Hi all,
One of those rare Sunday’s when we have some decent racing this side of the Irish Sea. It wouldn’t be out of place on a weaker Saturday.
There’s day 2 of Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting. The card isn’t of the same quality as yesterday’s but its competitive enough. Ascot provides decent card of late season jumping action. But most of the focus will be on Leopardstown where 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas Trials are the highlight of a seven race card. Jumps fans in Ireland aren’t left out either. Up at Downpatrick the track hosts its most valuable race the Randox sponsored Ulster National (4:00).
Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of Sunday’s action.
Leopardstown
The Irish flat season is a week old and its already starting to hit top gear with Guineas Trials at Leopardstown.
Aidan O’Brien could be set for a big day. He has the likely favourites for both the 1,000 & 2,000 Guineas Trails as well as the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes (3:45).
The Ballysax was won by Harzand in 2016 before that colt went onto success in the Derby at Epsom. Aidan has the front two in the early bird betting in Alexandroupolis and Denmark. The first named is the pick of Ryan Moore and has been backed for the Derby, as short as 9/1 with Paddy Power. The colt made winning debut at Galway in September on soft ground. That maiden had been won by the likes of Kyprios and Sovereign in the past.
Alexandroupolis looked a nice middle distance prospect at Galway and an impressive success will likely see the colt go toward the head of the Derby betting for now.
Denmark like his stablemate Alexandroupolis is a son of Camelot. He beat three rivals at Naas on his racecourse debut last August and ended the season with a short neck 2nd of 16 in a valuable sales race at Longchamp (very soft).
He still looked green last time and was doing his best work at the end of the mile trip.
Bred to appreciate 1m 4f as 3-year-old and looks another useful prospect for connections. Not one to dismiss although Alexandroupolis looks the stable number one.
Guineas Trials
Hans Anderson has the best form coming into the Group 3 Ballylinch Stud “Red Rocks” 2,000 Guineas Trial (2:35) and deserves to head the betting. The son of Frankel is plenty short enough though given he’s not certain to appreciate what could be heavy ground today.
Mind you second favourite Bold Discovery who seemed to handle soft ground in a Group 3 over C&D at the end of the season might prove even better on a sounder surface. Capable of producing better as a 3-year-old and has more scope than the favourite.
In addition to Hans Anderson. Aidan O’Brien also saddles Carracci. Carracci ended last season with a win in a Dundalk maiden. There’s no reason why the colt won’t improve further as a 3-year-old and he should be fine on the ground.
Ballylinch Stud “Priory Belle” 1,000 Guineas Trial Stakes (3:10)
Aidan O’Brien who has won this race three times since 2014 saddles three fillies – Never Ending Story, Dame Kiri & Dower House.
Never Ending Story was a useful juvenile winning a Group 3 over C&D last summer and running respectably on her last two starts in Group 1 company. She’s got the best form on offer but the daughter of Dubawi might be better over a mile+ as a 3-year-old. May be done for speed by Weld filly over 7f but the forecast strong pace will boost her chance.
Dame Kiri got of the mark at the fourth attempt when beating seven rivals in a Naas maiden last October (heavy). Like Tarawa she’s drawn out wide in stall 12 but she looks the type to improve plenty in her second season. Not one to discount given how well she handled heavy ground last time.
Zarinsk made all to win a Listed race over C&D in September (soft). Needs to have improved over the winter but that’s highly possible. She has a handy draw in stall 2 for a front runner but will face pressure for the lead this time.
4:55 – Top weight Comfort Line likely needed the run when 3 ½ length 10th of 27 in the Irish Lincolnshire 8-days ago. He should trip fitter here and a 7lb apprentice take over in the saddle today. Plunkett won a handicap here (7f) last summer from 6lb lower. He also ran like the run was needed when last of 12 at Naas last Sunday. He’s not handicapped of this but will need to have come on plenty in the past week. Karlsberg is a big scopey mare who we might not have seen the best of just yet. Well suited to a galloping track she’s won two of her 12 starts both successes coming in field sizes 16+ and went close on her seasonal return last March. Soft ground suits and if she’s fully tuned up for seasonal return won’t be far away.
5:30 – Wayne R Walker probably needed run when 9 ¼ length 7th of 19 to Razdan at the Curragh 8-days ago. Granted he’s a 16 race maiden which slightly tempers confidence, but the blinkers are applied for the first time and he’s down to mark of 48. I think there’s a handicap in the 4-year-old when all the cards fall right, and it could be today.
Downpatrick
4:00 – Randox Ulster National Handicap Chase – 3m 4 ½ f
My Design has taken well to chasing winning on her debut over fences at Clonmel and improved again when a 7 length 2nd of 6 to Bachasson back at that venue 12-days ago. Stamina to prove but looks on a good mark for her handicap debut.
Wa Wa has taken advantage of a much reduced handicap hurdle mark to win twice at Navan and Leopardstown. Back over fences but comes into the race in great vein of form and this has been the target. Likely to go close if handling much softer ground.
Fakiera was pulled up in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He does look a through stayer though and I like the booking of 5lb conditional Michael O’Sullivan for the 8-year-old. Trainer saddled the winner in 2015 & 2018.
