Hi all,
It’s been a tough month and with just two days left it looks like a sixth successive month of profit will be out of reach. Mind you we’ve pulled out of the fire a couple of time already this season so you can’t rule it out even at this late stage.
There’s a short pause for breath on Friday before more Grade 1 action at Newbury on New Year’s Eve and of course racing at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Haydock and Taunton provide the best of today’s action.
I have had a good look at the Haydock card focusing on the five handicaps on the card with an in-depth look the Betfred sponsored Last Fling Handicap Chase.
Today’s betting advice which has selections from both Haydock and Taunton can be found at the end of the main piece.
Haydock
12:30 – One of the lesser handicaps on the card. Trainer Nigel Hawke has his runners in good nick 3-10 in the past 14-days and my tentative pick is his runner Ballymagroarty Boy. The posted a seasonal best this season when 3 ½ length 2nd of 8 at Uttoxeter last time. He’s a previous course winner, stays well and is effective on testing ground. Despite his poor strike rate he’s the pick.
1:00 – Just the three runners for this Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase which is a shade disappointing. Light on numbers but not quality as all three have strong claims.
Crystal Glory jumped soundly when making a winning chase debut at Hexham. He’s open to plenty of improvement in the sphere.
Gold Cup Bailly is a rare runner at the track for Irish trainer Stuart Crawford. He’s won his both starts over fences and jumped particularly well at Ayr last time.
Iron Bridge was very impressive when winning at Carlisle on his chase debut. However, he ran well below form at Chepstow last time. Probably best to forgive that run and best to judge him on his winning debut over fences.
2:00 – Smalley Decorators Handicap Chase (2m 5 ½ f)
The first of two competitive handicap chases. Chinwag twice a winner over fences last season didn’t seem to stay 2m7f on seasonal return at Lingfield last month. The return to shorter and the fitting of the first time cheekpieces make him of interest.
Young Bull, a three time winner over hurdles in late 2019, ran well on his first two starts over fences but was then off the track for 456-days. Two decent efforts on return early this year including when a 7 lengths 4th of 7 to Saint Palais at Uttoxeter in March. Low mileage over fences and the 8-year-old is capable of better in the sphere for a yard whose runners are going well.
Easy As That is a big chasing type who shaped with encouragement in a match on chase debut (2m) at Chepstow. Both his bumper and hurdle wins came on soft/heavy ground and the step up in trip is likely to suit the 7-year-old.
Two more exposed over fences but competitively weighted are Thomas Macdonagh and Maypole Class. The former was a ½ length 2nd of 12 in last year’s race and is 2lb lower this time around. Had a spin over hurdles on his return and should be spot on fitness wise. Maypole Class put altogether in the jumping department when winning at Carlisle in April. He ran better than his 9th of 11 on seasonal return at Exeter last time suggests. As he was still in contention when blundering two out.
2:30 – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Handicap Hurdle (2m 3f)
Stainsby Girl got an enterprising ride from the front when winning a C&D handicap last month. Up 5lb in her bid for the four timer and unlikely to get her own way out in front today with the likes of Romeo Brown in the line-up. The forecast strong pace brings Fine Casting and Esprit Du Large into the mix.
Fine Casting has placed on both starts this season and came in for strong market support (8/15 fav) when a ½ length 3rd of 5 at Doncaster three weeks ago. Both last season’s hurdle successes came on rain softened ground which he seems likely to get for the first time this season.
Esprit Du Large, a former Grade 1 winning novice chaser hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound in recent seasons. Hard to know what to expect from the 8-year-old on his return from a 11 month absence but at least the soft ground will suit, and he’s been given a chance by the handicapper.
3:00 – Betfred Last Fling Handicap Chase (3m 4 ½ f)
This Class 2 contest wouldn’t be out of place on a Saturday card. Twelve are now set to run after Dr Kananga was declared a non-runner but you can still make a decent case for ten of them.
Last time out Carlisle winner Morning Spirit heads the ‘early bird’ betting. It was a well-deserved first success over fences for the 7-year-old who showed a likeable attitude and found plenty on the run in. A 5lb rise isn’t harsh but this is a more competitive race. Hold That Taught was a 11 ½ lengths back in fourth that day. That was his first start for nine months and he does get a 7lb pull with the winner here. However, he does need to jump a lot better than he did at Carlisle if he’s to win a race like this.
Good Boy Bobby was a bit of an eyecatcher when 12 length 4th of 10 here last month. He won the valuable Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby last December and can race off 2lb lower now. Good chance he will stay 3m 4f and goes well on testing ground. No easy task off top weight but high the shortlist.
