Hi all,
The feast on our dinner tables may be over. But the feast of top class Christmas racing is about to begin.
The focus of today’s column isn’t on Wetherby though but Kempton where it’s King George VI Chase Day.
The King George VI Chase is the highlight of the festive racing. And after the Cheltenham Gold Cup the most prestigious race in the National Hunt calendar. I preview the King George VI Chase inside today’s main piece. Plus, you’ll find my thoughts on the rest of the Kempton card, the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby and Market Rasen’s big race the Lincolnshire National. Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of today’s preview.
Kempton
It’s a seven race card at Kempton and this year includes four Grade 1 races. Plus, the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby.
The first race live on ITV is the Ladbrokes Long Walk Hurdle (12:45). This race was due to be run at Ascot last weekend. However, some quick rescheduling now sees it as part of Kempton’s Boxing Day card.
The going at Kempton is at the time of writing being described as soft. Looking at the forecast the track could get 12mm on Christmas Day but Boxing Day is set to be dry and sunny. If the rain does arrive it’s possible it could be closer to heavy.
It was described as good to soft at Wetherby on Friday. However, there was plenty of rain on Friday and it could be softer by the start of racing on Monday.
12:45 – Ladbrokes Long Walk Hurdle (3m ½ f)
A small but select field. With the race seeing a rematch between Paisley Park and last year’s winner Champ. They pair produced an exciting finish to the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last month, with Champ holding on by a neck.
Champ just heads the ante post betting, but Paisley Park is only third favourite. The latter has been usurped in the betting by the Paul Nicholls trained Miranda. The mare is 2-2 at Kempton but she does have something to find on official ratings and looks plenty short enough to me.
Goshen is at his best going right handed and will appreciate the soft ground. Stamina for 3m to be proved but if the quirky 6-year-old stays he won’t be far away.
Paisley Park can be backed at 4/1 which on the face of it is generous but his relative weakness is due to the sharp nature of the track. The speed favouring track should Champ though, and he would be my selection albeit it’s probably not a race I will be having a bet in.
1:20 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (3m)
Another small field but another interesting contest, nonetheless. Dan Skelton won the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase with Shan Blue in 2020. I fancied Ballygrifincottage for this, but he wasn’t declared, and Skelton relies on the mare Galia Des Liteaux. She impressed when winning at Bangor on her chase debut last month. It was heavy ground that day, so any further easing of the ground is very much a positive for her.
McFabulous is the bookies ante post favourite and he’s a dual winner here over hurdles. A late starter to fences being an 8-year-old. He’s won his last two starts and took advantage of some poor jumping by favourite Thyme Hill to win a Grade 2 at Newbury last time. His stablemate Gelino Bello made it 2-2 over fences when winning a match at Exeter earlier in the month. Cobden has opted for McFabulous it would be unwise to dismiss Gelino Bello who’s an exciting chasing prospect and very much a contender on going that will suit.
Thyme Hill stays over fences, but his jumping lacked conviction last time and he needs the first time cheekpieces to have the desired effect.
1:55 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (2m)
No need for me to look any further than Constitution Hill. Of course, there’s no certainty in jump racing but he’s as close as there is to one.
2:30 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (3m)
First run in 1937. The roll of honour for the King George VI Chase is a veritable ‘Who’s Who’ of steeplechasing. Mill House, Arkle, Pendil, Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid and Kauto Star are just some of the winners of this great race.
I previewed the race in Wednesday’s column. Whilst this year’s race isn’t the strongest in its history it’s still an intriguing one. Nine were left in the race at Friday’s final declaration stage. In addition to the market leaders Bravemansgame, L’Homme Presse. Hitman and Envoi Allan were both declared. As were Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor who come here rather than the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby.
On soft ground it’s L’Homme Presse for me. If it’s good to soft or better than the pendulum swings towards Bravemansgame. I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the claims of Envoi Allen either who has a better win chance than his odds imply.
It’s likely one of the market leaders will underperform on the day. Will Hitman stay a strongly run 3m? I wrote in my race preview that I thought Millers Bank was a sporting bet at 50s to place. I’m sticking with that assertion. Although he likely doesn’t have the class to win. The first time cheekpieces could eke out a bit more improvement and he’ll surely be ridden to pick up the pieces. I can envisage a scenario where he grabs third and I prefer him to place than the likes of Frodon, Royale Pagaille and Ahoy Senor who are much shorter in the betting.
Now two interesting handicaps that aren’t being covered by ITV this afternoon.
3:05 – Ladbrokes Get Your £1 Free Bet Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2m 4 ½ f)
The addition of the Long Walk Hurdle to the Kempton card means this novices handicap chase won’t be on ITV this afternoon, which is a shame. I speculated in Friday’s column as to which of three entries Nicky Henderson would run in the race. Well, he’s gone with Balco Coastal. The 6-year-old didn’t jump very well when 5th of 6 on his chase debut at Newbury but he’s on a decent mark and can win with a decent round of jumping.
Don Alvaro bids for the hat trick after back-to-back successes at Wincanton. He’s already shown he’s a better chaser than a hurdler and his sound jumping will always give him a chance in races like this. More ease in the ground would be a concern though. I prefer him to stablemate Solo although that one won’t be inconvenienced by an easier surface.
