Hi all,
There were a few gremlins in the works yesterday and Daily Punt readers got more race previews than intended. Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of the action at Newmarket.
It’s Qipco 1,000 Guineas Day at Newmarket with the first fillies classic the feature of an eight race card.
Who knows how much more rain will fall at Newmarket? It’s a bit of a punter’s nightmare. There was plenty of the wet stuff about on Saturday which turned the ground soft. We also have the possibility of heavy showers in the area on Sunday, but the track could miss them altogether. If it’s a dry day then the track will dry out as it does at this time of year but you will still likely want horses who want ease in the ground.
The ITV racing cameras are taking four races live from Newmarket this afternoon. There’s also a race apiece from Hamilton and Salisbury.
Today I have looked at the six races on ITV and my betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Newmarket
Qipco 1,000 Guineas (3:40)
Twenty were left in the first fillies classic of the new season.
Last season’s two best juvenile fillies were Tahiyra & Meditate and those two dominate the ante post market. Tahiyra was impressive when beating Meditate in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes last season. Ok, the latter has experience of the track having finished runner-up in the Cheveley Park Stakes. However, that apart and I don’t really see why Meditate should reverse placings on Sunday.
The trends boys will tell you that Tahiyra can’t win because the last ten winners of the race all had at least three starts as a juvenile.
For those looking for one at bigger odds you could do worse than look at Stenton Glider and Caernarfon. The first named looks better value (28/1) than Remarquee (7/1) who beat her a neck in the Fred Darling last time. Caernarfon is a battled hardened filly and won a Listed race over C&D on soft ground last Autumn. At around 50/1 and with four places available she looks worth a modest each way play. That said if there is a ‘superstar’ filly in the line up its Tahiyra and anything above 2/1 looks good value to this pundit.
1:50 – Howden Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 6f
Cemhaan won this 12 months ago off a much lower mark and won on the July Course in August off 5lb lower. Won first time up last season and has a wind op since a poor run in the November Handicap. Given his liking for the track must be high on the shortlist.
Irish challenger Firstman was third in handicap hurdle at Leopardstown last time an prior to that was in good form on the all-weather at Dundalk. Likes to come off a strong pace and should get that here.
Sea King looked like a work in progress last season and still looked raw when a short head 2nd of 10 at Haydock last September, placed 4th after hampering a rival inside the final furlong. This should be his trip this season and he did win first time up last season. I’m not sure about soft ground though.
I saw Legendary Day win at Ripon (2m) last Saturday. Has a 5lb penalty to carry in better race but useful Irish apprentice Jamie Powell comes over to take off 5lb. With race fitness on his side the 5-year-old can’t be discounted especially he well suited to soft ground.
Duke Of Verona is another suited by give in the ground. He carries a 5lb penalty to carry after he won at Leicester (1m 4f) on heavy ground on his seasonal return. The return to 1m 6f is a positive and he’s another that needs respecting.
2:25 – Howden Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) – 1m 2f
It’s an open-looking race with seven of the ten fillies having won last time out and most of those are open to further progress.
The Gosden yard won this race five times between 2014 & 2020 and they saddle bookies early bird favourite Running Lion & Tarjamah. Both won last time out, are likely capable of better over 1m 2f and hold Oaks entries.
Queen Of Fairies looked a nice prospect when winning on her racecourse debut at Southwell in December. Yard won this 12 months ago and could be set for back to back successes in the race.
Floating Spirit has won both career starts on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield. Another potential improver if as effective on the turf. Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking.
Trust The Stars is another Oaks entry and the daughter of Sea The Stars who won here (1m) on racecourse debut last September. Has a good middle distance pedigree and should stay 1m 4f. Not out of this if making the expected improvement from two to three.
3:00 – Howden Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) – 1m 1f
French challenger Life In Motion is the ante post favourite after making a winning seasonal return in a Listed contest at Longchamp 17-days ago. If the rain arrives, she won’t be inconvenienced either. Trainer Andre Fabre saddled the winner of this in 2014 & 2016 and could be set to train another winner of the race.
