner
Savvy Victory was a steady improver in the second half of last season winning at Goodwood in August and finishing a 4 length 5th of 28 to Majestic in the Cambridgeshire. The 4-year-old improved again when a 1 length 2nd of 9 at Chester last time. Nudged up 2lb for his latest effort but in the mix with Ryan Moore keeping the ride.
Dual Identity was an improving handicapper at this sort of trip last season finishing a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 28 to Majestic in the Cambridgeshire, doing best of those who raced far side that day. The 4-year-old finished 2 ½ length behind Honiton last time but today’s bigger field and better pace will suit and he’s a winnable mark.
4:30 – Betfred Oaks (Group 1) – 1m 4f
We have a short price favourite in Savethelastdance winner of the Cheshire Oaks on her last start. Lift Shift (2007) and Enable (2017) were the last two fillies to do the Cheshire Oaks/Oaks double and Savethelastdance was more impressive than either of those two fillies. Ok, she’s never raced on ground better than good, but her dam won on firm in America so there’s no reason why she won’t be just as effective on a sound surface despite her knee action. Not that I’m expecting good to firm ground on Friday. The taps have been turned on the ground will be on the easier side of good. I have suspicion that Savethelastdance will win and could be a special filly.
The Gosden yard run impressive Musidora winner Soul Sister and the progressive Running Lion.
Soul Sister beat the pace bias to come from behind to win at York last time. She’s not guaranteed to stay 1m 4f given the pace showed to win last time. Of more concern would be easy ground combined with the distance given it was pretty much good to firm at York.
Running Lion continues to go the right way and won the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket last time. Easy ground won’t concern her as she won on soft at Newmarket. However, there are doubts as to her stamina for 1m 4f.
If you want to have a swing at one at big odds, you will do worse than have something on Heartache Tonight. A half-sister to the stable’s star middle distance filly Wonderful Tonight. A winner of a Longchamp maiden on her racecourse debut last October she improved again to finish a 1 ½ length 4th of 10 in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary (1m 2f) at Longchamp 19 days ago. Not suited by the steady early pace at Longchamp last time and a better run race over 1m 4f should really suit her on pedigree. Albeit her smart half-sister was at her very best in the mud.
5:10 – Nyetimber Surrey Stakes (Listed Race) – 7f
Holguin will be a short price here after his improved neck 2nd of 6 to Angel Bleu in a similar race at Haydock 20 days ago. The looks the colt’s optimum trip and he will be tough to beat.
Olivia Maralda wasn’t disgraced when a 1½ length 7th of 20 to Mawj in 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket on her stable debut for Roger Varian. Better ground will suit her as should the drop back to 7f and she’s one to consider.
Streets Of Gold was a very useful juvenile who was unbeaten on his five starts last season. Well beaten on seasonal return in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury but has had wind surgery since and could easily bounce back to form.
He’s A Monster made it 3-4 when beating three rivals in a handicap at Kempton in April. Up significantly in class here but looked better than handicapper last time. Has been gelded since but needs to prove he can transfer his all-weather ability to turf. Trainer & jockey combined to win this in 2021.
5:45 – Winners Wear Cavani Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
Marlay Park, Signcastle City and Clochette are the three on my short list for a tricky concluding race on Oaks Day.
Marlay Park races in a better race than he needs to but there was plenty to like about his 3 ¾ lengths 5th of 9 to Ropey Guest at Goodwood 7-days ago. The 5-year-old has an exceptional record over C&D – 3 wins from 8 runs, 7 places and can never be ruled out at his local track.
Signcastle City, a winner of a Salisbury maiden as 2-year-old, posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1 ¾ length 3rd of 13 at Newmarket 13 days ago. Off the same mark here and looks on workable mark. if he gets a good gallop to chase he shouldn’t be far away once more.
Clochette got off the mark at the second attempt when winning at Ascot (6f) last July. Possibly found a mile stretching her stamina on seasonal reappearance when 5th of 8 in a Listed race at York 14 days ago. The 3-year-old makes her handicap debut here and could be capable of better.
Betting Advice:
Epsom
2:35 – Fantastic Fox -1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Dutch Decoy – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:10 – Tunnes – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:45 – Dual Identity – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Savvy Victory – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:30 – Heartache Tonight – 1pt each way – 28/1 @ Bet365 (paying 3 places)
Cheers
John