Hi all,
We have reached the final day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival. Once again, I have previewed all seven of this afternoon’s races and today’s selection can be found at the end of the main piece.
Cheltenham Festival – Day 4
We saw a superstar in action on Tuesday in the shape of Constitution Hill. And we could see another in Galopin Des Champs in this afternoon’s Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (3:30). Galopin Des Champs faces 12 rivals but he will be hard to beat if he stays the extended 3m 2f trip.
1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m 1f
The Triumph Hurdle gets the card underway. And if this week’s Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is any guide the British based runners needn’t bother turning up.
Willie Mullins trains seven of the fifteen declared runners. He had the first three home in the Ballymore on Wednesday and if the ante post betting is any guide, he could have the first four here.
Lossiemouth, a winner of her first three starts over hurdles looked unlucky not to make it four when a 2 ½ length 2nd of 8 to her stablemate Gala Marceau in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Despite being keen the Gala Marceau saw the race out very well and it’s no surprise to connections apply the first time hood. Lossiemouth could easily return to winning ways here but I wouldn’t underestimate the other Mullins filly.
Blood Destiny is 2-2 since joining Willie Mullins. He looked a smart juvenile when running out an 18 length winner at Fairyhouse in January. He clocked a good speed figure when winning last time and is capable of even bigger performance if he jumps with more fluency.
Zenta a winner in France made a successful debut for Willie Mullins in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse 20-days ago. Her performance was backed up by the clock and there should be more to come from her but she does need to jump with more fluency in this company.
2:10 – McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle – 2m 1f
I had Filey Bay down as likely winner of the race after his career-best effort when runner-up in last month’s Betfair Hurdle. Softer ground is a bit of an unknown but he remain high on the shortlist.
Gin Coco hasn’t been seen since finishing fine second in Greatwood Hurdle here in November. He’s got solid 2m handicap hurdle form and can win off his present mark.
Willie Mullins is 6 winners from 45 runners +44.25, 14 placed in the race since 2008. He won this 12 month ago with the unexposed State Man and could do so again win with Hunters Yarn. The 6-year-old got off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles at Naas two starts back and followed up in a Listed novice hurdle at Navan last month. Big chance on handicap debut.
The other Mullins runner to interest me is top weight Sharjah. Twice a runner-up in the Champion Hurdle he’s got the back from that makes him well handicapped back in handicap company for just the second time in his career. Has a similar type to Wicklow Brave who won this for the yard in 2015.
Pembroke won at Wetherby and Ludlow at the end of last year and showed he remained in form when a 1 ½ length 2nd of 10 to Rock My Way in a Grade 2 here (2m 4 ½ f) in January. Shouldn’t have a problem with drop back in trip in what should be a strongly run race and trainer Dan Skelton is 3-13 with his runners in the race.
Petit Tonnerre has been in my tracker since his promising reappearance effort at Aintree in October. Has been running over 2m 3f/2m 5f this season but the drop back to 2m 1f, in a strongly run race could see the 5-year-old produce the career best he needs to win this race.
Pinkerton posted a career best when 2nd of 17 in a valuable handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. Not seen at his best in a five runner hurdle at Limerick (2m 4f) over Christmas and a return to a big field handicap can see him in a better light.
Magnor Glory a progressive handicap hurdler last spring/summerwas back to winning form in a 2m handicap hurdle at the Listowel Festival in September. First start for 175-days but he seems best off a break of more concern would be the soft ground given his improved hurdling form last year came on a sound surface. Yard is in form and if he handles underfoot conditions should be capable of better.
Verdict: This looks on the strongest renewals of the race in its history. I have eight strong contenders on my shortlist. Of those at the front of the betting I just prefer Gin Coco on soft ground. Top weight Sharjah can’t be dismissed nor can Pembroke given trainer Dan Skelton’s record in the race. Petit Tonnerre has a big performance in him. Two Irish trained horses Pinkerton and Magnor Glory can also hopefully outrun big odds.
2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m
The Grade 1 Albert Bartlett is the second of today’s three Grade 1 contests. Once again, the Irish dominate the ante post betting with Three Card Brag and Corbetts Cross vying for favouritism. Like the Triumph Hurdle this is another prize which looks to be heading across the Irish Sea.
Three Card Brag made it 2-2 over hurdles when winning at Fairyhouse last time (2m 3 ½ f). Looks a real galloper who should be suited to the step up to 3m on soft ground. It will take a good horse to beat him.
Corbetts Cross has a nice blend of speed and stamina. Had no problem with drop back to 2m when successful in a Grade 2 at Nass 19-days ago. Quick turn around is a slight concern, but he hasn’t reached his class ceiling.
It’s not a two horse race by any means.
Embassy Gardens looked suit by the step up to 2m 3f when getting off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles at Thurles last time. Looks worth his place in the line-up and can’t be discounted with more improvement to come.
Given the form of the Henry De Bromhead yard you can’t rule out Hiddenvalley Lake who won a Grade 3 at Cork (3m) in December and races in the first time tongue tie.
Favori De Champdou, a stablemate of Three Card Brag, has won his last three over hurdles all over 2m 7f. A real staying type, he just seems to get the job done which means he could be capable of an even better performance. The right type for this race but may just lack the class of a Corbetts Cross.
The best of the home team could be Rock My Way. Both his wins have come here the latest when overcoming inexperience to win a Grade 2 (2m 4 ½ f) on Trial’s Day. Today’s three mile trip should be within his stamina range. He needs to improve to beat the likes of Three Card Brag and Corbetts Cross he’s capable of further progress and could get into the money at big odds.
3:30 – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) – 3m 2 ½ f
Galopin Des Champs heads the betting andhe’s the one to beat if staying the distance.