Arizona Cardinal relished soft ground when making a winning chase debut at Bangor on seasonal return. Not as good at Uttoxeter last month but he’s better than that and would have each way claims
3:40 – Ladbrokes Fanzone “Your Team Your Game” Handicap Hurdle (2m 5f)
Nicky Henderson has won the last two running’s of this Class 3 contest. The hat trick could well be on as he’s got declared for this year’s race. His two are Theatre Glory & The Bomber Liston. The first named came in for decent support before unseating her rider in the Gerry Feilden handicap hurdle at Newbury last month. Four from six over hurdles and likely capable of better. The Bomber Liston has yet to race this season but he’s another who’s capable of further improvement.
The most likely favourite is Grey Dawning, trained by Dan Skelton. The dual bumper winner built on the promise of his Aintree hurdle debut when beating sixteen rivals at Exeter (2m ½ f) 24-days ago. Bred to appreciate this sort of trip and looks on very workable mark for handicap debut.
Optimise Prime made it 3-9 over hurdles when winning at Lingfield (soft) last month. Up 5lb but he’s going the right way and the more testing ground the better for the 6-year-old.
The 4-year-old Ivaldi won on soft ground on hi sole start in France and hast been disgraced on either start since joining Pau Nicholls. Needs to jump with more fluency than when ½-length 2nd of 3 at Ascot last month but is interesting on handicap debut.
Wetherby
1:35 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (3m)
Twelve have been declared for the Wetherby feature. The ante post betting is headed by the Dan Skelton trained Shan Blue. A previous C&D winner. He looked to have the 2021 Charlie Hall Chase over C&D at his mercy when falling three out. Just two starts since the first in the Ryanair Chase at the festival and then when a 15 length 2nd of 14 to Sam Brown in Grade 3 on handicap debut at Aintree the following month. If reproducing his Charlie Hall running looks well treated off 148.
Into Overdrive produced a career best when winning here (2m 3 ½ f) two starts back and bettered that effort when a length 2nd of 9 to L’homme Presse in Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle (2m 7 ½ f) last time. Nudged up 4lb for his latest performance but remains capable of capable of progress over the larger obstacles.
Kalashnikov returns from a 648-day break but looks fairly treated on the best of his form. Not sure he’ll stay a strongly run 3m as some of his rivals.
Sporting John developed into a very useful staying handicap hurdler last season. However, he was disappointing beaten favourite (7/4) in the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle here on his return to action. He’s just had the four starts over fences and isn’t handicapped out of this on his best novice chase from two seasons back.
Sounds Russian was an improved winner at Kelso on his seasonal return. The 7-year-old improved again when a 4 ½ length 4th of 6 to Noble Yeats in the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase at Aintree earlier this month. Might be better over further than 3m but remains capable of better over the larger obstacles.
The normally consistent Aye Right put in a rare poor effort when pulling up in the Rehearsal Chase last time. Prior to that he can been a respectable 4 ½ length 2nd of 10 to Sounds Russian at Kelso on seasonal return. If you can forgive his lacklustre Newcastle effort, he gets 7lb from Sounds Russian today and would have solid claims if back to his best.
Fanion D’Estruval ran a funny race when a 19 length 7th of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (3m 2f) last time. He jumped poorly in the early stages and was soon detached but did pass beaten rivals in the straight. He ran well here over shorter earlier in the year and can’t be discounted even off top weight. Not the biggest but Lucy Turner takes off a handy 5lb which helps ease his burden.
Market Rasen
2:50 – Chris Liesack Lincolnshire National Handicap Chase (3m 3 ½ f)
Jet Plane didn’t build on his early season promise over hurdles in the second half of last season. However, the 6-year-old left his chase debut run well behind when beating eight rivals at Hereford (3m 1f) last month. The handicapper has had his say raising him 12lb for his Hereford success since but he remains one to take seriously on just his third start over fences.
Bangers And Cash made it 2-5 over fences when running out a 14 length winner of an Exeter Handicap Chase (3m) last month. He’s been raised 9lb for his Exeter win but today’s 3 ½ f longer trip could well bring out more improvement in the 6-year-old and he’s high on the shortlist.
Representing Bob won three of his first four starts over fences last season. Runner-up on both starts this season latterly when a staying 1 length 2nd off 11 at Exeter (good) last month. Looked a hard ride last time and was off the bridle a long way from home. Not surprisingly connections opt for the first time blinkers. A combination of the headgear, today’s longer trip and softer ground can hopefully elicit more improvement from the 6-year-old.
Light Flicker has a good record over fences 5 wins from 17 starts and he won over 3m 3f at Sedgefield at the start of the year. The 10-year-old put in another solid effort when a 2 ¼ length 2nd of 11 over a marathon trip at Exeter 24-days ago. A further 2lb rise in the weight makes life tougher but his guaranteed stamina means he has to be respected.
Betting Advice:
Kempton
3:05 – Balco Coastal – 1pt win – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
3:40 – Optimise Prime -1pt win -14/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power and Ivaldi – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power
Wetherby
1:35 – Sounds Russian – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes & Paddy Power
Market Rasen
2:50 – Bangers And Cash -1pt win 5/1 @ Bet365 and Represnting Bob – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
Cheers
John