Hi all,
Poor day yesterday but your only as good or bad as your last day in this game and we have another day of high-class action to try to get back Saturday’s losses.
The best race in Britain on Sunday is the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase (2:55) at Huntingdon. At Kelso the Scottish Borders National Handicap Chase (1:05) is the highlight of an eight race card at the Scottish track
The very best of the action though is across the Irish Sea where it’s the final day of the Fairyhouse Winter Festival. The highlights of an eight race card are three Grade 1 races: The Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (1.25), the Drinmore Novice Steeplechase (1.55) and the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (2.30). The latter race sees the seasonal return of Champion Hurdler Honeysuckle who will bid for fourth successive win in the race.
Sunday betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Fairyhouse
The Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (1.25)
Champ Kiely won on his hurdle debut at Galway and improved again when running out an impressive winner of a Grade 3 at Tipperary. No issues with the yielding ground and he’s the one to beat.
Marine Nationale is the one I really like, and I think he can beat Champ Kiely. A dual bumper winner. The 5-year-old impressed me when making a winning hurdle debut at Punchestown 53-days ago. I marked him down as a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle contender after that success. Yet to race on going worse than good to soft but should be fine with juice in the ground.
Drinmore Novice Steeplechase (1.55)
Eleven have been declared for what looks a very deep Grade 1 novice chase and the best we have seen either side of the Irish Sea so far this season.
Banbridge has won both his starts over fences and looked good when winning at Cheltenham last month. The step up to 2m 4f should be ideal and provided the ground isn’t too testing he’s the one to bet.
However, he faces some serious rivals. The Gordon Elliott pair Three Stripe Life & Mighty Potter both won Grade 1’s over hurdles last season and made winning debuts over fences last time.
Thedevilscoachman is another open to further progress over the larger obstacles but may prefer softer ground than seems likely. His trainer Noel Meade won this last year. If rain did arrive, he can go well.
Enniskerry won his first two starts over fences at Galway and Grade 3 at Roscommon 69-days ago and can’t be dismissed.
Willie Mullins saddles five including the experienced Gaillard Du Mesnil, who was a 5 length 3rd of 9 to L’Homme Presse in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
It’s not a race I will be getting involved in as there are too many runners who look capable of improvement over the larger obstacles.
Hatton’s Grace Hurdle (2.30)
Champion Hurdler Honeysuckle bids to win the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle for a fourth successive year. If returning at her best she’s clearly the one to beat. He biggest rival should be the Willie Mullins trained Klassical Dream and he is formidable rival at his best. A six time Grade 1 winner during his career he might be better over 3m but 2m 4f is fine and he’s 3-4 when returning from a 121-day + layoff. There will be plenty of disappointed racegoers if Honeysuckle can’t win this again, but this looks the strongest field she has faced in the race.
There are a couple of handicaps on the Fairyhouse card opportunities from a betting perspective.
Bar One Racing Porterstown Handicap Chase (12:55)
Lord Lariat was a surprise winner the Irish Grand National over C&D in April. He looked in need of the run when 4th of 5 to Galvin in Grade 3 at Punchestown in October. Has to be respected back over C&D.
Braeside had looked a useful staying handicap chaser last autumn, but he’s struggled this year and never really got competitive before pulling up in the Cork Grand National on his seasonal reappearance. He would have a big chance if he was to bounce back to last season’s best. His stablemate Punitive could prove the stronger of the pair. The 8-year-old posted a career best when 1 ¾ lengths 2nd of 10 to Anightinlambourn in an amateur rider’s handicap chase at Cheltenham last month. He unseated his rider at the 5th in the Troytown last Sunday but provided confidence hasn’t been affected shouldn’t be far away.
Regina Dracones made it 3-6 over fences when winning a 3m 1f novice chase here in January and then ran a cracker when a 4 ¼ length 2nd of 11 to stablemate Velvet Elvis in a valuable novice’s handicap chase at Navan. Still very much in contention when jumping badly left and slipping on landing three out at Punchestown (3m 7f) back in April. Fell at the second in the Troytown last week on seasonal return.
Western Zara won here over hurdles (3m) in January and shaped with plenty of encouragement on two starts over fences in the spring winning a beginners chase at Clonmel before finishing 5 length 2nd of 12 in valuable mares only handicap chase (2m 5f) at the Punchestown Festival. Shapes like she will stay well over fences. Her yard among the winners and she’s got to be high on the shortlist.