Fiveaftermidnight has to prove that marathon trips suit her, and she needs to jump better than she has done sometimes in the past. Best forgiven her 23 ¼ length 7th of 12 at Navan last month though when badly hampered by a faller on the turn for home.
The Jam Man won the valuable Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan in November 2020 that remains the veterans last success. He showed he retains plenty of enthusiasm when runner-up at Dundalk last month. Not handicapped out of this if returning to something like his best chase form.
I have several that I fancy at Ascot and Doncaster this afternoon.
Ascot
3:00 – Fifteen have been declared for a cracking looking juvenile handicap hurdle. One of my Cheltenham eyecatchers Afadil is in the line-up after his good run in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. His trainer Paul Nicholls has won this race twice since 2016 and he’s 3 winners from 9 runners +10, 4 placed with his Boodles Handicap Hurdle runners on their next start in a handicap. Looks to have a good chance here but that said there are few others to consider from that Cheltenham race.
Bad a winner when trained in France was a big gamble for the Boodles, returned just 5/1, Ultimately he let down his backers but shaped better than his 11 ¾ length 13th of 21 suggests. He ran well for a long way and was only headed coming to the last. He did fold tamely in the run in but was found to have lost a shoe. Likely capable of better.
Mr Freedom came into the Boodles looking one of the more exposed runners. However, the fitting of the first time cheekpieces improved him and given he was hampered after the second last he did well to finish a 4 length 5th of 21. He’s up 1lb for his Cheltenham effort but remains on a competitive mark and the forecast strong pace will suit.
Grappa Nonino is a rare NH runner for Dermot Weld. The 4-year-old got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles in a Navan maiden 29-days ago. He beat 24 rivals at Navan so today’s big field won’t hold any terrors and he should be fine on the forecast good to soft ground although softer would be a worry. Could be well treated on handicap hurdle debut.
5:20 – Gary Moore has a couple of live contenders in previous C&D winners Fifty Ball & Jerrash. The first named looks the better handicapped of the pair but probably needs better ground. Jerrash a winner at Plumpton two starts back (good to soft). That success came over 3m 1f and he looked like needed a good stamina test. Pulled up at Haydock last month but can be forgiven that performance as he was found to be coughing. Drop in trip is a slight concern but provided they good gallop I can see him going close.
Arguably Ivaldi’s best performance came in a C&D novice hurdle last November. He hasn’t really built on that run on three subsequent starts but didn’t run badly when 4th of 12 here over further two starts back. He tends to be keen in his races which means he’s been dropped into the rear on his last two starts. Probably a bit quirky but has the ability to win a race like this and provided he’s not ridden too cold could go close.
Doncaster
3:20 – Gisburn was one place and ½ length behind Hyperfocus at Haydock last autumn and gets 4lb form that one today. He didn’t have the clearest of passages when a 3 length 6th of 19 at York (Hyperfocus 2nd) next time and would have gone close if he had done so. Ended last season when beaten favourite (3/1) at Newbury. Probably not straightforward but has been given a chance by the handicapper and had form in the mud as a 2-year-old.
Bernardo O’Reilly won this 6f handicap 12 months ago off today’s mark and also ran well when a 3 ¼ length 3rd of 24 in Ayr’s Silver Cup. Handles the ground and Billy Loughnane takes off a handy 5lb and plenty to like like albeit he needs a strongly run race and a bit of luck in the run.
Tinto is just 2lb higher than for his win at Ripon last June. Ended last season with a solid 1 ½ length 4th of 12 at Haydock (heavy). Retains handicap scope off his present mark and has gone well fresh in the past.
Hyperfocus ended last season in great form finishing runner-up in big field handicaps at York & Haydock. Another to have gone fresh in the past and can’t be discounted if ready to roll on seasonal return.
3:35 – Flyin’ Solo stays further than 1m 2f and looked set for a good season when 2nd of 16 on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot last May. Not seen after and unproven on heavy ground but he’s lightly raced for a 6-year-old and could be capable of better. Yard has the winner of the Lincoln Handicap with a runner making his seasonal reappearance.
First Officer proved his effectiveness for heavy ground when beaten a nose into second in a C&D handicap last October. Just failed to see out 1m 4f when a 3 length 4th of 21 in the November Handicap. Has run three times on the all-weather over the winter so has fitness on his side and the return to 1m 2f on heavy ground could be ideal for the 4-year-old.
Sir Rumi handled heavy when 3 ¾ length 2nd of 9 here (1m 4f) on his final start last season. May need further than 1m 2f to win off his present mark. A consistent middle distance handicapper
Bad Company relished heavy ground when winning at Epsom (1m 4f) last September. Remained in form on three subsequent starts last autumn and one to be interested in on this sort of ground given his stays further than 1m 2f. Epsom trainer Jim Boyle doesn’t have may runners at Doncaster but he’s 3-4 +10.88 with his runners here in the past five years.
Betting Advice:
Leopardstown
4:55 – Comfort Line – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365
Downpatrick
4:00 – Fakiera – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365
Ascot
3:00 – Afadil – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Mr Freedom – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Bet365
5:20 – Jerrash – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Doncaster
3:20 – Bernardo O’Reilly – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Tinto – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:55 – Bad Company – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Good luck with your Sunday bets.
John