Hi all,
There’s racing from three courses on a nine race programme on ITV this afternoon. In today’s main piece I have previewed the best of the action on ITV and today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Kelso
Forecast good to soft ground offers the promise of some competitive racing for Kelso’s most valuable card of the season.
The valuable Morebattle Hurdle provides another example of the old maxim – if you put up the money and you’ll get the entries. The Kelso management and sponsors bet365 will be delighted that a maximum field of 16 have been declared for the race. No doubt one will be pulled out on the day of the race but it’s still an excellent line-up.
The first race on ITV from the track is the bet365 Cyril Alexander Memorial Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (1:15).
The likely short priced favourite Sholokjack has strong claims after his recent Lingfield success. If the ground was softer than good to soft, I would also be interested in previous course winner Bill Baxter. He was travelling like the most likely winner when falling four out at Hereford last time and remains on a good mark. All said and done it’s not race I’m likely to have a bet in.
1:50 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) – 2m
Four or five of the sixteen runners like to be up with the pace so the race should be run at good gallop.
Emmet Mullins brings over juvenile McTigue. He gets a handy 10lb juvenile weight allowance from his older rivals. Its hard to weight up his French form but you must respect him given his connections. Last year’s winner Cormier has run over fences on his last two starts. However, he’s only 2lb higher than 12 months ago and he could well again
Deere Mark made it 2-4 over hurdles when winning on handicap debut at Kempton last month. Looked an improver last time and there should be enough juice in the ground for him. The forecast strong gallop will also suit the 6-year-old.
Colonel Mustard has been chasing the season and the top- weight is back over hurdles and in handicap company for the first time finishing a 3 length 3rd of 26 to State Man in last season’s Country Hurdle. Another who will be suited by the forecast pace.
Teddy Blue was back to form when a 12 length 3rd of 16 in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time. Can pull hard and he’s likely to face plenty of pace pressure. That said Kelso is track where being up with the pace is an advantage.
L’Eau Du Sud twice a winner in France built on the promise of his stable debut for Dan Skelton when a 3 ¼ length 3rd of 14 at Kempton (soft) last time. Good ground would be an unknown, but he looks set to go close.
Wajaaha put in an improved performance when a 5 length 2nd of 18 at Naas on Sunday. It’s a quick turnaround for the Irish challenger but he’s not totally dismissed.
2:25 – bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m 2f
The bookies are taking no chances with the Emmet Mullins trained hurdle debutant Feronily. The 6-year-old runner-up on his bumper debut improved again when a 10 ½ length 3rd of 8 to A Dream To Share in a Grade 2 bumper at the Dublin Racing festival last month. I fancy the winner for the Cheltenham Champion Bumper so the form should be good.
Feronily has been thrown in at the deep end for his hurdles debut against some experienced and improving rivals like Nemean Lion and Colonel Harry. Nemean Lion has improved with each of his three starts over hurdles. The 6-year-old comes into the race with the best form after his 3½ lengths 3rd of 8 to Tahmuras in Grade 1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown last time. Colonel Harry was one place and 2 ½ lengths back in fifth in the Tolworth. He’s since come out to win under a penalty at Newcastle.
3:00 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) – 2m 5f
Santos Blue looks sure to be popular with punters after his decisive Chepstow success last month. He’s now 12lb higher but should make a bold big to complete the hat trick.
Dancewiththewind is another bidding for a hat trick after wins at Wetherby and here (2m) 15-days ago. A 4lb rise in the weights doesn’t look to harsh and he should be there or thereabouts.
Nells Son won the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle on this card last year. Back over hurdles last time, after two runs over fences, and wasn’t disgraced when 7 length 6th of 15 to Hacker des Places at Cheltenham last time. The drop back to 2m didn’t really play to his strengths that day and this test will suit better.
Donny Boy was staying on when brought down at the last in the last years Premier Hurdle won by Nells Son. He probably wouldn’t have won but could have finished in the places. Has had wind surgery since pulling up over fences here in December. Not out of it for a inform yard.
Well Educated completed an autumn hat trick at Carlisle in October. We haven’t seen the 7-year-old since he achieved that success. Up 4lb, in a deeper race but not one to discount.
3:35 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) – 2m 7 ½ f
The race has been fair trial for the Grand National in the past. Both and Ballabriggs and Auroras Encore ran in the race before going onto win at Aintree.
Unfortunately, no Sounds Russian or Ga Law so there’s only the 5 runners and it could be four as Zanza is also entered at Newbury. Still its an interesting enough contest, nonetheless.
Le Milos and The Shunter both have Grand National entries. The former won the Coral Gold Cup in November and looks a worthy enough favourite. However, whether he will be suited by likely slowly run race is another matter.
The Shunter won the Morebattle Hurdle on this day two years ago and remains the most interesting of the five runners………..He could make it a memorable afternoon for Emmet Mullins at Kelso.
Zanza actually heads the official ratings but there must be a good chance that he heads for his alternative engagement in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury.
Empire Steel goes well here with his form figures being 112 including over the distance. However, he hasn’t been at his best on two starts and was very disappointing at Sandown last month. Not out of it, given his form at the track but he’s got 11lb to find with Le Milos and The Shunter on Official Ratings and yard form is a concern.
Wishing And Hoping produced an excellent jumping display to win the Veterans Chase Final at Sandown last time. Likely to get an uncontested lead and if he gets into the sort of jumping rhythm like at Sandown will be tough to pass.
It should be between Le Milos and The Shunter and the latter could be better positioned in a slowly run race. However, I would be too quick to rule out Wishing And Hoping.
Newbury
Just seven have been declared for Newbury’s Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase and leg 2 of the Veterans’ Chase Series (1:40) has attracted just five runners. I’m not sure if trainers are aware that Newbury was able to start watering again March 1st. And I’m sure the Clerk Of the Course has turned the taps on the ground and won’t be as fast as it was for the Betfair Hurdle fixture last month.
