Hi all,
The curtain descends on the British & Irish jumps seasons at Sandown and Punchestown this afternoon. It’s Finale Day at Sandown when this season’s top trainer and jockey will be crowned. Paul Nicholls is once again Champion Trainer and Brian Hughes has long had the jockey’s title in the bag.
I will not be watching the racing from the sofa this afternoon as I’m off to Ripon this afternoon. I will be having some bets on the Ripon card but given I will not be placing any bets until before the races I won’t be looking at those races in today’s preview. Instead, I will concentrate on the seven races live on ITV. Starting with the big betting race of the weekend the Bet365 Gold Cup.
Apologies in advance but this Saturday’s preview is an exceptionally long one. It’s long because it’s a day brim-full of quality racing.
Sandown
Bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2:15)
Eighteen were left in the race at Thursday’s final declaration stage and they don’t include last year’s winner Hewick.
Frodon will now carry top weight 12-0. He should give his backers a good run for their money out in front, but will he stay and extended 3m 4f?
Kitty’s Light doesn’t have a penalty for last Saturday’s Scottish Grand National success. You couldn’t rule out what would be an incredible big race double, but the quick turnaround makes me look elsewhere at his current 5/1 and any easing of the ground would be a worry.
Tea Clipper’s 6th of 23 to Corach Rambler in Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham is now looking strong form and his claims would be enhanced on good ground.
Annsam looked better than ever when winning last time and is well suited to going right handed. Stamina for trip is a bit of an unknown but if he stays, he’s capable of winning off his new mark.
Revels Hill has solid claims as does Coolvalla. The latter beat Revels Hill a length at Exeter last timeand is 2lb worse off here. However, he knows how to win and if the rain arrives to ease the ground I can see him confirming form.
Paul Nicholls has targeted Enrilo at this race all season and he’s now 6lb lower than when first past the post in 2021. A case of unfinished business maybe. He pulled up in last year’s race but had wind surgery in the summer. He’s not the most reliable betting proposition but he’s hard to keep off the shortlist for all that.
Previous winners at Sandown are 0 winners from 63 runners -63 15 placed since 2008 but I’m still sweet on the chances of Certainly Red. A progressive handicap chaser. He made it 4-7 over fences when winning at Wincanton on his last start over fences. A 7lb rise in the weights demand more from the 9-year-old but Caoilin Quinn taking off a handy 5lb.
Last year’s runner-up Musical Slave looked as good as ever when winning a veterans chase at Exeter two starts back. However, he never got involved in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last time. It’s easy to forgive that run as he’s a better horse going right handed. Indeed, six of seven career wins have come going this way around and his record going right handed between January & May is a healthy 6 wins from 12 runs +14.8 9 placed 75% (+18.90). Like Certainly Red he’s another who must bust that previous course winner trend.
Verdict: I am taking on Kitty’s Light here. I’m a fan of Certainly Red but he does need to bust that previous course winner trend. The same comment applies to last year’s runner-up Musical Slave. Enrilo is high on the shortlist and the money has come in for him the last few days. If the rain has arrived, then Coolvalla becomes a big contender. Revels Hill can win a race like this as is Annsam.
Rest of the Sandown card
1:05 – bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle – 2m
Paul Nicholls has won two of the last three renewals of this race and he’s got three of the 16 runners. The best of his trio could be the Harry Cobden ridden Killaloan who completed the hat trick when winning at Ludlow last month. Up 6lb but probably open to further improvement.
Nicky Henderson has a couple of live contenders in the lightly raced pair Under Control & Iberico Lord. The first named is a filly going the right way who appreciated the return to better ground when winning a valuable mares’ only handicap hurdle at Cheltenham 9-days ago. Provide the ground remains good she’s a big player off 7lb higher. Iberico Lord got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles when winning at Stratford (heavy) 28-days ago. He produced a nice change of gear to win last time and must be of interest on handicap debut especially if the rain has arrived.
Celtic Art a useful flat handicapper, made it 2-3 over hurdles when winning at Wincanton 86-days ago. Likely has been aimed at this race since winning last time and he looks on a workable mark for his handicap hurdle debut.