BARONERACING.COM Handicap Hurdle (Grade A) (3:05)
You can make a case for plenty of the nineteen runners. Icare Allen who won a small field Grade 3 Juvenile hurdle over C&D in February before finishing 4th of 12 in the Triumph Hurdle, heads the betting on his handicap hurdle debut. He does face several promising type though.
Pinkerton was an excellent head 3rd of 11 in handicap hurdle at Down Royal 29 days ago. A mistake at the last when just in front probably cost him victory in a close finish. He’s open to more improvement.
Watch The Weather has already had a good season with 2 wins from 6 starts. He finished a short-head runner-up in the handicap hurdle (Pinkerton third) at Down Royal last time. Up 3lb bit remains competitively weighted.
Merlin Giant is another progressive hurdler. The 5-year-old, 1 from 3 runs this season shaped with plenty of encouragement on his return from 3 month break when 4th of 16 in handicap hurdle 36 days ago. He takes a big drop in trip here but a strongly run race will suit and he could be well handicapped.
Lucky Max was back to his best when a ¾ length 3rd of 18 in handicap hurdle at Naas (2m 4f) 22 days ago. Not sure about the drop back to 2m but he should be capable of another good performance.
Man O Work 2-6 over hurdles and is useful on his day. The 4-year-old posted a career best on RPR’s on his latest start over hurdles when a 6 ½ length 2nd of 14 at the Listowel Festival in September. Another likely capable of better and the forecast strong pace should suit.
Huntingdon
Fitzdares Peterborough Chase (2:55)
Just the seven runners for this Garde 2 contest run over 2m 4f. Fast Flow won this on seasonal reappearance 12 months ago and looks to have been targeted at it once more. His claims are clear for all to see.
Pic D’Orhy jumped well when winning on seasonal return at Newton Abbot in October and must be respected on ground that suits.
Allmankind won the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last season, and a reproduction of that performance would see him go close here. However, he was only 4th of 5 in last year’s race.
Millers Bank a Grade 1 novice chase winner at Aintree in April, didn’t get past the first in this season’s Old Roan Chase but ran much better when a ½ length 2nd of 7 in the Colin Parker Intermediate Chase at Carlisle. He was trying to give 12lb to the winner that day, which was always going to be a tough ask. This has always been the plan for this previous C&D winner.
Mister Fisher normally runs his race in small field graded races. A four time Grade 2 winner and like First Flow has a penalty to carry for beating Eldorado Allen in the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton in January. He won this in 2020 (run at Cheltenham) and if his jumping holds up, he won’t be far away in the first time cheekpieces.
Kelso
Scottish Borders National Handicap Chase (1:05)
It’s not the classiest renewal of this marathon contest but remains one I like to have a good go at.
Last year’s winner Big River loves it around Kelso and although he is 6lb higher this time around you can never rule him out at his favourite venue.
The Ferry Master is on a losing run that goes back two years but a reproduction of his 7 ½ length 4th of 22 in last year’s Scottish Grand National would see the 9-year-old go close. Now 10lb lower, he’s respected if staying the four mile trip. Trainer Sandy Thomson who won this four times between 2014 & 2018 also saddles Donna’s Delight & Flower Of Scotland. The latter takes the eye and was a respectable 1 ¾ length 3rd of 9 at Carlisle on seasonal return and back over fences and has to be considered given her light weight.
Niceandeasy finished two places and 3 ½ lengths behind Flower Of Scotland at Carlisle. He ran like the race was needed and he’s been dropped 1lb. He’s another very much in the mix and given he’s only had five starts over fences.
All About Joe relished the step up to 3m 5f when winning the Durham National at Sedgefield last time. He’s 5lb higher here but is going the right way and is another in the mix.
Cash To The Ash was a 2 ¾ length runner-up to Big River in last year’s race. He’s 4lb better off this time around and there was plenty to like about his reappearance effort 2nd of 10 at Wetherby. Granted he doesn’t find winning easy but he’s consistent enough and has a big chance.
Betting Advice:
Fairyhouse
12:55 – Punitive – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 and Western Zara – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Coral
2:30 – Klassical Dream – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral
3:05 – Pinkerton – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Bet365 & Coral and Watch The Weather – 1pt win – 14/1 Bet365
Huntingdon
2:55 – Mister Fisher – 1pt win – 15/2 (not BOG)
Kelso
1:05 – Cash To The Ash – 1pt win – 15/2 @Bet365 and The Ferry Master – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Coral
I’m not expecting to put up many selections until Cheltenham on Friday but there may be the odd one so watch your inboxes.
Cheers
John