Prosperous Voyage finished a neck runner-up in last year’s 1,000 Guineas on seasonal return and won the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes on the July Course. Likely needs quick ground to be seen at her best so connections will be hoping the rain stays away.
Via Sistina enjoys ease underfoot and can win a race like this when she gets her ground. If the rain has arrived to ease the ground, then she’s a player even though she probably needs 1m 2f.
Al Husn was a big improver last autumn winning handicaps here over 1m & 1m 2f. There should be more to come from the daughter of Dubawi as a 4-year-old.
With The Moonlight began last season by running out an impressive winner of the Pretty Polly on the card. She went pot hunting overseas after finishing last of 11 in the Epsom Oaks and looked good when winning twice at Meydan over the winter. Given her course form she’s respected but arguably needs quick ground to win.
Hamilton
2:05 – Patersons Of Greenoakhill Buttonhook Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 6f
Postileo looked a progressive staying handicapper in 2021 and ended that campaign with a win over an extended 1m 6f at Doncaster (soft). Missed all last season and returns from a 562-day layoff but likely be fit enough and won’t be phased by soft ground.
Keith Dalgleish has a couple of live contenders in Good Show & Haizoom. The former won here (1m 4f) on his racecourse debut last August. He failed to justify strong market support (9/2) in the Queen’s Cup (Handicap) at Musselburgh on his seasonal return. Given market expectations the 4-year-old is on a good mark and Danny Tudhope is a good jockey booking. Haizoom won over C&D last May from 1lb lower. The 5-year-old made a pleasing return to action when a 4 ½ length 4th of 11 at Thirsk last time. The mare looks capable of going close if building on her Thirsk effort.
Zimmerman was a 2 length 2nd of 11 (Haizoom 4th) at Thirsk on his seasonal return 15-days ago. Won twice over 1m 6f on good to soft ground last autumn. The return to the distance will suit as will any ease in the ground and he should go well.
Wickywickywheels won a Listed race at Abu Dhabi in December prior to that the 5-year-old had proved to be a real Hamilton specialist winning five times here including 2-3 over C&D. She wasn’t seen at her best in the Queens Cup last time but better is expected back here.
Salisbury
It’s heavy at Salisbury and more overnight rain is forecast which means the course will have to pass a precautionary morning inspection to see if racing can go head.
2:40 – City Bowl Handicap (Class 3) – 1m 6f
Likely favourite Mr Inspiration is now a non-runner, so we are down to just seven runners.
Secret Shadow a four time winner when trained by Andrew Balding has since moved to Paul Nicholls and probably needed the run when 5th of 10 at Newbury on her seasonal return 16-days ago.
Andrew Balding saddles Whimsy was in good form on the turf last autumn. Disappointing on the all-weather 19-days ago but she previous course winner and seems likely to get her own way out in front on her first start beyond 1m 4f.
Prince Alex was one place and five lengths in front of Secret Shadow at Newbury. That was a promising stable debut for the 6-year-old who was a progressive staying handicapper a couple of seasons back and is now 2lb below his last winning mark. Handicapped to win again if on a going day.
Wandering Rocks a useful handicapper last season finishing a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 10 to Sam Cooke at Newbury (1m 4f) last September. Now 2lb lower and was a decent 2 ½ lengths 7th of 13 at Kempton (1m 3f) on his seasonal return last month. Stamina for 1m 6f to prove but if he stays is handicapped to go close and trainer James Fanshawe has his horses in winning form.
Betting Advice:
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
1:50 – Cemhaan – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Legendary Day – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
3:40 – Caernarfon – 1pt each way – 50/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes (both paying 4 places)
Hamilton
2:05 – Wickywickywheels – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Haizoom – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Salisbury
2:40 – Prince Alex – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John