Verdict: Killaloan is capable of better. Celtic Art is on a workable mark for his handicap hurdle debut and has probably been aimed at this race. The Henderson pair of Iberico Lord and Under Control are respected with the former being of more interest if the rain has arrived to ease the ground
1:40 – bet365 Celebration Chase – 2m
Just the five for the Grade 1 on the card. Recent Aintree Grade 1 Novice Chase winner Jonbon goes into open company and if he does run, he will be tough to beat.
Greaneteen needs respecting in his bid for a race hat trick. Good ground and C&D suits but any further ease in the ground make Jonbon’s claims even stronger.
Captain Guinness posted a career best when a 10 length 2nd of 7 to Energumene in Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham last time. Likely to give his running but needs a couple of these to falter to win.
Editeur Du Gite has already had a good season winning the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton in December and the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham. Not in the same form when a well beaten fourth in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time. Likely to get his own way out in front here though and could bounce back to his best.
Funambule Sivola, fell early in the Champion Chase last time and looks held by Editeur Du Gite on his running behind that one earlier in the season. However, he does like good ground.
Verdict: Jonbon for me but Editeur Du Gite can be tough to pass if he gets an uncontested lead.
2:50 – bet365 Oaksey Chase – 2m 6 ½ f
Seven have been declared for this Grade contest and they include Hewick (also in the Bet365 Gold Cup). The sponsors make him the 5/4 favourite and given he’s 10lb+ in hand of his rivals on official ratings you can see why.
Any rain will help First Flow. A high class chaser two seasons back. He showed he retains plenty of his old ability when a 7 ½ length 3rd of 7 to Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on his seasonal return. Unseated his rider in the Grade 1 in Betfair Ascot Chase last time. Had a light campaign but needs the rain to arrive to win.
Solo gained a second chase success when winning the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase at Kempton last time. He jumped well out in front at Kempton and his rivals won’t want to give him an easy time of it out in front. He needs to improve again to win but this is his second start since wind surgery and he could be capable of doing so. Trainer Paul Nicholls bids for a fourth successive win in the race.
Verdict: Hewick is the class horse of the race and the most likley winner if at his best. Further rain brings First Flow into the mix and its possible that Solo is capable of better.
3:25 – bet365 Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 2m 4f
Hudson De Grugy relished the return to testing ground when winning over C&D last month. That was the 6-year-old’s fourth course success all on soft or heavy ground. A 3lb rise in the weights is workable but he will need the ground to ease significantly to defy it.
The Paul Nicholls trained Cap Du Mathan is sure to be popular with punters given his 2023 form figures are 1122. He doesn’t find as much at the finish as he often promises though and at the prices I can happily look elsewhere. Stablemate Quel Destin was a neck behind Hudson De Grugy over C&D last time and is 2lb better off here. He’s another whose best form has come on softer ground and if the rain arrives, he’s competitively weighted.
Mumbo Jumbo was a respectable 7 length 3rd of 5 to Solo over C&D in November and bounced back from a poor run at Kempton when a back to form 1¾ length 2nd of 6 at Taunton (2m 7 ½ f) 30-days ago. Another who’s best form has come on softer ground and he might need further than 2m 4f. That said he’s capable of winning a race over fences off his present mark.
Harpers Brook looked a progressive handicap chaser over the distance when winning at Bangor in November. He’s since finished last of 5 to The Real Whacker in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham and didn’t stay 3m 1f when pulling up in the Ultima Handicap Chase back their last time. This is more his trip but does have questions to answer after his last two performances.
Gloire D’athon completed a handicap chase hat trick when winning over C&D in December and wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ½ lengths 2nd of 6 at Plumpton last time. The return to a galloping track will suit the 7-year-old and a 75 day lay off should not be an issue as he’s won fresh in the past. Just 3lb higher than for his last win and if gets into a jumping rhythm looks to have a good chance.
Fable, a neck behind Gloire D’athon in December has since gone onto win at Bangor but threw in a poor run at Fontwell last time. Not the most consistent but the mare isn’t weighted out of this if on a going day.
Verdict: Provided the ground stays on the quicker side I want C&D winner Gloire D’athon onside. If the ground turns soft it brings Quel Destin and Hudson De Grugy into calculations.
Leicester
3:05 – Madri Excepcional King Richard III Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
Al Mubhir was a respectable 4 length 5th of 22 to Migration in the Lincoln Handicap on seasonal return and should go well again. However, at around 2/1 he is worth taking on.
