Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I look at the best of Saturday’s action on ITV.
It’s a tricky enough day punting wise and not one I’m getting too heavily involved in
The field sizes for the Graded/Group races on Saturday afternoon have held up better than expected. However, races like Lingfield’s Winter Derby don’t interest me from a betting perspective. As ever I have concentrated on the big handicaps and Saturday’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Kempton
Before looking at the most valuable race of the day the Coral Trophy. I will get the three Grade 2 races on ITV out of the way first.
Scriptwriter will be tough to beat in the Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (1:50) after his recent ¾ length 2nd of 7 in Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time. I expect see a better run from Irish challenger Nusret back on better ground, However, Scriptwriter will be a tough nut to crack
Boothill must give 5lb and more to his four rivals in the Coral Pendil Novices’ Chase (2:25).The step up to an extended 2m 4f shouldn’t inconvenience the 8-year-old. Who has only been beaten by Jonbon and Tommy’s Oscar over fences.
Hansard unbeaten on both his starts since going hurdling heads the betting for the Grade 2 Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (3:40). The 5-year-old looked like a useful prospect when winning at Plumpton last month.
He does face several other promising novices though. None more so than Imperial Bede. Who left behind his hurdle debut run when running out a decisive winner of a Huntingdon maiden hurdle last month. He’s another useful prospect and should go well here.
Trainer Chris Gordon has won this twice in the last three years, so you must respect his runner Kayf Legend. The 5-year-old got off the mark at the second start over hurdles11-days ago but will need to have improved to win a race like this.
3:00 – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – 3m
Annsam wasn’t at his best when pulling up in the race 12 months ago. However, he jumped well when making all to win over C&D last month. Up 7lb but high on the shortlist.
Last year’s winner Cap Du Nord won a valuable 3m handicap chase at Ascot last Saturday. He’s got a 5lb penalty to carry for Saturday’s win but top Irish Conditional takes off a handy 5lb which negates the weight rise. He remains on a competitive mark provided this doesn’t come to quick.
Our Power handicap chase at Ascot in October. We haven’t seen him since and he’s 5lb higher than last time. On the plus side he’s well suited to a sound surface.
Killer Kane took advantage of leniency from the handicapper to gain a second C&D success 15-days ago. Good, good to soft ground suits the 8-year-old and he can go well even under a 5lb penalty.
Clondaw Castle proved his stamina for 3m when winning the 2021 renewal. Two poor runs last season, but he shaped much better on his first start for 14 months when 16 length 2nd of 6 to Pic d’Orhy here last month. He’s another effective on a sound surface and can go well if building on his last time out promise.
Newcastle
Fourteen are set to line-up for the Newcastle feature. Even with the forecast good to soft ground its likely to be a stamina-sapping contest.
3:25 – Vertem Eider Handicap Chase – 4m 1 ½ f
Last year’s renewal was won by the Christian Williams trained mare Win My Wings. And the trainer has this year’s favourite in Kitty’s Light. The better ground will suit the 7-year-old who stays 4m and has dropped to a winnable mark. Despite his claims at 5/2 I’m happy to look elsewhere.
No Cruise Yet is a progressive and consistent handicap chaser. He returned from a 12 week lay off with a good effort when 3 ½ lengths second of 13 to Bretney at Bangor 15-days ago. No issues with the good to soft ground for the 8-year-old. And although he’s 2lb out of the weights, can go well.
Amateur should be better for first start for 7 months at Hereford 26-days ago. He’s just 1lb higher than when winning the West Wales National at Ffos Las last April but this is a better race.
Rath An Iuir was back to winning ways on heavy ground at Kelso last time. He’s 4lb higher now and needs the first time cheekpieces to eke out further improvement.
In Rem an improving handicap hurdler last season has continued to progress going over fences this season. He shaped last time when 3rd of 12 at Chepstow (3m 2f) that a step up to longer distance would suit.
Bavington Bob an improving handicap chaser last season bounced back from a couple of low ley efforts in the autumn when 2nd of 4 at Kelso last month. The first time blinkers are applied which makes him of interest.
You can’t totally dismiss The Galloping Bear either. Beaten when falling four out in the Welsh Grand National last time. He wasn’t at his best that day but he’s on a competitive mark when he bounces back to his best.
Lingfield
Of the two races from Lingfield on ITV one to interest me is the Listed Hever Sprint Stakes (1:30). The Winter Derby (2:05) looks at the mercy of Lord North and I couldn’t find anything to take him on with.
1:30 – Miss Nay Never has improved to win her last three starts on the all-weather. The mare looks worth her place in Listed company but stall ten isn’t ideal given her prominent style of racing.
Exalted Angel was a ¾ length 3rd of 10 here in a Listed race (6f) three weeks ago. Just as effective over the minimum trip and with the first time visor applied must be respected once more.
Look Out Louis a four time winner in 2022, including on the tapeta at Newcastle. He’s got a handy low draw in 3 and he’s won twice over 5f at Chester so going round a bend shouldn’t pose any problems for him. Returns from a 161-day break here but given his good record fresh the 7-year-old can’t be discounted on his polytrack debut. A bit shorter in the betting then I thought he would be but that down to him being a Racing Post Pricewise selection.
Betting Advice:
Kempton
3:00 – Cap Du Nord – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Coral and Annsam – 1pt win – 17/2 @ Bet365
Newcastle
3:25 – No Cruise Yet – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365 & Coral.
Lingfield
1:30 – Look Out Louis – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365
There may be some selections tomorrow so watch your inboxes for any updates.
Cheers
John