Hi all,
A tough first day at Royal Ascot but recent eyecatcher Buckland Boy saved the day from being a total washout when winning at Thirsk.
It looks an even trickier day than day one. Especially as we don’t know how much rain will hit the course over overnight. Like Tuesday I’m not tipping in every race.
Royal Ascot – Day 2 – Wednesday
2:30 – The Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) – 5f
Liberty Beach has arguably some of the best form on offer after her win at Beverley 11-days ago and trainer John Quinn won last year’s renewal with Signora Cabello at 25/1.
The best of the Irish could be Ickworth who followed up her Dundalk racecourse debut win with success in a Curragh Listed race 44-days ago. She looked a smart speedy juvenile that day but more ease in the ground might blunt that speed.
The trainer with the best record in the race is Wesley Ward with 3 winners from 9 runners 33% +5 5 placed 56% in the race. He saddles Kimari & Anna’s Fast both are contenders although the former looks the trainer’s number one.
Verdict: The Wesley Ward runners could be bankers or blow outs. I think recent Beverley winner Liberty Beach is a bit underestimated in the betting like last year’s winner. Ickworth’s well found in the market but looks a very speedy filly.
Liberty Beach – 28/1 @ Paddy Power – each way (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
3:45 – The Prince of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) – 1m 2f
Could turn out to be the race of the meeting with four serious contenders: Magical, Sea Of Class, Crystal Ocean & Waldgeist.
Magical, has been well placed to win three starts this year. The 4-year-old ended last season with a win in the fillies & Mares here on Champions Day before finishing runner-up to Enable in the Breeders Cup Turf.
Sea Of Class, doesn’t have the benefit of a recent run but the filly progressed all last season was an unlucky second to Enable in the Arc on her final start of 2018. There would be doubts about her participation if the ground gets really soft.
Crystal Ocean, normally gives his running and won the 1m 4f Hardwicke Stakes here 12-months ago. Interesting that connections decided to run the 5-year-old here rather than go for the Hardwicke again. He’s won his both starts this season and seeks his first Group 1 success which is long overdue.
Waldgeist, who finished runner-up in the 2017 Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) had an excellent 2018, winning four of his first five starts, including the Group 1 Grand Prix De Saint-cloud. He was 1 ½ lengths behind Sea Of Class when finish 4th in the Arc. Showed his well-being when wining the 1m 1f Group 1 Ganay on his seasonal reappearance.
Verdict: If the late money comes in for Magical then take heed. Crystal Ocean wouldn’t be winning a Group 1 out of turn although he might not want the ground to get to soft but at least it would bring his stamina into play. Waldgeist looked better than ever when landing the Ganey last time but will need to be even better here if the other three run to form.
Verdict: A race to watch but Magical looks the most likely winner.
4:20 – The Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) – 1m
Straight track form is always useful at Ascot as we saw yesterday with Lord Glitters.
Agrotera won the Sandringham Handicap over C&D 12 months ago and made what looked an improved performance to win a Listed race at Kempton with one of today’s rivals Rawdaa back in third. Best turf form has come on quick ground so far.
I Can Fly, trained by Aidan O’Brien, is another with excellent C&D form. The 4-year-old was beaten just a neck by Roaring Lion in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day. Not at that level so far this season but if the going turns soft a big run can be expected.
Pretty Baby showed she could be effective on soft ground when making all to win a listed race at Lingfield last month. I liked her attitude at the finish as she held off her nearest challengers inside the final furlong. Trainer William Haggas came off the Royal Ascot cold list when winning the last on Tuesday.
Verdict: If the rain arrives, I’m expecting a big run from I Can Fly. Pretty Baby will be hard to pass if she stays the mile.
I Can Fly – 5/1 @ William Hill
Pretty Baby – 9/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
5:00 – The Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) – 1m
New Graduate could be the proverbial Group horse racing in a handicap, and he’s been backed ante-post like he is.
I’m a big fan of the Victoria Cup form over 7f. The consistent Kynren was second in the Victoria Cup and won’t have any problem with the return to a mile. He always seems to run his race in these big field handicaps and can win one when all the cards fall right.
Raising Sand got going to late to finish 4th in the Victoria Cup. The 7-year-old has plenty of straight course form at the track and the softer the ground the more he likes it.
Recent Newmarket eyecatcher Stylehunter was too keen to do himself justice on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket. He’s the sort to be suited by a big field handicap like this, where he can get some cover and come with a late run. A good 6th in last year’s Britannia Handicap showed the straight mile suits the 4-year-old but soft ground would be an unknown.
Verdict: Raising Sandmaybe slightly better over 7f but has run well here over a mile and he really appreciates soft ground. Kynren is drawn low but should give his running and wouldn’t be winning out of turn. If Stylehunter handles the going he could go well.
Kynren – 14/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor – each way (both paying 5 places)
StyleHunter – 18/1 @ William Hill & BetVictor – each way (both paying 5 places)
5:35 – The Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – 5f
A tricky race to conclude Day 2 and probably a race I shouldn’t be tipping in.
Wesley Ward & Aidan O’Brien have trained three of the last ten winners of the race. The former saddles Karak, who gets the first-time blinkers and Foolish Humor who gets the first-time blinkers and tongue tie. Both horses have won their sole career start and like his first race runners they could be anything.
Aidan O’Brien relies on Southern Hills who was considered good enough to run in Listed company on his racecourse debut finishing 5th. He’s since gone on to finish runner-up in Navan maiden 18 days ago. A speedy sort he shouldn’t be underestimated despite being still a maiden.
Richard Fahey saddles three in Dylan De Vega, Summer Sands & Show Me Show Me. I prefer the first two named. Dylan De Vega looked the sort to progress further when at Beverley 44-days ago. Summer Sands overcome a wide draw to win the Brian Yeardley Trophy at Beverley 11-days ago and like his stablemate is going the right way.
Verdict: Who knows how the Wesley Ward runners will go at the track and going. Southern Hills can go well for Aidan 0’Brien. At an each-way price it’s Summer Sands for me.
Summer Sands – 14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power – each way – (both paying 4 places 1/5 odds)
Recent Eyecatchers Running:
Chelmsford
7:40 – Udontdodou –
Ripon
8:20 – Moss Gill –
Cheers
John
Cheers
John