Wobwobwob is up in class here, but he was a good 2 ¾ lengths 4th of 14 from a high draw at Redcar (7f) on his seasonal return. A mile does stretch his stamina but if adopting front running tactics could get his own way out in front.
Maysong third in the Spring Mile at Doncaster on his seasonal return, produced a career best when winning at Redcar (1m) 12 days ago. Up 5lb and up in class but not discounted given his present vein of form.
Sir Michael Stoute has a 30% win strike rate with his runners at Leicester and he’s made a tremendous start to the new season. He runs Aerion Power who only ran twice in 2022. Interesting that connections persevere with the lightly raced 5-year-old who has won fresh in the past but has to run on soft ground.
There are no going concerns for Dashing Roger whose best form has come with juice in the ground. He was well beaten on four starts last season so has questions to answer in regard to his well-being. However, he’s a previous C&D and has now dropped down to 11lb below his last winning mark. if he’s ready to roll on his seasonal return, no great record fresh, then he’s too well treated to discount.
Verdict: Soft ground would be an unknown for Aerion Power but he’s interesting one from the inform Sir Michael Stoute yard. No going concerns for Maysong but he’s 5lb higher than when winning last time or for Dashing Roger who is well handicapped if fit enough on his seasonal return.
Haydock
3:45 – Join Racing TV Now Handicap (Class 2) – 7f
A maximum field of 12 runners for what looks a very competitive contest. Indeed you can make a good case for eight of the 12 from a handicapping perspective.
Spycatcher got the well run race he needs when coming from behind when winning at Thirsk on his seasonal return. The bookies have installed him the early bird favourite on the back of that win but it’s worth noting his three career wins have come off a 113+ day layoff.
Rhoscolyn is on a losing run that goes back to June 2021, but he’s been consistent in these types of 7f/1m handicaps and is a previous C&D winner. A reproduction of his short neck 3rd of 11 at Goodwood last August, from 2lb higher would see him go close if ready to roll on his seasonal return. Stablemate Orbaan bounced back to winning ways last summer winning valuable Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood last July but he’s likely to need the run.
Montassib was well out of sorts when well beaten in the Lincoln Handicap on his seasonal return. He didn’t like the heavy ground at Doncaster and better ground should see the 5-year-old in a better light. Might need a strongly run race back down to 7f but both last year’s successes did come over the distance.
Boardman won this race last year and caught my eye when a 9 ¼ length 11th of 22 to Migration in Lincoln last time. He could never get involved after a tardy start and did not get the best of runs 2f out either. He remains 3lb above his last winning mark but there is another handicap to be won with the 7-year-old in the coming weeks. Especially as his form figures in April/May (not on seasonal reappearance) are 1111511.
Biggles ended last season in good form, winning at Newbury (soft) and finishing runner-up at Doncaster. He also started last season with a couple of wins at Kempton. Can go well off a lay off and could be nicely positioned in stall 1 if they don’t go too hard up front.
Gweedore gained a fifth success at Musselburgh when winning on seasonal return three weeks ago. Has a 6lb rise in the handicap to contend with but he should remain competitive when able to dominate which he might well be able to do here from stall 2.
Rainbow Fire less exposed than his 11 rivals, just the six career starts and he 2-2 on turf over 7f when beating 18 rivals at Newbury last September. The 5-year-old shaped well when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 6 to progressive all -weather performer Kingdom Come at Kempton. Unraced on ground worse than good so further rain would be a bit of an unknown.
Verdict: Plenty with claims but there are two I really like. Rainbow Fire is unexposed on turf and 7f is his trip. He’s one to have onside if the ground is good. The other I like is Boardman who will be winning either here or at Chester/York next month over 7f.
Punchstown
The final day of the Punchestown Festival. There are two Grade 1’s on the card but for me more importantly three handicaps.
If you’re thinking of having some bets at Punchestown here are some of my thoughts on the big races.
It’s the final day of the Punchestown Festival. There’s two Grade 1’s on the card. The first of them is the Mares Champion Hurdle (3:40). Love Envoi runner-up to Honeysuckle in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham will be hard to beat here. Especially as she’s likely to get an uncontested lead. Echoes in Rain wasn’t seen to best effect at Cheltenham and provided she’s not ridden to far off the pace will get closer to Love Envoi.
