Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I look ahead to the best of the Saturday’s action on ITV.
ITV4 are covering seven races from Warwick and Kempton It’s Warwick’s most valuable meeting of season with the Classic Chase (3.00) the highlight of a seven race card. The most valuable race on the Kempton card is the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2:40). And with twenty declared to run the sponsors will be delighted with the turnout for the race.
This morning I’m reminded of the old saying: ‘let the cold get in’ and the fun will begin. After three weeks or so of mild weather. It’s set to turn colder from Sunday onwards with snow for some parts of the UK. And if anything, it looks like the cold could be with us for some time. That’s not good for racing. So, it may be best to make the most of this weekend’s action as there may not be much of it next week.
I’m excited by Saturday’s action and think I could be in for a good day. Sadly, when I get that feeling it normally goes pear shaped. And I end up scratching my head trying to work out how I got it so wrong.
Let’s hope I’m right about racing but wrong about the weather.
I have plenty of fancies across Britain & Ireland on Saturday. Although several of them are not on races covered by ITV. I begin today’s preview at Warwick and my selections can be found at the end of the main piece.
Warwick
1:50 – eventmasters.co.uk Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (3m)
Just the four for this Grade 2 contest. Gordon Elliott brings over The Goffer but he will do well to beat Galia Des Liteaux and Complete Unknown. The first named so impressive when winning at Bangor on her chase debut. Is better than she was able to show when pulling up in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices Chase at Kempton over Christmas. Paul Nicholls has won this for the last two years and has good chance of the hat trick with Complete Unknown. The 7-year-old made a winning chase debut at Ffos Las last month. Already a better chaser than a hurdler and he’s open to further improvement now stepped up to 3m.
2:25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (2m 5f)
It could be a quick Grade 2 double for Nicholls who has the likely favourite here in Knowsley Road. Unbeaten on both hurdle starts the 6-year-old looked a useful prospect when winning under a penalty last time.
Grey Dawning an easy winner of an Exeter novice last month took advantage of a good mark to win a Kempton handicap on Boxing Day. Like the Nicholls horse he’s capable of further improvement for a yard that saddled the winner in 2015 & 2019.
Ginny’s Destiny could hardly have been more impressive when winning over C&D in November. He’s open to more improvement and not underestimated for a trainer who won this in 2021.
Snake Roll has won two of his three starts over hurdles and is another to consider. As are Givega and Moon Hunter who are both unbeaten over hurdles and open to improvement.
3:00 – Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (3m 5f)
Fourteen have stood their ground for the Warwick feature and it looks like a competitive renewal.
Contenders:
Willie Mullins brings over Mr Incredible and the bookies are taking no chances with the 7-year-old. He was brought down at the 4th in the valuable Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last time. Not sure how well treated he is but he was only 7/1 for that race.
Topweight Threeunderthrufive unseated his rider at the first in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time. On the positive side the 8-year-old does meet all the key race trends I outlined in Wednesday’s preview.
Notachance looks thrownin at the weights on his win in this race 2-years ago. However, he doesn’t look like the horse he once was.
Provided this doesn’t come to quick then Grumpy Charlie is respected. He’s 6lb higher than when winning at Newbury last time but loves the mud and is unexposed over staying trips.
Ben Pauling relies on Nestor Park who is another who is unexposed over staying distances and goes well in the mud.
Lord Du Mesnil ran well on seasonal return when a 4 ¾ length 2nd of 12 to Le Milos at Bangor. The cheekpieces left off that day return. He stays well, goes well in the mud and is now 3lb below his last winning mark.
Iwilldoit hasn’t been seen since winning last season’s Welsh Grand National. He’s 7lb higher but not weighted out of this if ready to roll after his absence.
Guetapan Collonges made it 3-6 over fences when winning here (3m 1 ½ f) on seasonal return. That was a career best by the 7-year-old and he looks worth a try over this longer trip. Should be fine on soft ground and could be capable of better.
I was expecting better from Commodore on his seasonal return, given he’s gone well fresh in the past. The 11-year-old holds no secrets from the handicapper, but he’s not weighted out of this, and this track does suit a bold jumping front runner.
There were some positives to be taken from Grand Mogul’s seasonal return/stable debut and could get into the money at big odds.
3:35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (3m 1f)
The final race on ITV and although its handicap it’s a Pertemps Series qualifier and I have decided to give these races a miss. Consequently, I haven’t even bothered to look at the race.
Kempton
1:30 – Coral Racing Club Handicap Chase (3m)
A disappointing field of just seven for this Class 2 contest. Mind you can make a case for five of them and it remains a tricky enough puzzle. It’s interesting that Bryan Carver comes here to ride Tile Tapper rather than Grumpy Charlie in the Classic Chase at Warwick. Going the right way over fences. The 9-year-old, a winner at Chepstow in February has finished runner-up Exeter and over C&D on his last two starts. Still unexposed at this trip and he’s major contender.
Annsam won a handicap chase at Ascot last season, from 1lb lower and was a credible 6th of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup 49 days ago. The drop back to 3m and a return to going right handed are positives for the 8-year-old who could be hard to peg back if getting an uncontested lead.