The Veterans’ Chase isn’t on ITV and given the five on my shortlist have stood their ground I have left the race alone.
2:10 – BetVictor Non-Runner-No-Bet At Cheltenham Seniors’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m 4 ½ f
Dargiannini made it 3-8 over hurdles when winning at Uttoxeter in January. That was a career best for the 8-year-old. He’s lightly raced for his age and despite an 8lb rise should be competitive under top-weight.
Jay Bee Why was back to form for the fitting of the first time cheekpieces when a 4 ½ length 3rd of 8 to Annual Invictus here (3m) 21-days ago. He’s ground versatile and should be in the mix.
Bold Plan bounced back to form at this time last year, winning this race and completing a hat trick at Cheltenham in April. The 9-year-old hasn’t been at is best on four starts this season but he’s just 1lb above his last winning mark and if the returning cheekpieces have the desired effect, they didn’t before, then he can go close.
Champagne City, a seven time winner over hurdles, ran mostly on the level last year winning at Salisbury in August. Has the back form to be competitive on his return to hurdling and he’s very effective on a sound surface.
There is no doubt that Pileon has become well handicapped. The 9-year-old was a nose 2nd of 11 at Cheltenham (3m) last April off 9lb higher mark for his previous yard. He produced his best performance since joining his present trainer when 6 ½ length 2nd of 4 at Doncaster (3m ½ f). Not sure about the drop back in trip but not dismissed either given his mark.
Whatsupwithyou isn’t the easiest to win with but he returned to winning ways when making all at Uttoxeter in April. Better than on his seasonal return when 5th of 15 at Kempton last time. Better ground isn’t a problem and he’s now 1lb below his last winning mark. One for the shortlist.
2:45 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase – 2m 4f
Given there is £60,000 in guaranteed prize money it’s a disappointing turnout for the Newbury feature. That said you can give all seven a chance.
The highlight of the race could be the clash of Newbury specialists Paint The Dream and Zanzaalthough the latter also has an entry at Kelso.
Paint The Dream won last year’s race and is 3-3 here over fences. No match for Pic D’Orhy when 3rd of 6 in a Grade 2 at Kempton in January. The top-weight is just 4lb higher than when comfortably winning over C&D in November.
Zanza made it 5-6 at Newbury when winning the Grade 2 Denman Chase (2m 7 ½ f) here last month. He’s 15lb higher than when winning last time but should give his running again at a venue he goes so well at.
Paul Nicholls has farmed this race since it was first run – 8 winners from 27 runners +48.83 11 placed and 8 winners from 18 runners +57.83 10 placed with his runners aged six to eight
Paul Nicholls has just one entry in this year’s race Espoir De Guye who will be making his stable debut after a switch from Venetia Williams. You can never dismiss a Nicholls runner here but being 9-year-old puts me off slightly.
Gemirande was a 5 ½ lengths winner at Wetherby last month. In a deeper race today and 6lb higher than last time but the 7-year-old is developing into a consistent handicap chaser who’s not finished out of the first 3 on his last 7 starts.
Lord Baddesley was well backed when getting off the mark at the fourth attempt over fences at Plumpton last month. Has a 7lb rise in the weights, in a better race, to contend with but his jumping was good last time and he’s going the right way.
Sebastopol gained a fourth success over fences when winning a Grade 2 Novices’ Chase over C&D in November. Not been seen since but it was good ground when he won here last time and so the ground won’t hold any terrors for the 9-year-old.
The Big Bite was on a going day when a 2 ¾ length 3rd of 14 in this race two years ago (11lb higher). He was also an excellent 1 length 2nd of 7 to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster last January. Nowhere near his best on two starts this season but good ground suits and he’s well handicapped.
Doncaster
It’s good ground at Doncaster. The field sizes for both races live on ITV are in single figures. The Virgin Bet Cheltenham Festival Money Back Handicap Chase (1:30) has attracted six runners but you can give all six some sort of chance.
Calico gave Jonbon a scare at Warwick last month and likes good ground. Pay The Piper was back to winning ways at Musselburgh and despite a 6lb rise in the weights shouldn’t be far away. Xcitations a winner at Sandown in January shaped like he was still on a competitive mark when 2nd of 6 at Wetherby 17-days ago and shouldn’t be far away once more. Hasankey an improving handicap chaser last season, made an excellent return to action when a head 2nd of 8 at Ayr in October. Hasn’t been at that level of form on three subsequent starts and finished one place and 2 lengths behind Xcitations at Wetherby last time.
3:15 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (3m 2f)
Cooper’s Cross improved for the step up to 3m and the application of the first time cheekpieces when winning the Sky Bet Chase here (3m) last time. There’s a good chance he will stay today’s extra two furlongs and 5lb rise shouldn’t prevent a follow up.
Undersupervison isn’t the most reliable and has struggled on this seasons’ three starts including when hampered and unseating his rider two out in the Sky Bet Chase last time. However, he did get off the mark over fences when winning this race last year, off today’s mark, and tis trip clearly suits the 7-year-old.
Does He Know is the one I like most and even though he has top-weight of 12-00 to carry he’s the class horse of the field. He carried the same weight to success in a handicap chase at Cheltenham in November and wasn’t disgraced on his return from a 3 month absence when an 8 ½ length 3rd of 7 to Zanza in the Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury last month.
Betting Advice:
Kelso
1:50 – Deere Mark – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral and Colonel Mustard – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral
3:00 – Nells Son – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Newbury
2:10 –Bold Plan – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
2:45 – The Big Bite – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Coral
There maybe some selections on Sunday so watch your inboxes for any updated posts.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John