Hi all,
It’s Day 2 of Aintree’s Grand National Festival. Another four Grade 1 races for racegoers and those watching on ITV to enjoy this afternoon. There are also three competitive handicaps including the Topham Handicap Chase (4:55) over the National fences. This tends to be my favourite day of the three and the one I tend to have the biggest swing at punting wise.
There didn’t seem to be much soft in the ground on the Mildmay Course on Thursday. The track is forecast to get 10 to 12mm on Friday but if it doesn’t arrive in those volumes, you can probably chuck out the mud lovers from your calculations. I’m sending this out after racing on Thursday, so the weather situation is problematic. I have worked on the assumption that the track gets the forecast amount of rain which could turn out to be well wide of the mark.
I have looked at all seven races on the card and Friday’s Aintree selections/betting advice can be found at the end of today’s preview.
Aintree Grand National Festival – Day 2
1:45 – Air Charter Services Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 1f
Just the six have been declared and it looks between Gerri Colombe and Bronn second and third in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. This sharper track will suit Bronn but I still think Gerri Colombe can confirm form here. Complete Unknown is interesting, as he looked much improved when comfortably winning a Kempton handicap chase (2m 4 ½ f) last time. His stamina for 3m 1f must be improved but I can see him going close if he stays.
Verdict: Gerri Colombe is the one to beat on form but the improving Complete Unknown isn’t discounted.
2:20 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – 2m 4f
A maximum field, as there are for all three handicaps on the card, of 24 have been declared. Camprond is sure to be popular with punters after his ½ length 3rd of 26 to Langer Dan in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival. Now 5lb higher but he’s well suited to big field handicaps and ran well at this meeting in 2021.
No Ordinary Joe was a 1 ½ length 2nd of 21 to the improving Iroko in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s up 4lb for last time but if on a going day should be in the mix once more.
Captain Conby was 11th lengths behind Camprond in the Coral Cup. This more speed favouring track will suit the strong travelling 6-year-old better. I can see him getting closer to Camprond here and is high on the shortlist.
Buddy One was just a nose behind No Ordinary Joe in the Martin Pipe and is open to arguably more improvement than that one. He’s another that’s worthy of serious consideration if in the same form as last time.
The Bosses Oscar wasn’t on a going day when only 15th of 23 in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival. An in and out performer, he’s been given a chance by the handicapper and if he’s on a going day can go close of his present mark. Stablemate Off Your Rocco well beaten on his first two starts this season shaped a little bit better when a 15 ½ length 10th of 26 to Langer Dan in the Coral Cup. If he can take a further step forward, he could get into the money. Yard’s record in the race means both Elliott horses need respecting.
Dargiannini a faller over fences on his seasonal reappearance has since bounced back to his best to win his last two starts over hurdles at Uttoxeter (soft) and Newbury (good to firm). He’s up in class and 7lb higher than last time but had plenty in hand at Newbury and another big run is anticipated from the 8-year-old.
Verdict: Gordon Elliott’s runners in the race are always worth a second look so The Bosses Oscar & Off Your Rocco are worth noting. Dargiannini has been in the form of his life and despite in his rise in class could land the hat trick. Aintree’s flatter rack will suit the strong travelling Captain Conby better than Cheltenham and he’s in the mix.
2:55 – Poundland Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m ½ f
Inthepocket’s, 6 ¼ lengths 4th of 14 to Marine Nationale in Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the best form on offer. A future chaser in the making and softer ground will suit but I think he needs further than 2m and I’m happy to take him on.
Luccia was a disappointing 6/4 favourite when a 4 length 4th of 21 in the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. She’s capable of better than that run but wont appreciate the ground being too soft.
Found A Fifty a winner of a Fairyhouse maiden two starts back was a useful head 2nd of 6 to Corbett’ Cross in a Grade 2 at Naas last time. He’s open to further improvement on just third start over hurdles and not going to Cheltenham looks a plus.
Altobelli looked a smart hurdling prospect when winning a Carlisle novice hurdle by 25 lengths last time. He’s 3-3 under rules and is capable of much better but this is a big test for the 5-year-old.
Hullnback is another going the right way over hurdles after wins at Haydock and Warwick. He bypassed Cheltenham, which could be a positive. He’s worth his place in this company and is capable of more progress. Yet to rain on genuinely soft ground.
No Looking Back won’t be inconvenienced by softer ground. Shaped like he might need further than 2m when a 1 ¼ length 2nd of 6 in a Grade 3 at Naas last month. He’s developed into a smart novice hurdler this season and can’t be discounted if this turns into a test of stamina rather than speed.
