Hi all,
The start of a new month and my first selections since last Saturday. To be honest we didn’t miss much as this week’s racing was moderate to say the least.
A new month and the flat is back for the 2023 season on April Fool’s Day. Sorry jumps fans but today is the day when the real sport begins.
The Doncaster card looks decent, and the big betting race of the day, the Lincoln Handicap and its consolation race should see 20+ runner fields.
It’s just a shame that after such a dry winter that the recent heavy rain means the ground is going to be testing for the start of the new flat season.
There’s racing from two courses on ITV this Saturday. In addition to the first four races from Doncaster there are three races from Kempton’s all-weather card. I have looked at all seven races on ITV this afternoon and Saturday’s selections/betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Doncaster
1:50 – Pertemps Network EBF Brocklesby Stakes (A Novice Stakes) (GBB Race) (IRE Incentive Race) (Class 2) – 5f
Good luck if you’re thinking of having a bet in the race with 18 unraced juveniles set to meet the starter.
All I have to say is that you don’t often see Andrew Balding 2-year-old running in the race. In fact, this could be his first runner in the Brocklesby. Well, he saddles Loaded Gun in this year’s race. The son of first year sire Magna Grecia, who’s already had a juvenile winner in France, is by dam who was a juvenile winner on soft ground and is interesting enough especially for anyone having a go at the ITV7 or the placepot.
2:25 – Pertemps Network Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
There could be a maximum field for the Lincoln consolation race which is in complete contrast to last year when the race only saw eight runners.
Arthur’s Realm is 9lb higher than when winning last year’s race but isn’t discounted on his 1 ½ length 3rd of 16 to Atrium over C&D in September. He made a respectable return to action at Newcastle 15-days ago.
Isla Kai could have handy draw in stall 1. The 5-year-old has dropped down to handy mark after failing to win last season. First start since a solid 3rd of 20 at York last October. However, its worth remembering he was a length 4th of 17 in Newbury’s Spring Cup last April from 7lb higher on his seasonal reappearance.
Baltimore King, trained by Michael Bell, heads the ante post betting. The 4-year-old’s sole start on turf saw him finish 2nd of 11 at Ascot on his final start last season. He’s unexposed on turf, likely to ridden patiently and If the pace is a strong one, could swoop late to take the prize.
Zozimus is interesting on his first start for David O’Meara and the Horse Watchers. We haven’t see the 5-year-old for 512-days but he’s respected on his 3 ¼ length 4th of 26 in the 2021 Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket for his previous yard. If he’s ready to roll after his long absence looks on a workable mark.
Previous course winner Broken Spear goes very well on testing ground and should strip fitter for his return to action at Newcastle over an inadequate 6f 18-days ago. Fifth in last year’s Lincoln. He has the assistance 5lb apprentice Billy Loughnane in the saddle. However, the suspicion is that a mile will stretch his stamina as it did in last year’s Lincoln.
3:00 – Pertemps Network Cammidge Trophy Stakes (Listed Race) – 6f
A decent sized line-up for the 6f Listed contest. Dual Goodwood Stewards Cup winner Commanche Falls was installed the bookies early bird favourite. The 6-year-old was a good 3rd of 13 to Rohaan in a Group 3 at Ascot on his first start in pattern company last October. His form figures when returning from a 180+day layoff are 1112 which puts him high on the shortlist.
El Caballo hasn’t been seen since running no sort of race in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. He probably better judged on his neck success in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last May and should be fine on the ground.
King’s Lynn is a smart performer at his best, won the Group 3 Temple Stakes (5f) at Haydock last May. A previous C&D winner on soft ground he’s gone well off a lay off in the past and can’t be discounted back in Listed company.
Asjad two best RPR’s have come here over 6f & 6 ½ f on soft ground. This is the 5-year-old’s first start out of handicap company, but his overall form entitles him to go well in Listed company on ground that suits.
Ehraz’s very best from last season came on a sound surface but he remains lightly raced compared most of his rivals and he’s having his first start since being gelded. Only a 7 ½ length 9th of 13 to Rohaan at Ascot last October but he was slowly away that day and didn’t get the clearest of runs 1f out either.
Vadream only got her favoured soft ground once last season when a useful 2 length 3rd of 13 in a Group 3 at Chantilly last October. The mare has race fitness on her side and is best forgiven her 3¼ lengths 6th of 8 in a Listed race (7f) at Wolverhampton three weeks ago when racing off the pace in slowly run race.
3:35 – Pertemps Network Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) – 1m
This year’s renewal looks on paper to be one of the best of recent seasons. The forecast pace is likely to be strong and there looks to be pace on both sides of the track, particularly low. We should see a well-run race and there shouldn’t be too many excuses.
William Haggas will be bidding for a Lincoln Double having had the winner of the Irish Lincolnshire last Saturday. The trainer won this in 2010 & 2018 and he saddles Al Mubir and Montassib.
Ante post favourite Al Mubir seemed to relish heavy ground when winning at Haydock on final start last season. He’s open to further improvement and is high on the shortlist. Montassib who should also be suited by the ground looks the type to win a strongly run mile handicap this season off his present mark.
Wanees was ¾ length in front of Montassib when the pair were first and second at Haydock last September. There shouldn’t be much between the pair at the revised weights. Wanees was a progressive 3-year-old last year and looks set for another good season.
Trainer John Quinn saddled Levitate to win the Lincoln (2013) and I think he’s got another potential winner in Empirestateofmind. He’s effective on soft ground and all his five career wins have come over a mile. Even more relevant is his record in big fields handicaps with his form figures in field sizes 16+ being 4122. He ended last season finishing 2nd of 16 over C&D and a 1 length 2nd of 20 to Substantial at York in October. Has a 4lb rise in the weights to contend but useful 5lb apprentice Taylor Fisher (2-5 for the yard) has been booked for the ride.
