Hi all,
A poor start to the week so it would be good to get among the winners this afternoon and I’m quietly hopeful that I can.
It’s a third day of ITV4 coverage from Newmarket with the broadcaster covering taking four races live including the Group 3 Craven Stakes (3.35) and the Abernant Stakes (3.00). The broadcaster is also taking the first from Cheltenham where it’s a seven race Mares’ only card.
In today’s preview I have looked at the five races live on ITV4 and today’s betting advice is at the end of the main piece.
Newmarket
1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Class 2) – 6f
The Newmarket action gets underway with a tricky 6f handicap for 3-year-olds only. Pinafore ended last season with a win at Kempton and looks capable of better on handicap debut. Ferrous won a heavy ground maiden at Doncaster on the final day of the flat season and wasn’t disgraced when nose 2nd of 7 at Southwell on his return to action last month. Another open to improvement on handicap debut.
Changing Colours a winner at Haydock last June is having his first start since a gelding operation. On pedigree he should be suited by much further than 6f. However, given the form of the Charlie Appleby yard (won this 2021) he’s one to seriously consider.
Richard Fahey saddled the 2018 winner, and you must respect his representative Installation. A speedily bred colt. He overcame greenness to dead heat for first at Hamilton (5f) in September. Capable of better and despite being 2lb out of the handicap should be in the mix.
2:25 – Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes – 1m
The John & Thady Gosden yard bid for hat trick wins in the race with Enrico Caruso. He’s got to be of interest but it’s a race I can cheerfully leave alone.
3:00 – Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Group 3) – 6f
Creative Force won the 6f handicap on this card two years ago. The 5-year-old has since gone onto win at Group 1 level at the distance and although he failed to win last season was only beaten a neck in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. He goes well fresh the yard is in great form and he’s clearly the one to beat on seasonal return.
Garrus was beaten a short head in last year’s race and will appreciate the drying ground. He’s got 4lb to find with the favourite on Official Ratings and looks Creative Forces biggest rival.
Tiber Flow could do better as a 4-year-old but probably needs 7f in a race like this. Another capable of better is Ehraz. The gelding likely needed the run when 5 ¼ length 3d of 10 to Vadream at Doncaster 19-days ago. A sounder surface will also suit him better than the heavy ground he faced last time.
3:35 – bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) – 1m
Charlie Appleby has won three of the four running of the Craven Stakes with high class colts. Masar won it in 2018 before winning the Derby at Epsom. Master of the Seas was successful in 2021 before finishing short head runner in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas. Twelve months ago, Native Trail won before finishing runner-up in the 2,000 Guineas and then landing the Irish equivalent.
This is clearly a target race for the inform trainer and he has early bird favourite in Mysterious Knight. The son of Dark Angel ended last season with a quick ground Grade 1 win at Woodbine (Canada). Given the yard’s excellent form he’s the one to beat.
The Foxes won a steadily run Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes here last September. That form isn’t very reliable, but he looks worth his place in the line-up.
Indestructible ran subsequent Dewhurst winner Chaldean to ½ length in the Acomb Stakes at York before finishing three lengths behind that one at Doncaster. The soft ground was probably against him that day and he’s not dismissed on first start for trainer Karl Burke.
5:15 – Zabbie was a ½ length 2nd of 10 in a nursery over C&D last September. Up 3lb and more exposed than many of her rivals but she handles the track, and any drying ground will suit the filly. Handicap debutant Havana Blue was a good neck 2nd of 12 at Salisbury last September and ended last season with a solid 3rd of 13 at Doncaster (heavy). He’s shown enough so far to suggest that he can win races and is the pick.
Cheltenham
1:30 – The inform Lone Star, bidding for a five timer after winning at Musselburgh 27-days ago must be respected. As does Dollar Bae who was back to winning ways at Chepstow 32-days ago. She’s up 7lb but is on the upgrade and one to seriously consider. The return to quick ground suited Sashenka who posted a career best on RPR’s when winning over the distance at Newbury last month. Up 4lb in a better race but remains on a competitive mark. Windtothelightning completed a hat trick of hurdle successes when beating 8 rivals at Ayr last month. Back in handicap company here but she’s going the right way and high on the shortlist.
Betting Advice:
Newmarket
1:50 – Ferrous – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Installation – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Garrus – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:35 – Indestructible – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral
5:15 – Havana Blue – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheltenham
1:30 – Sashenka -1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Windtothelightning – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John