Verdict: I want to take on Inthepocket. His Supreme form is the best on offer, but I think he needs further than 2m. Altobelli was very impressive when winning at Carlisle last time and could be very smart. Hullnback is progressive and bypassed Cheltenham which could be a positive. Found A Fifty also missed Cheltenham and he’s just 2lb behind Inthepocket on Official Ratings and is open to further improvement.
3:30 – Marsh Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
Fakir D’oudairies has won this race for the last two seasons and will make a bold bid for the hat trick. The 8-year-old hasn’t been at his best on three starts this season but the cheekpieces go on for the first time and he remains the one to beat. Rather surprisingly he’s not the bookies’ early bird favourite. Pic D’Orhy a winner of his three starts over fences this season before being easily brushed aside by Shishkin in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase, (Fakir D’oudairies 3rd) last time heads the betting. This track will suit him, but I still prefer the Grade 1 winner ahead of him.
French Dynamite a 5 ¾ length 4th of 9 in the Ryanair Chase was a career best from the 8-year-old and he must be considered. Fugitif has finished runner-up in valuable handicap chases at Cheltenham on his last two starts. He’s got a bit to find on Official Ratings with the market leaders but if the rain does arrive to soften up the ground he’s not without a chance. It’s just a shame we haven’t got eight runners.
Verdict: I prefer Fakir D’oudairies to Pic D’Orhy. He hasn’t been at his best this season but has won this race for the last two years. If the rain arrives at the ground is genuinely soft I can see the inform Fugitif running well.
4:05 – Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 2m 5f
Back over the national fences with a maximum field of 30 being declared for the Topham. Apart from the Grand National there’s no more competitive race over the three days of the festival. I had 12 on my short list for the race when I looked after Monday’s final confirmation stage. Rather disappointingly all 12 have stood their ground, which doesn’t make the puzzle any easier to solve.
At the head of the ante post are Ashtown Lad and Gesskille who were separated by 2 ¼ lengths when the pair were first and second in the Becher Chase (3m 2f) over the National fences in December. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights, but the latter may be better suited by today’s drop back in trip.
Al Dancer ended a two year long losing run when winning the Grand Sefton over C&D in November on his seasonal return. He’s not raced since and this has likely been the plan. He was a nose in front of Gesskille in the Grand Sefton and is 2lb better off today. Must be high on the race shortlist.
Demachine is a consistent handicap chaser and solid jumper of a fence. Doesn’t seem to get home over 3m and this looks more his sort of trip. Handicapped to be competitive and the National fences could really suit the 9-year-old.
Numitor is another good jumper who could be suited by this test set by the National fences. Back to form when a 5 ½ length 2nd of 9 to the improving Heltenham at Newbury last time. He’s back down to a winnable mark and is one to seriously consider.
Phoenix Way wasn’t disgraced when a 12 length 5th of 14 at Ascot (3m) last time. He’s better at this trip and he’s now 2lb below his last winning mark. Not sure about the National fences but the first time cheekpieces are applied and if the headgear has the desired effect, he’s handicapped to go close.
Batcio unseated his rider on his seasonal return at Clonmel 24-days ago which isn’t ideal preparation for this, but the 11-year-old really took to the National fences when a 4 ¼ length 2nd of 29 in last year’s race. Now 3lb higher but the 11-year-old looks to have been laid out for another tilt at the race.
Bill Baxter has already had a good season winning three of his last four starts over fences. He been raised 5lb for his latest Kelso win but deserves his place in a better race. He’s as tough as nails and this test should really suit the improving 7-year-old.
Peter Bowen has won the race five times since 2007 including 12 months ago and anything he runs needs more than a second look. He saddles Equus Dancer who returned from an 18 month layoff to win a handicap chase at Hereford in December. He flopped on his next start at Sandown but bounced back to winning ways over hurdles at Uttoxeter last month. Interesting to see 9-year-old come for this race but given his yard must be respected.
Verdict: The front three at the top of the betting Ashtown Lad, Gesskille and Al Dancer are proven over the National fences and look solid. I’m a big fan of Bill Baxter but I think he needs further. Batcio was runner-up 12 months ago and looks to have been trained for this once more. Demachine and Numitor are both going over the National fences for the first time, but I think they will be suited by them.
