Hi all,
The ITV4 cameras are covering four races from Newbury and three from Warwick on Saturday afternoon.
At Newbury the valuable Betfair Hurdle (3:35) is the big betting race of the day. There are also two Grade 2 races on a seven race card. We have the Betfair Denman Chase (2:25) and the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (3:00).
The field sizes at Newbury have held up well considering the likelihood of quick ground with 18 standing their ground in the Betfair Hurdle
It’s good, good to soft in places at Warwick where the Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novice Chase (2:40) is the feature race of a seven race card. Twelve months ago, Edwardstone and Marie’s Rock used this meeting as springboard to success at the Cheltenham Festival. Jonbon and Love Envoi will be hoping to do the same starting today.
Looking at the various cards it’s likely to be a low key day for me on the betting front. As ever today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Warwick
Jonbon faces three rivals the Grade 2 Virgin Bet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (2:40). He’s going to be long odds to maintain his unbeaten record over fences. His biggest rival should be the highly progressive Haddex Des Obeaux who comes rather than the Game Spirit at Newbury.
Love Envoi one of the leading British contenders will also be odds on to win the Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (2:05). Hopefully she will run but she would probably prefer softer ground. Those niggles about the ground mean that her nearest market rival Theatre Glory has to be considered. She might have 10lb to find on OR’s with Love Envoi but she is 4-5 on good ground.
The other race from Warwick on ITV4 is the Virgin Bet Warwick Castle Handicap Chase (1:30). Just five have been declared for this Class 2 contest which is a poor turnout. Stolen Silver is up 4lb for his recent 2nd of 16 to Midnight River at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day but looks the one to beat. He will appreciate the drying ground and seems likely to get an uncontested lead out in front.
Newbury
1:50 – Bridge North hasn’t built on a promising seasonal return at Aintree on two subsequent starts.
Paul Nicholls saddles Barbados Buck’s & Flemenstide and both must be considered. Harry Cobden takes the ride on the former who has finished third on both this season’s starts and will be fine on the drying ground.
Flemenstide has only had four starts over hurdles, winning an Ascot novice hurdle (2m 5 ½ f) last season. He ran poorly on soft ground on his handicap debut at Chepstow over Christmas but is surely better than that. The step up to 3m should suit as should the better ground.
2:25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) – 2m 7 ½ f
Most of the main fancies stand their ground.
Hitman pulled up in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day is the bookies ante post favourite. He must prove he stays 3m and I’m still not sure how he finds in a tight finish
Eldorado Allen hasn’t won since winning this race 12 months ago. However, he’s been racing in contests that he’s had little chance in winning. He finished fourth in the King George VI last time and must have a good chance of winning this for a second year running. Must give Hitman 6lb which won’t be an easy task if the favourite does stay.
Does He Know has only 2lb to find with Hitman on Official Ratings. A good ground winner at Cheltenham over much further when last seen in action in November. Might be vulnerable to speedier types dropped back in trip. However, quick ground will hold no terrors for him twice a winner on good to firm ground.
Kalashnikov needed his first run for 22 months when 6th of 11 in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. He was third in the race two years ago and isn’t without chance.
Zanza has plenty to find on Official Ratings, but he loves Newbury (4-5), has winning form on good ground and can’t be discounted at venue he goes so well at.
3:00 – Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) – 2m ½ f
Odds on favourite Greaneteen faces four rivals. The 9-year-old who was not match for Edwardstone in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown last time but he’s effective on a sound surface and will be tough to beat.
Last year’s winner Funambule Sivola hasn’t been in the same level of form on three starts this year, but this race has likely been the plan.
Malystic bounced back to winning ways at Wetherby over Christmas and followed up at Doncaster on good ground 15-days ago. He made light of 12-0 in a good handicap chase last time and is worthy of his place in Graded company. That said he has 21lb to find with Greaneteen on Official Ratings. Should the favourite underperform, he could be the on to take advantage.
3:35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Premier Handicap) – 2m ½ f
With the exception of Gin Coco most of the leading fancies are set to line-up in what looks competitive but not a stellar renewal of the race.
