Hi all,
Archi did us proud at York. He finished second at odds 14/1 but was arguably he unlucky not to have gone one better. Perfect Tapatino’s win at Cork on Friday evening meant it was profitable day.
On to Saturday’s action and I have selections from York, Sandown & Chester and it’s at the latter track where I start Saturday’s betting preview.
CHESTER
2:40 – Durston impressed when winning at Doncaster on his handicap debut. The handicapper has only put the 3-year-old up 3lb which seems fair to me. The going at Doncaster was good to firm so underfoot conditions will be totally different today, but he does have placed form on good to soft and his half sister Cubanita won in the mud. Of more concern would be his draw in 8. Prefontaine, trained by Roger Varian, gets the first time cheekpieces and is better drawn in stall 4. He’s more exposed than some of the field but should appreciate the drop back to an extended 1m 4 ½ f. Bath eyecatcher Fearless Warrior disappointed at Leicester 26-days ago. He’s surely better than that run, and the trainer’s horses are in better form now. Still the colt needs to find improvement for his first visit to Chester.
Verdict: A tricky little puzzle. Eyecatcher Fearless Warrior needs to bounce back from a poor Leicester run. Prefontaine should be fine with drop back in trip and the cheekpieces could eke out that bit of improvement he needs to win this. If it wasn’t for his wide draw Durston would be a confident pick.
Durston – 9/2 @ William Hill & Bet365
SANDOWN
2:35 – Fantasy Keeper’s claims are obvious he likes soft ground but at odds of 2/1 I can happily let him win. At a bigger price it might be worth chancing Bahamian Sunrise. Granted the 7-year-old has hardly beaten a rival on his four starts this season. But that means he’s tumbled down the weights and is a well handicapped horse if he was to bounce back to form. He’s won on soft ground and the blinkers return. The 7-year-old record over C&D is an eyecatching 2 wins from 4 runs 4 placed. From stall 2 he looks overpriced at 20/1.
Bahamian Sunrise – 14/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill – each way
3:15 – A competitive 12 runner handicap. Eyecatcher History Writer gets on final chance to get his head in front. Didn’t seem to handle the track at Epsom last time and is better judged on close-up third over C&D two starts back. Handles soft ground and his record over C&D is 1 win from 2 starts 2 placed. Trainer David Menuisier is 4 winners from 8 runners 50% +33.70 in the past 14-days. Sawwaah, trained by Owen Burrows, finished a place and a neck ahead of History Writer on soft ground at Newmarket last November. There shouldn’t be much between the pair again but Sawwaah does get the first time cheekpieces and was an encouraging third to Beringer at Newmarket 58-days ago.
History Writer – 8/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Sawwaah – 11/2 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
YORK
2:25 – This looks the hardest puzzle of the day. Two eyecatchers run here Aljady & Saxton. I didn’t except to see either horse run over 7f when I put them in the tracker. Aljady should be fine over the extra furlong and he’s got winning form on soft. Saxton I’m not sure about. In his favour is the rain softened ground and he’s dropping down to winning mark when he does find his form again. Trainer also saddles Hyperfocus who looks a strong contender. Kaeso needs to win this to get into next weeks Royal Hunt Cup. He followed up his excellent third in the Victoria Cup when winning at Chester three weeks ago. Up just 3lb he won’t be far away on this ground if his wide draw isn’t an inconvenience. Karl Burke won this race in 2016 and he saddles recent Haydock runner-up Lord Oberon. The 4-year-old is well suited to rain softened ground and should appreciate the return to 7f.
Verdict: In form Kaeso can go close but his wide draw is a slight concern. Aljady has been well found in the market but is open to more progress. Hyperfocus is up just a 1lb for his Ripon win. He has his ground and his prominent style of running should be suited to the track. Another suited by the underfoot conditions is Lord Oberon.
Lord Oberon – 10/1 @ Bet365 & William Hill
Hyperfocus – 14/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – each way (both paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Aljady – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:00 – William Haggas has his horses in tremendous form and is 1 winner from 1 runner in this race. He runs Raheen House who is having his first run since moving from the Brian Meehan stable. The 5-year-old ticks the boxes marked going and distance and if the stable switch & gelding operation has done the trick looks to have a good chance here.
Raheen House – 6/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
3:35 – Recent Newmarket eyecatcher Blown By Wind makes a quick return after his runner-up effort 7-days ago. Carries top weight but he’s a big strong colt who won’t have any problem carrying it. Ryan Moore booked for the ride although it’s different going to what he faced at Newmarket and he drops back a furlong in distance he did win on heavy as juvenile. Must be high on the shortlist. There are plenty of other contenders. Roger Varian opts for the first-time blinkers for Moraawed and a much better run can be expected from him if he handles the rain softened ground. Recon Mission was only beaten ½ length by Leodis Dream at Chester two starts back. Predictably struggled in the Epsom ‘Dash’ but will be suited by the step up to 6f and a return to his own age group. Could get into the money at a big price.
Kevin Ryan saddles three in Rathbone, Yousini & Secret Venture. The lattercould be the best of his threesome. He’s only had four career starts and is unexposed over 6f. William Haggas saddles handicap debutant and recent Ripon winner Victory Day. Looks on a stiff opening mark but is capable of plenty of improvement. The other Haggas runner is Luxor. Twice a winner over 6f as a juvenile, including good to soft nursery at Newbury on his final start of 2018. Ran poorly on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket last month but the softer ground could well see him run much better here.
Verdict: I think we will see a better performance from Luxor on today’s softer going. Blown By Wind has to be supported after his run at Newmarket last week. The first-time blinkers can help Moraawed go close and Recon Mission & Secret Venture can outrun their odds from their low draws.
Blown By Wind – 12/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Secret Venture – 20/1 @ Bet365 – each way – (paying 4 places ¼ odds)
Eyecatcher Running
Chester
4:55 – Penwortham has dropped to a winnable mark but dropping back a furlong in trip and a wide draw in stall 10 puts me off him today.
Cheers
John