Danilo D’Airy looked a progressive staying handicap chaser when winning at Ffos Las on his seasonal reappearance last season. Subsequently found to be lame when pulling up in the Eider Chase on his final start. He was well supported before that race (13/2) and isn’t out of this if ready to roll first time.
Conquredalofeurope had useful form in handicap chases over shorter in Ireland last season. And was still in the mix when brought down two out in the Ulster National. That run gives hope this trip will be within his stamina range. Shaped with plenty of promise when a 4 length 2nd of 7 at Wetherby on stable/seasonal debut last time. Despite being 3lb out of the weights looks to have a good chance.
Jimmy The Digger gained a second success over fences in an amateurs riders handicap chase at Cheltenham two starts back. And arguably ran just as well when 3 ¾ length 4th of 10 back their last time. Both chase wins have come on good so softer ground is a bit an unknown. Yard still going well.
Enqarde’s two best RPR’s have come here (3m 1f). However, he didn’t stay over the distance on heavy ground when pulling up in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase in February. Competitively weighted and provided its not to testing could stay the trip.
Samuel Jackson is a staying handicapper well suited to soft ground. A respectable 3rd of 9 at Bangor on his seasonal reappearance last month. This is a hotter race but he’s 2lb below his last winning mark and has a chance.
Deise Aba seems at best at Sandown although was below par there in the London National last time. He’s not handicapped out of this on a going day.
Niceandeasy was still in with a chance when falling two out in the Borders National last time, but this is a better race.
Taunton
There could be up to 10mm of rain at the track on Friday morning. The Taunton highlight is the Listed Byerley Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle but there’s also a competitive 3m handicap hurdle on the card.
2:15 – Byerley Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (2m ½ f)
Eight mares are set to meet the starter for the Taunton feature. The front three in the betting are the ones to concentrate on.
She’s A Saint heads the betting, and the 5-year-old sets a decent standard. A winner at Hexham on her stable debut and she finished a 5 ½ length 2nd of 7 to smart novice Luccia at Newbury last time. That’s strong form and probably entitles her to be favourite here.
Lutinebella a useful bumper performer, finished third in a Grade 2 contest at Aintree, built on the promise of her Warwick hurdle debut when running out an authoritative winner of an Exeter novice last month. She’s got the same official rating as She’s A Saint which puts her very much in the mix.
Credrojava, trained by Harry Fry, has a bit to find with the other two mares, but she’s unbeaten on her two starts under rules. A winner of an Aintree bumper in October she outclassed her six rivals when making all her hurdles debut at Fontwell earlier this month. Open to plenty of improvement and should be suited to going right handed.
2:45 – Farewell Doctor John Heathcock Handicap Hurdle (3m)
Fifteen have been declared for this Class 3 contest. The market is headed by Apple Rock who has returned to action this season in good form. Taking advantage of some leniency from the handicapper to win at Southwell and Leicester. Up 9lb for this latest win might prevent the hat trick but any ease in the ground will suit.
The Changing Man ended last season on a winning note and has improved to win both this season’s starts. Up 9lb for his latest success at Uttoxeter last month but a more strongly run race could bring out a bit more improvement in the 5-year-old so his winning run may not have ended. He did jump a bit to his left last time which would be a slight concern here.
More rain would be a worry for Go Chique. A three time winnerover hurdlesshe posted a career best in defeat last time. Her chances would be enhanced if the ground stays good.
Iberio is one who probably needs the rain to ease the ground. Both his hurdle successes have come here albeit over shorter. He doesn’t have the most pleasing of head carriages but the step up to 3m could see him produce a career best performance and he’s one to consider.
Time To Tinker isn’t one of the stars of the Paul Nicholls yard but the top-weight is more than capable of winning this. Twice a winner here over hurdles he was a 3 ½ length 2nd of 11 in last year’s race and is 4lb lower this time around. A solid enough 7 ½ length 4th of 14 to Abuffalosoldier at Newbury last month should have pit him spot on for this.
Of the rest Invictus Smart an expensive purchase after winning a French juvenile hurdle last autumn, ran no sort of race on his stable debut when a well beaten last of 5 at Market Rasen in March. That run was surely to be bad to be true and he would be of interest if he came in for market support.
Betting Advice:
Haydock
12:30 – Ballymagroarty Boy – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
2:00 – Young Bull – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Bet365 and Thomas Macdonagh – 1pt win – 7/1 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes
3:00 – Danilo D’Airy – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes and Good Boy Bobby – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Taunton
2:45 – Time To Tinker – 1pt win – 9/1 @ Bet365.
Cheers
John