Irish challenger Filey Bay trained by Emmet Mullins, remains at the head of the betting. The 7-year-old is 9lb higher than when winning at Wincanton in December but even his new mark could underestimate him.
The Paul Nicholls pair of Hacker Des Places and Rubaud are both respected. The former has a 5lb penalty to carry for his win at Cheltenham two weeks ago but should be suited by a strongly run race. The latter won twice at Taunton in the autumn on good ground. However, he was no match for Rare Edition at Kempton over Christmas. A return to sounder surface will suit and he’s of interest on handicap debut.
Monviel got a 10lb rise in the weights for winning an Ascot handicap in November. But he’s lightly raced and capable of more progress over hurdles.
Faivoir has the ability to win a valuable handicap hurdle and I backed him earlier in the week at 50/1. He’s now 20/1 which I’m less keen on taking.
Deere Mark has won his last two at Hereford and Kempton both on soft ground. The latter success came on handicap hurdle debut. He’s been raised 6lb for his latest success. However, he’s the sort to be well suited to a strongly run race and if handles the ground is high on the shortlist.
Willie Mullins does bring over Icare Allen. The 5-year-old was a 5 ½ lengths 3rd of 17 at Fairyhouse on his seasonal return/handicap debut last time. If he can build on that performance, there’s a handicap hurdle in him off around his present mark. Like plenty in the line-up quick ground is an unknown.
Verdict: I go pick seven and not find the winner in an open looking renewal. In the end I settled with a couple of novices in Deere Mark and Rubaud.
Uttoxeter
Besides the Betfair Hurdle the most competitive handicap on Saturday isn’t on ITV or at Newbury or Warwick but at Uttoxeter. The 3m Handicap Chase (2:45) offers only £22,600 in guaranteed prize money but it’s still attracted twelve handicap chasers.
2:45 – deliveringyournetzero.com Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m
Bangers And Cash and Jimmy The Digger both proved their stamina for 3m 4f+ last time. The former won the Lincolnshire National last time and looked like a progressive young staying handicap chaser in the process. Jimmy The Digger a winner at Cheltenham on his seasonal return in October has continued to improve on two subsequent starts since. The 9-year-old posted a career best On RPR’s when a 5 ½ lengths 2nd of 12 to All About Joe in a handicap chase (3m 4f) at Haydock 43-days ago.
Top Irish amateur jockey Derek O’Conner comes over to ride Mister Coffey. Remains a maiden after his six starts over fences but he’s got some high class handicap chase form to his name including when finishing runner-up in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. Good return to action when a 5 length 2nd of 6 at Chepstow in December. He will surely win a handicap chase off his present mark and it could be today.
Guetapan Collonges was steadily progressive over fences last season winning at Wetherby and Market Rasen. And the 7-year-old returned to action with a seasonal reappearance success at Warwick in November. Not quite at his best when a 13 ¼ length 4th of 13 to Iwilldoit in Classic Chase at Warwick 28-days ago. Capable of winning more races over fences.
De Rasher Counter is a previous C&D winner and a former winner of the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury. Showed enough on his first two starts including when a 9 ½ length 2nd of 10 to Ramses De Teillee in a Warwick veterans chase in November. Could never get competitive after a slow start when only 14th of 22 in the Becher Chase at Aintree last time and that run is probably best forgiven. Vulnerable younger legs but could get into the places.
Dublin Four proved his stamina for 3m when a useful 4 ¼ length 3rd of 9 at Doncaster last time. He’s very effective on good ground so drying ground is a positive. Of more concern would be the 9-year-old’s jumping although he did seem to jump better at Doncaster. Capable of winning off his present mark provided he’s not set too much to do from off the pace.
Verdict: I wouldn’t be surprised to see De Rasher Counter roll back the years. Both Bangers And Cash and Jimmy The Digger are improving staying chasers. Mister Coffey has the ability to win this and gain break his maiden tag over fences.
Betting Advice:
Newbury
1:50 – Bridge North – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
2:25 – Does He Know – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Coral
3:35 – Deere Mark – 1pt win -16/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Rubaud – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Uttoxeter
2:45 – Mister Coffey – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes.
I’m not sure there are going to be any selections on Sunday so keep an eye on your inboxes.
Good luck with your Saturday bets.
John