The second Grade 1 is Ballymore Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (5:00). Triumph Hurdle winner Lossiemouth will be tough to beat. Besides Lossiemouth Willie Mullins has the next two in the betting in Triumph Hurdle runner-up Gala Marceau and Zarak The Brave. Lossiemouth is the best juvenile we have seen this season. Her biggest rival might not be one of her stablemates but instead Enjoy The Dream. The filly caused a 33/1 surprise when beating Blood Destiny in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse 19-days ago. However, I don’t think there was any fluke about her success, and she open to further improvement on just her third start over hurdles.
3:10 – Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase – 3m 7f
My Design proved her stamina for an extended 3m 4f when a 3 ¾ length 2nd of 13 in the Ulster National at Downpatrick last time. Up 2lb for her latest effort but she’s a sound jumper of a fence and in the mix here.
Velvet Elvis didn’t seem to enjoy the test provided by the Aintree Grand National fences before pulling up last time. Prior to that the 7-year-old has returned to form winning at Fairyhouse and finishing runner-up at Naas.
Aione got off the mark at the 6th attempt when beating seven rivals in a beginners’ chase at Cork 20-days ago. He seemed to appreciate being ridden more prominently dropped back to 2m 4f last time. Not a guaranteed stayer but if he can build on his Cork performance he won’t be far away.
4:25 – Palmerstown House Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase (Grade B) – 3m
Sam Brown was never travelling and didn’t seem to take to the National fences before taking a heavy fall at the Chair. Hopes are pinned on the application of the first blinkers and a returning to regulation fences seeing the 11-year return to form. The top-weight isn’t handicapped out of this if back to his best and Ben Harvey takes off a handy 5lb.
Must Be Obeyed twice a winner over fences this season here and at Fairyhouse. The mare was on the heels of the leaders when badly hampered by a faller at the 19th and was soon pulled up. If none the worse for that mishap the 7-year-old shouldn’t be far away.
Flegmatik comes into the race fresher than most and although he hasn’t been able to add to his three chase successes on four starts this season, he did post a career best on RPR’s when a neck 2nd of 13 to Our Power in the valuable Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton. If the 8-year-old had met the final two fences better he might well have won that day. If in the same form here and takes to the track, he’d have a big chance.
5:30 – Fitzwilliam Sports Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) – 2m 3f
Willie Mullins looks to have a strong hand here and I like three of his six runners.
Heia returned from a 9 month layoff with a promising 9 ¼ length 7th of 19 in handicap at Fairyhouse (2m 5 ½ f) last time. The mare looks on a good mark and the evidence of her latest run should be suited by today’s slightly shorter distance.
Horantzau D’airy had run to a decent standard in novice company and improved for the step up into handicap company when a 5 ½ length 3rd of 16 to Risk Belle at Fairyhouse (2m ½ f) 21-days ago. Shouldn’t be far away if suited to the step up to 2m 3f.
Risk Belle gained that Fairyhouse handicap in the stewards’ room after she was bumped by the first past the post on the run in. The front two pulled nicely clear of Horantzau D’airy that day and although she’s 6lb worse off with the third here she’s going the right way and can confirm form with her stablemate.
Of the non-Mullins runners two appeal.
An Epic Song bounced back to form from two lesser runs over 2m in no uncertain times when a 2nd of 26 to Langer Dan in Coral Cup at Cheltenham (2m 5f) last time. He’s only had eight starts over hurdles so he’s likely capable of a bit more improvement.
The Very Man down the field in the Coral Cup, is back down to a winnable mark as he showed when a 1¼ length 3rd of 14 to L’yser at Cork 20-days ago. Nudged up 2lb for his latest effort the 9-year-old shouldn’t be far away if on a going day.
Betting Advice:
After a quiet day on Friday, I fancy plenty today and I was going to have a big swing today although It didn’t quite happen.
Sandown
1:05 – Celtic Art – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:15 – Certainly Red – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Coolvalla – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Gloire D’athon – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Leicester
3:05 – Dashing Roger – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Haydock
3:45 – Rainbow Fire – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Punchestown
4:25 – Sam Brown – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:30 – Heia – 1pt win – 15/2 @ William Hill and Risk Belle – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
The Sky Bet Sunday Series returns for the first time this season tomorrow at Musselburgh. It’s a seven race card and all seven races are live on ITV4. I would normally preview and have selections from the meeting. However, as I’m out and about in Ripon today, I’m not sure if I will have the time to do a write up on this occasion. Watch your inboxes for any updates.
Cheers
John