The ground looks to have gone against Bravemansgame. Last year’s impressive winner A Plus Tard hasn’t has the best of preparations. However, the yard has hit form in time at the right time.
The testing ground will being Noble Yeats stamina into play, but I’m not sure he’s got the class to beat Galopin Des Champs and a back to form A Plus Tard.
Galopin Des Champs stablemate Stattler is another who will be suited by testing ground and will be staying on when others have had enough.
Conflated won the Grade 1 Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown last season. And the 9-year-old looked booked for an excellent second when falling at the last in the Ryanair Chase. Stamina for an extended 3m 2f must be proven but he’s got watch way claims.
Ahoy Senor and Sounds Russian were first and second in the Cotswold Chase here on Trial’s Day. The former put it together in the jumping department last time, but his jumping will be tested even more severely here.
Sounds Russian is the more solid jumper of the pair and might well have prevailed last time if his jockey hadn’t have kicked on as early as he did. A place contender on really testing ground.
4:10 – St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase – 3m 2f
No one would begrudge trainer David Christie a win here after Winged Leader went so close to winning this race 12 months ago. He saddles Vaucelet, a winner of a Hunter Chase at Down Royal on Boxing Day. The 8-year-old might well have beaten Billaway in the Champion Hunters Chase at the Punchestown Festival. The return to this trip will suit and he’s the one to beat.
Billaway won this 12 months ago and followed up at Punchestown hasn’t been quite at his best on two starts this season and hopes are pinned on the first time blinkers can do the trick for the 11-year-old. If they do then he can win again.
Chris’s Dream was a high class chaser over regulation fences before seemingly losing his way. Has returned from 304-day absence with two wins in points. At his best he would win this and given the form of the Henry De Bromhead yard the 11-year-old can’t be ruled out.
4:50 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase – 2m 4 ½ f
Allegorie De Vassy and Impervious are two very high class mares. The former was one of the leading novice hurdling mares last season, winning both starts after joining Willie Mullins. Has won both starts since going chasing at Limerick and Thurles. First time going left handed since she joined her present yard and did jump to her right at Thurles last time. That’s the only slight concern about the favourite today but looks a high class chasing prospect otherwise.
Impervious made it 3-3 over fences when beating the boys in a Grade 3 novice chase at Punchestown last time. A smart novice chaser, you could argue her form is as good as Allegorie De Vassy’s and she’s a worthy rival to the favourite.
Magic Daze beat Dinoblue by the same distance that Impervious did earlier in the season and had Elimay even further back in 4th when winning a Mares Listed race at Naas last month. A good jumper of a fence, if she stays the 2m 4f trip, not certain, she has each way claims.
Elimay battled on gamely to win this race 12 months ago. This year’s renewal looks tougher and she hasn’t been anywhere close to her best on two starts this season. The first time blinkers replace the cheekpieces and they could easily see her bounce back to form here. Not ruled given her C&D form but does need the front two underperform if she’s to win the race for a second year running.
5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m 4 ½ f
The concluding race of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival. Three non runners mean were down to just 21 runners. Surprisingly, for me, the five on my shortlist are the first five in the betting.
Spanish Harlem a winner over hurdles when trained in France. Yet to win on three starts since joining Willie Mullins but has placed. The trainer has won this four times since 2014 and the 5-year-old could be capable of more improvement, in a likely strongly run contest, on handicap debut. Michael O’Sullivan booked and a big player but he’s plenty short enough in the betting.
Gordon Elliott saddled the winner in 2017 & 2018and has had plenty of others run well in the race. He runs six and his best two look to be Cool Survivor & Imagine. The first named has progressed with each of his four starts over hurdles and posted a career best on RPR’s when a 4 ½ length 4th of 8 to Good Land in Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. Might prove better over further than 2m 4f but must be respected on handicap debut. Imagine has finished runner-up on his last three starts since winning at Wexford on his hurdle debut in October. No match for Hunters Yarn when a 6 length 2nd of 5 to that win at Navan last month. All the 5-year-old’s run have come over the minimum trip and he’s bred to improve for the step up to 2m 4f on handicap debut.
The Irish have a strong hand in the race but there are a couple of British trainers runners with strong claims.
Iroko returned to action with a win on handicap hurdle debut at Wetherby (good) in November and followed up with an improved effort back at that venue last time. Handled soft ground well enough last time and although he’s 10lb higher in a much better race, he’s open to further improvement and useful Irish conditional Aiden Kelly takes over in the saddle. A big player for the home team and high on my shortlist.
Might I, runner-up in the 2m 4f Aintree Grade 1 on his final start last season. He didn’t stay 3m when a disappointing 8th of 13 in the valuable Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on seasonal return. Bounced back to form back at 2m 1f when a neck 2nd to Hacker Des Places here on Trials Day. No problem with the ground and should be fine back up in trip. If his jumping holds up he can go close in the first-time tongue tie.
Verdict: I could be proved wrong, but I think the winner will come from the first five in the betting. Its hard to ignore Spanish Harlem who could be seen to better effect in a strongly run race. The Elliott pair of Cool Survivor & Imagine are both worthy of consideration for a yard whose runners often go well in the race. I would want one of the home team in my portfolio and the two I like most are the progressive Iroko and Might I.
Betting Advice:
Cheltenham
2:10 – Gin Coco – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes, Pinkerton – 1pt win – 28/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Magnor Glory – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Coral
2:50 – Favori De Champdou – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:10 – Chris’s Dream – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365
5:30 – Iroko – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Imagine – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
Cheers
John
Great Festival John,
Very impressive, will be joining your service asp.
Thanks for an enjoyable four days.
Best regards Richard