Percussion improved for the fitting by cheekpieces/tongue strap last season and has placed in Grand Sefton and Becher Chase on his last two starts. Not sure about really testing ground or the drop back in distance for the 8-year-old. However, he should go well again.
Smarty Wild has started this season with a couple of solid placed efforts in handicap chases at Ascot and over C&D. He finished one place and 1 ¾ lengths behind Tile Tapper last time. Runner up 12 months ago and shouldn’t be far away again.
Enrillo is a useful handicap chaser at his best, but he has failed to complete on 4 of his last 5 starts. He was still travelling well when taking a heavy fall at the 13th in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton on seasonal reappearance. Remains well enough treated if it all clicks today.
2:05 – Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase (2m 4 ½ f)
A disappointing field of just six for a valuable contest. Likely favourite Pic D’Orhy is 1-1 over C&D and made it 5- 12 over fences when winning the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last month. He’s got a 6lb penalty to carry for that success, but it shouldn’t stop him from winning this.
Paint The Dream is actually better off at the weights with the favourite but his very best form has come at Newbury.
We haven’t seen Angels Breath since December 2019. Now with Sam Thomas the 9-year-old was a smart novice chaser (2-2) when last seen in action. Hard to know what ability he retains after a mammoth layoff, but I would think he’ll be fit as he can be.
2:40 – Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2m 5f)
Big field handicap hurdles don’t get better than this. Twenty have been declared for a race with £100,000 in guaranteed prize money.
Charles Byrnes brings over recent Leopardstown winner Green Glory. And the Irish challenger could easily be 10lb ahead of the handicapper despite a big rise in the weights.
Outlaw Peter looks competitively weighted on handicap debut, but very testing ground would be a concern for me.
Scarface gained a second success over hurdles when winning an Ascot novice last time. A mark of 126 looks workable on handicap debut and he’s very much one to consider.
Rathmacknee made it 2-5 over hurdles when winning at Doncaster on handicap hurdle debut last month. Up just 3lb he looks the sort who will relish a well-run big field handicap like this. The testing ground is an unknown, but he’s respected for a yard who knows what’s required to win this.
Petit Tonnerre will appreciate the return to softer ground after a good run at Newbury last time and could be capable of better.
Dubrovnik Harry looked a promising novice hurdler last season winning at Exeter and finishing 3rd of 17 in the competitive EBF Final at Sandown in March. Jumping was rusty on chase debut and he’s back over the smaller obstacles off a fair mark and on ground that will suit.
Hermes Boy has come back to form on his last two starts and he remains unexposed over today’s distance. Looks nicely treated on running with Dubrovnik Harry last season.
Best of the rest
I also have fancies in a couple of races not featured ITV.
Kempton
3:50 – Previous C&Dwinner Fransham was a neck 2nd of 6 at Wetherby on his seasonal return. He hasn’t been at his best back at that venue on his last two starts but he’s been dropped 3lb since the start of the season and trainer Pam Sly had a nice winner at Sandown last Saturday.
Fairyhouse
2:12 – Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade A) (2m 1f)
The feature race on a seven race card at Fairyhouse has attracted a 12 strong line-up and you can make cases for half of them.
Top weight Dunvegan 4-4 at Fairyhouseincluding this race 12 months ago. And the 10-year-old will be sharper for his seasonal reappearance effort in the Grade 1 Tingle Creek at Sandown last month. Now 12lb higher than last year but Michael O’Sullivan takes off a handy 5lb which brings him firmly into the picture.
The bookies are taking no chances with favourite Cayd Boy. The 8-year-old is another who’s done well around here in the past. Just the four starts over fences he was runner-up on his seasonal return at Wexford and did well to finish as close as he did, after making a bad mistake four out, when a 4 ½ length 4th of 11 over C&D last month. Unexposed and looks the one to beat at the weights.
Mt Leinster is reliable enough handicap chaser. He ended last season in good form, winning at Leopardstown and over C&D before finishing runner-up at the Punchestown Festival. Looked as good as ever when 1 ¼ length 3rd of 11, in the race that Cayd Boy ran in, on return to action last month.
Big Debates bids for the hat trick after wins at Cork and here (2m) last time. Hiked up 12lb for his latest win in a much better races makes life tougher. However, a strongly run race suits the 10-year-old and given his current vein of form can’t be discounted.
Epsom Du Houx a winner of handicap chase at Cork on seasonal return last season. Off for 13 months the 9-year-old was no match for Energumene in the Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase at Cork 34 days ago. Should be sharper for his latest run and could well win a decent handicap pot this season.
Andy Dufresne ran too bad to be true when a tailed off last of 7 to Blue Lord in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. However, he had shaped better on seasonal return when a 3 ¾ length 3rd of 4 to Captain Guinness in a Grade 2 at Navan. His best effort in a light campaign last season came when a 3 length 2nd of 16 in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. A serious contender if back to his best.
Betting Advice:
Warwick
3:00 – Lord Du Mesnil – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Bet365, Grumpy Charlie – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral and Commodore – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Bet365
Kempton
2:40 – Rathmacknee – 1pt win – 18/1 @ Bet365 and Hermes Boy – 1pt win – 16/1 @ Bet365
3:50 – Fransham – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
Fairyhouse
2:12 – Dunvegan – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Coral
Cheers
John