Atrium ended his 3-year-old campaign looking a progressive handicapper after wins in mile handicaps at Newbury (good) and over C&D (soft). He’s well suited by a strongly run race like he got here last time and looks the sort who can win again this season.
Baradar was a useful juvenile finishing third in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. Seemed to lose his way for his previous two trainers (same ownership). Bounced back to form when winning a 7f handicap here (heavy) last November. Starts the new season off 4lb higher but could be capable of better on ground that suits.
Awaal comfortably won on handicap debut at Redcar (heavy) last October. The 4-year-old has just had the four career starts and although he’s been hiked up 9lb for his Redcar win there could be more to come from him.
Top-weight Migration can’t be ruled out either. The 7-year-old was a progressive handicapper two seasons back and showed he could be competitive of his present mark when a neck 2nd of 17 in Newbury’s Spring Cup on last year’s seasonal reappearance. He stays further than a mile which will be helpful on today’s ground and showed heavy ground held no terrors when winning at Goodwood in the summer of 2021. He’s vulnerable to younger, better treated rivals but has each way claims.
Kempton
Small fields for two of the three races on ITV this afternoon but even those two races are competitive contests.
2:05 – Unibet More Extra Place Races Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m 2f
Seven have been declared for the most valuable race on the Kempton card.
Secret State is the class horse of the race and finished 2nd of 6 in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York last Augusr. Disappointed when only 6th of 7 in an Ascot Listed race (1m 6f) at the end ofn last season but has been gelded since.
Belloccio is well suited to the tapeta surface and made it 3-3 here when winning a Listed race (1m 4f) 122-days ago. Must carry 3lb penalty for that success and drops 2f in distance but not ruled out around here.
Phantom Flight looked ready for the step up into pattern company when comfortably winning a valuable handicap at York’s Ebor Festival. However, he was beaten at odds-on in an Ayr Listed race last September. Ran too bad to be true that day and better expected today.
Foxes Tales returned from a 203 day absence to finish a 3 ½ length 3rd of 8 to Lord North in the Group 3 Winter Derby last month. Did best of those who raced towards the rear that day and this track should suit him better than Lingfield.
Tyrrhenian Sea was one place and ¼ length in front of Foxes Tales in the Winter Derby. In another stride he would have been caught for a second that day. Has form around here though and can’t be dismissed.
2:40 – Try Unibet’s Improved Bet Builder Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Class 3) – 1m
Plenty in with a chance in a race where if you ran out more than 20 times you would get a different result each time.
Naval Commander looked as good as ever when a short head 2nd of 9 over C&D 59-days ago. Has a 4lb rise in the weights to contend with but takes a drop in class here. Looks sure to go well albeit stall 9 could be better.
Million Thanks was another back to his best when a nose 2nd of 9 over C&D 24-days ago. Up 3lb for latest performance but should go close if the same form as last time.
Stately Home returned from a 4 month absence to post a career best on RPR’s when beating 12 rivals over C&D 31-days ago. Now 3lb higher and up a couple of notches in class but should give his running.
William Buick is an eyecatching jockey booking for four time C&D winner Brains. Stall 7 isn’t ideal for a front runner and he’s likely to face pace pressure here. Should give his running once more and a mark of 83 remains workable.
Al Marmar was probably in need of the run when 10th of 11 at Newcastle on his seasonal reappearance 15-days ago. Should strip fitter today and the fitting of the first time cheekpieces and Osin Murphy in the saddle for the first time makes him of interest. Likely on a winnable mark when all the cards fall right.
My Mate Ted has ability but isn’t the most reliable or resolute in a finish in the past. Need a winter gelding operation to have had the desired effect and isn’t handicapped out of it if it has.
3:15 – Unibet Queen’s Prize Handicap (London Stayers’ Series Qualifier) (Class 2) – 2m
Just six have been declared but you can’t rule any of them out, if they’re at their best. There are two previous winners of the race Bandinelli (2022) and Sleeping Lion (2021) in the line-up.
There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of pace and that scenario will suit likely favourite Aztec Empire. The 4-year-old has returned from a 15 month absence in great form, winning both his starts here including a career best when successful over C&D last month. Unexposed as a stayer and a 6lb rise in weight’s might not stop him following up.
Bandinelli hasn’t won since beating eight rivals in this race 12 months ago. Back to form when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 13 in the Final of this series over C&D in December. Just 2lb higher than successful last year and in the mix.
Duty Of Care made it 2-2 over C&D when winning here 24-days ago. Up 5lb in a deeper race but the 5-year-old is an improving stayer who looks capable of better.
Aced It a winner over C&D in January was back to form returned to handicap company when a 3 length 3rd of 10 to Aztec Empire over C&D last time. The winner is progressive, but Aced It gets a handy 6lb pull in the weights and is entitled to get closer.
Sleeping Lion ran better than his 4 ¾ length 6th of 8 to Earl of Tyrone here last time suggests. The 8-year-old was having his first start for ten months and wasn’t suited by the steady gallop. Might not get the race run to suit either but can’t be easily dismissed around here.
Bascule a four time winner on the polytrack he’s run well on his last two starts over C&D, including finishing one place and ¼ length behind Bandinelli in the Series Final in December. Not handicapped out of it but like Sleeping Lion might need a stronger gallop to be seen at his best.
Betting Advice:
2:25 – Isla Kai – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Arthur’s Realm – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365
3:35 – Empirestateofmind – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Bet365, Baradar 1pt win – 11/1 @ Bet365 and Montassib – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Bet365
Kempton
2:40 – Stately Home – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365
3:15 – Duty Of Care – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
There will be more selections on Sunday so watch your inboxes for Sunday’s preview.
Cheers
John