4:40 – Winners Wear Cavani Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m ½ f
Iroko battled on well to land the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He ran like the step up to 3m would suit last time. Takes a big step up in class here but could be able to handle it. The prospect of soft ground means Paul Nicholls runs Albert Bartlett winner Stay Away Fay. That form is the best on offer, but can the 6-year-old produce a similar level of form after a hard race at Cheltenham. Grey Dawning looked in need of 3m when winning a Grade 2 (2m 5f) at Warwick in February. Very effective on testing ground he missed Cheltenham and looks set for a big run here. Absolute Notions posted a career best on RPR’s when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 8 to Good Land in a Grade 1 (2m 6f) at the Dublin Racing Festival. A step up to 3m could elicit more improvement from the 5-year-old. Lucinda Russell won this in 2021 with Ahoy Senor and had last year’s third which means her runner Apple Away can’t be discounted. The mare is improving with racing and can get into the money.
Verdict: Albert Bartlett winner Stay Away Fay is worth opposing here. Iroko looked in need of further when winning the Martin Pipe. Provided he didn’t have to hard a race there he’s a big player. Absolute Notions is another who could be suited by the step up to 3m. The likable Grey Dawning who missed Cheltenham won’t be inconvenienced if the rain arrives and he should relish the move up to 3m.
5:15 – Abersoch Land And Sea Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) – 2m ½ f
If you need to get out of trouble in the last, then you’re going to need plenty of luck because there are 22 runners declared for a race which is restricted to conditional jockeys and amateur riders. It’s a 10/1 the field race for me so you need compelling reasons to back one under those odds. My list of contenders is a long one and you could back three and still not get one into the places.
Go Dante bounced back to form when winning a handicap hurdle at Wetherby 24-days ago. Up 7lb in a deeper race but the first time cheekpieces are applied and Jamie Codd is an eyecatching jockey booking.
Gaoth Chuil won a 15 runners mares’ only handicap hurdle (2m 4f) at Leopardstown last month. She’s capable of better and not discounted off a much higher mark and down in trip today.
Parramount bids for a hat trick after wins at Doncaster and Fakenham. He’s up 10lb and in a better race but he’s progressive and very much in the mix.
Soul Icon won his five starts over hurdles between May & October. Now 10lb higher than when winning at Cheltenham in October and softer ground to contend with on a return from break.
Densworth bids for the hat trick after wins at Newcastle and Southwell. He’s another that needs respecting on handicap debut although he will face pressure for the lead here.
Glan hasn’t been seen since pulling up at the Listowel Festival in September. Prior to that the mare had finished a 3 ½ length 4th of 20 in the Galway Hurdle. She’s on a fair mark but ground worse than good to soft would be a concern.
Irish challenger Advanced Virgo hasn’t been seen since winning on his stable debut at Cork 386-days ago. That success came off a 111 day layoff so he can go well fresh. A useful hurdler when with Charles Byrnes and he’s not handicapped out of this if returning at his best.
Alberts Back ended a two year long losing run when winning at Wetherby 14-days ago. Remains on a competitive mark after a 4lb rise in weights if getting genuinely soft ground. Pulled up in this race 12 months ago.
Blueking D’Oroux looked much improved when winning a juvenile handicap hurdle at Ascot 12-days ago. A quick turnaround and it’s never easy for a 4-year-old but that age group are 2 from 11 +2.5 in the race since 2009. Can’t be discounted under his 7lb penalty.
Call Of The Wild hasn’t taken to fences on his last two starts but the 6-year-old looked capable of winning a handicap hurdle when a 13 ½ length 3rd of 10 at Ascot on his seasonal return/handicap hurdle debut in October. Useful conditional Caoilin Quinn booked and he’s one to be interested in.
Nibiru won a Down Royal Handicap Hurdle in November and bounced back to form when a 3 ¾ lengths 2nd of 17 to Gaelic Warrior in a valuable Handicap Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Needs a bit more to win off today’s higher mark but not discounted given his shrewd trainer.
Verdict: The booking of Jamie Codd for Go Dante is an eyecatching one. Gaoth Chuil looked good when winning a Mares handicap hurdle at Leopardstown last time. Glan is competitively handicapped but needs better ground. Parramount and Densworth are in great form andworthy of serious consideration. Advanced Virgo has the back class to go close and both he and Nibiru, who ran well behind Gaelic Warrior last time, can’t be discounted Call Of The Wild hasn’t taken to fences but he’s got a good jockey in the saddle for his return to hurdles.
Betting Advice:
Aintree
2:20 – Dargiannini – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Captain Conby – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:55 – Hullnback – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:05 – Gesskille – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Al Dancer – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral and Numitor – 1pt win – 25/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
5:15 – Call Of The Wild – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Nibiru – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John