Hi all,
Sangarius got us on the board at Royal Ascot on Thursday and there’s still two-days to turn things around.
It’s the biggest betting day of the week for me.
Friday June 21st – Royal Ascot – Day 4
2:30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) – 6f
Precious Moments should build on her Curragh runner-up placing and could go well here for Aidan O’Brien.
Sheila Lavery, could have another nice filly on her hands with Lil Grey. The daughter of Starspangledbanner showed a nice change of gear to win at the Curragh 14-days ago. More needed in this company but she won’t be disgraced and looks a shade overpriced.
Simon Crisford & Frankie Dettori combined to win the first here on Thursday. They have a lively contender in Last Surprise who overcame experience to win at Lingfield 17-days ago. Different track and surface today but there should be more to come from her.
Verdict: Lil Grey looks overpriced and there should be more progressive to come from Last Surprise.
Lil Grey – 33/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Last Surprise – 8/1 – Gen
3:05 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) – 1m 4f
Japan is the one they all have beat on his third placed effort in the Derby. But he had a hard race that day and he hasn’t had long to recover from it.
Private Secretary got Frankie Dettori out of a bit of trouble at Goodwood. The colt looked to have been set too much to do but he eventually got up in the final few strides. He wasn’t subjected to hard race that day and looks an ideal sort for this race. Rain softened ground would be a slight concern as he really seemed to enjoy the fast ground at Goodwood.
Private Secretary – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
3:40 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) – 6f
It could be a big day for Aidan O’Brien and he saddles favourite Ten Sovereigns who will appreciate the drop back to sprinting.
Jash was runner-up to the favourite in last year’s Middle Park Stakes. He returned to action with a fairly comfortable win over 7f at Newmarket last month. He was keen that day and that run should have taken the freshness out of the colt.
Like the favourite Advertise will be suited by the drop back to 6f after failing to stay the mile in the 2,000 Guineas. The first-time blinkers are an interesting addition and he can go well if he handles the softest ground he’s so far raced on.
Khaadem was a good winner at Newbury 34-days. He looked a high-class 3-year-old sprinter in the making at Newbury and comes into the race with 3 wins from 4 runs. Interesting that retained jockey Jim Crowley opts for Jash over Khaadem.
Jash – 5/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Khaadem – 15/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
4:20 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) – 1m
This looks the race of the meeting. Just the nine runners but you can give six of them a good chance.
Hermosa, comes into the race having won both the English & Irish 1,000 Guineas. The one they all have to beat on form.
Pretty Pollyanna a high-class juvenile was runner-up in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. She should go close again but I think Hermosa should still have her measure.
Castle Lady & Watch Me were first & sixth in the French 1,000 Guineas. The latter didn’t get the clearest of passages when making her effort inside the final furlong and could get closer here.
Happen a stablemate of the favourite is an interesting contender at big price. The daughter of War Front won the last of her three starts as a juvenile and began this season when finishing runner-up to Lady Kaya in a Group 3 two starts back. Before coming from last to win a Group 3 over 7f on the line. She shapes like she will improve for today’s extra furlong and is filly going the right way. Not without an each-way chance.
Another interesting runner who’s been well found in the market is Jubiloso, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Unbeaten on both her two starts, the daughter of Shamardal showed a great turn of speed to easily win at Newbury last month. Open to any amount of improvement and is in the could be anything category.
Happen – 22/1 @ William Hill – each way
Jubiloso – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
5:00 – Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) (Class 2) – 1m
Ralph Beckett & Harry Bentley combined to win yesterday’s Britannia Handicap and they have a good chance of landing this fillies handicap also run over the straight mile with Desirous. She took advantage of a lenient mark on her handicap debut at Goodwood 28-days ago. Up 6lb for that win but she remains open to further progress and remains on a winnable mark.
Hotsy Totsy represents last years winning trainer/jockey combination. She’s won her last two starts and if she stays the mile should go well.
Magnetic Charm made a winning seasonal reappearance when coming from behind to win a York Listed race over a mile. Despite carrying top-weight of 9-7, I think she’s capable of going well and would be a popular winner for her owner H M The Queen. The drier the ground the better for her.
Desirous – 13/2 @ Bet365
Magnetic Charm – 9/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
5:35 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m 4f
Hughie Morrison is 2 winners from 3 runners +21 in this race in the past ten-years. He saddles York eyecatcher Corgi who finished second, over C&D 12-months ago, just a neck behind the Mark Johnston trained Baghdad in the King George V Stakes. Corgi is 3lb better off at the weights but there shouldn’t be much between the pair again. Both are solid contenders, but Baghdad might be the better drawn of the pair if the higher drawn horses dominate again.
Fujaira Prince finished just one place ahead of Corgi when runner-up at York last month. He’s a lightly raced 5-year-old who’s improving with each race and should go close again.
Ben Vrackie, trained by John Gosden, put in a career best when 3rd of 12 in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket on his final start of 2018 and looked the sort to do a lot better as a 4-year-old. First start for 252-days but this race has likely been his target.
Secret Advisor hasn’t run since winning the 1m 6f Melrose Handicap at York 664-days ago. He’s won fresh in the past so I doubt fitness will be an issue. Of more concern would be soft ground, his only poor run came on such going, and stall 1.
Recent Epsom eyecatcher Byron Flyer also takes up his entry. The 8-year-old is vulnerable to any improvers but he’s on a competitive mark. No headgear on either start this year but interestingly trainer Ian Williams opts for the first-time visor today and not the cheekpieces that horse wore last year. The trainer’s record on the flat with handicap runners racing in the first-time visor is 10 winners from 43 runners 23% +65.63 A/E 1.58 18 placed 42%. Likes to be up with the pace but has stall 22 doesn’t make life easy for jockey Mickael Barzalona in that regard. Still he can’t easily be left out of calculations given the use of the first-time headgear.
Corgi – 7/1 @ Coral
Secret Advisor – 16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Recent Eyecatchers Running Elsewhere
Newmarket
5:40 – Takumi
Ayr
7:40 – Anythingtoday
Cheers
John