Hi all,
After a couple of busy weeks, it’s been a quiet start to the week with no selections. The weekend starts on Thursday, and we have four busy days of racing to look forward to including Classic action this weekend at the Curragh.
There’s the best evening card of the season at Sandown today. Last season’s Derby hero Desert Crown is set to have his first start since winning at Epsom in the in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes (7:42).
The Listed National Stakes (6:42), for the juveniles and the Group 3 Henry II Stakes (7:12) complete a six race card.
In this preview I’m going to look at the three big races on the Sandown card starting with the Brigadier Gerard Stakes.
Sandown
7:42 – Brigadier Gerard Stakes (Group 3) – 1m 2f
Desert Crown faces five rivals in the Brigadier Gerard including last year’s Coronation Cup winner Hukum. The latter is a worthy adversary to the favourite but he’s having first start since a very serious injury almost ended his career and may just need the run.
On the night a bigger rival could be Cash. The lightly raced 4-year-old shaped with promise when a ¾-length 2nd of 5 to Chindit in Listed race (1m) at Ascot 22 days ago. He will strip fitter this evening and the return to 1m 2f can elicit more improvement from the colt.
With Desert Crown having a having a likely pacemaker in Solid Stone. Everything looks set for last year’s Derby winner to make a winning return to action but don’t rule out a big run from Cash who has fitness on his side.
6:42 – The National Stakes could turn out to be the race of the evening with nine of the ten declared runners having win last time out. The two I like most are Dapper Valley and Blue Storm.
Dapper Valley looked a smart juvenile when winning at Newbury on his racecourse debut last month. The ground was soft that day, but he’s bred to be effective on quicker ground. Looks sure to improve with racing and could be a Royal Ascot juvenile.
Blue Storm looked useful when winning on racecourse debut at Newmarket last month. The runner-up won at York last week and the third won at Chester’s May Meeting, so the form of the Newbury race looks strong.
7:12 – Just five have been declared for the 2m Group 3 Henry II Stakes. If you want my honest opinion, it’s a dreadful race for the grade.
Nate The Great and Enemy were second and fifth in last year’s race. Given Nate The Great looks the only pace angle in the race I would expect him to confirm that form with Enemy even the latter is the highest of these on Official Rating’s (OR’s) once more in this small field scenario.
Roberto Escobarr returned from a 13 month layoff with an encouraging enough ½ length 3rd of 5 at Wolverhampton in March. He’s got a bit to find on OR’s with Enemy and Nate The Great but he’ll appreciate the good ground and is in the mix.
There are three handicaps on the card with the best of them being the last two races on the card.
8:12 – Not surprisingly two lightly raced 4-year-old’s Assessment and Yaanaas are at the front end of the betting.
Assessment looked useful when making a winning return from a 10 month layoff at Kempton last month. A gelding operation seems to have had the desired effect and a 6lb rise in weight’s shouldn’t stop this improving sort who looks a worthy favourite.
Yaanaas has had less start than the favourite. A winner of a Kempton novice (1m) in April the gelding was an excellent 1 ½ length 2nd of 15 at Ascot handicap debut 3 weeks ago. Nudged up just 1lb he’s open to further improvement.
Helm Rock was just a neck behind Yaanaas at Ascot. The 5-year-old bounced back to form last time on his second start of the season. He doesn’t have the handicapping scope of Yaanaas but William Buick takes over in the saddle and that gives him each way claims.
Azano was on a going day when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 10 at Newmarket 20 days ago. He would have to be respected if reproducing that performance today, but his profile suggests he’s more likely not to.
Verdict: Assessment and Yaanaas are rightly at the head of the betting with the latter just having the edge for me. I’m expecting a big run from Helm Rock who was just behind Yaanaas last time.
8:42 – Greek Order showed ability on his two juvenile starts last season and made a good return to action when 3rd of 8 at Salisbury three weeks ago. Good claims on handicap debut stepped up to a mile but the yard has gone 51 runners since its last winner.
Prince Of Zenda came up a well handicapped rival when 2nd of 7 at Ascot 13 days ago. There’s a handicap in the gelding off his present mark.
Island Star made a winning seasonal return on first start since switching to Roger Varian in a Kempton maiden in April. He was too keen when a 2 ½ length 3rd of 11 at Goodwood on handicap debut 20 days ago. There’s another race in the colt if he settles better and the forecast strong pace should suit him.
Umberto has shaped well on his three career starts including when a 7 ¼ length 3rd of 13 to Embesto in maiden at Yarmouth on turf debut 20 days ago. Looks the sort to do better in handicap company and a mark of 80 looks workable. William Buick, 2-8 when combining with trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy, has been booked which puts him high on the shortlist.
Verdict: Greek Order is the most likely winner but given his yards form 9/4 makes no appeal. At the prices I much prefer the claims of Umberto and Island Star.
Betting Advice:
Sandown
7:42 – Cash – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral (Personally I wouldn’t want less than 7/1)
8:12 – Helm Rock – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbbrokes
8:42 – Umberto – 1pt win -11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Island Star – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Cheers
John