Hi all,
After last week’s Coral Gold Cup, we have another winter highlight at Sandown on Saturday. This time it’s the turn of the Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (2.55). The Sandown card also features the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (1.45).
The BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase (2.05) over the National fences is the highlight of a seven race card at Aintree which also includes the Grade 2 Boylesports Many Clouds Chase (1:30).
It’s day one of the Fairyhouse Winter Festival. Although the best of the races of the two day meeting are on the Sunday card there is decent looking 12 runners Grade B Handicap Chase (12:42) on a eight race card which gets underway at 11:35.
ITV4 are covering four races from Sandown & Aintree as part of an eight race programme.
Inside today’s preview and its a long one I look at the best of the action from Sandown and Aintree and my betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
It’s going to be nervous wait on Saturday morning to see if Sandown Clerk of the Course has put down enough water to enable some of the big names to line-up in the day’s Garde 1 contests. My hunch is that Cooper who has previous for ensuring good ground even on the flat will have watered sufficiently to allow the likes of Shishkin and Edwardstone to run. And looking at the races on the chase course yesterday there shouldn’t be any reason why you wouldn’t run your horse as there didn’t seem to be much good in the ground.
Sandown
Tingle Creek Chase (2:55)
It’s Tingle Creek Day at Sandown. The Grade 1 two mile chase is the Champion Chase apart the best race of its type run either side of the Irish Sea during the winter season. The roll of honour includes some of the sport’s biggest names. And if the main protagonists do run this afternoon it’s going to be a cracker despite the small field.
If Shishkin is at his best, he’s the class horse of the race and wins. Mind you to take a bit on trust his well-being and there’s also the nagging doubt that he may now need further than 2m. At around 11/10 I can let him win. At 2/1 he would be a bet.
After Greaneteen’s all the way win the Haldon Gold Cup on seasonal return I was sweet on his chance. And if the ground is better than good to soft, he will be hard to peg back in his back- to-back wins in the race. Earlier the week I had thought 5/2 might tempt me in and it could still do so.
I’m not convinced that last year’s 2m novice chasers are that good. So, I can see why Edwardstone has drifted out to 6/1. I would be delighted if he did take a big step forward on his second season chasing but I’m not convinced he will.
Rest of the Sandown card
Not live on ITV but the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (1:10) see’s Bridge North back in action for the first time since an encouraging 5th of 11 at Aintree 41-days ago. He’s on competitive mark and I have been waiting to see the 6-year-old run over 3m.
Jonbon will be long odds on to win the Grade 1 Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices’ Chase. His nearest market rival Boothill is a progressive novice chaser who I like and hopefully he give the favourite a race> However, I don’t think he can win unless Jonbon fails to complete.
Betfair Daily Rewards Handicap Hurdle (2:20)
Ten have been declared for this 2m Class 2 handicap hurdle. Homme Public ended last season with a win at Newcastle and looking a progressive 2m handicap hurdler in the process. The 5-year-old picked up where he had left off with an improved performance when winning at Wetherby last month. Up 7lb and up in class but looks capable of handling it if the ground isn’t too testing.
Martator, a Grade 1 placed hurdler when trained in France returns from a 384-day lay off and is having his first start for Venetia Williams. His best French form has come over further and on more testing ground, but he could go well off his present mark if ready to roll first time.
Love Envoi was in excellent form last season winning a Grade 2 Listed Mares Hurdle here in February (2m 4f). Before going on to win the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. And only lost her unbeaten record when finishing runner-up in a Mares Grade 1 Hurdle at Fairyhouse in April. She’s well suited by soft ground and should go close if she’s fit enough on her return from a 230-day break.
Verdict: Love Envoi has a clear favourites chance but provided the ground isn’t too soft I’m going with the race fit Homme Public who looks to be going the right way.
London National (3:30)
At first glance I thought marathon handicap chase was between Revels Hill and dual course winner Deise Aba who has never been out of the first two at the track. After a deeper look I realised that might not be the case.
Given Revels Hill needs 3m+. His 3 ½ length 2nd of 13 to Your Darling on his seasonal return at Ascot (2m 5f) 15-days ago was very encouraging. The 7-year-old had ended last season with two wins at Taunton. He looks like a young handicap chaser on the up and can be competitive in better staying chases this season.
Deise Aba’s record at the track is excellent. Beside his two successes he was beaten a nose in last year’s race, from 2lb lower, and the 9-year-old was beaten just a head by Le Milos (3m) in February off today’s mark. He’s gone well off a lay off in the past and this has likely been the plan.
Of the rest In Rem shapes like he could improve for the step up to marathon trips and is on workable mark if he does. The first time cheekpieces go on and if he they have the desired effect he can go well.
Eclair De Guye was a 7-length 3rd of 10 in last year’s race and can race off 7lb lower this time around. He’s none to consistent but goes well fresh and is on a good mark.
Quick Wave put in a career best over fences when running out an impressive winner at Ludlow in January. A 7lb rise might not stop her and she goes well off a lay off. However, her very best form has come on soft/heavy ground which she’s not going to get here.
Verdict: I like Revels Hill but at 15/8 I can let him win. At the prices I prefer the claims of course specialist Deise Aba and last year’s third Eclair De Guye
Aintree
Boylesports Many Clouds Chase (1:30)
Just the six go to post for this Grade 2 Chase but it has the potential to be one of the races of the day as all six have claims.
Ahoy Senor, two from two at Aintree including the Grade 1 Novices Chase over C&D in April heads the betting. It’s a no excuses day for the 7-year-old who ran poorly on his seasonal reappearance in the Charlie Hall Chase. This is his track; he gets his ground and if he gets into a good jumping rhythm, he’ll be tough to beat.
Ease in the ground is ideal for Dashel Drasher. He gets 3lb form Ahoy Senor and won’t allow the favourite an easy time out in front. Yet to race beyond 2m 6f but I reckon he’ll stay 3m.
Sounds Russian showed his well-being when winning a competitive Kelso handicap chase in October. He’s a progressive young chaser who could be up to graded class this season.
Course and Distance winner Sam Brown and Grand National winner Noble Yeats also have solid claims on official ratings. The latter could well emerge as a genuine Gold Cup contender if he was to win this.
Chantry House has a penalty to carry for a Grade 2 success last season. However, he’s well suited to small fields and on a going day wouldn’t be far away.
Verdict: If Ahoy Senor is back to his best he will be tough to beat. At the prices I’m torn between Sounds Russian and Noble Yeats here. I really like the former and he just gets the vote in what could be a cracking renewal of the race.
Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase (2:05)
Twenty three were left in the Becher at final declarations, which makes it the most competitive race of the day, if not the weekend. Thirteen of the 23 are separated by just 4lb on my ratings which underlines just how competitive it is.
Gesskille a winner of three of his first four starts for the yard improved again in defeat when a nose 2nd of 14 here in the Grand Sefton Chase (2m 5f) last month. Sep up in trip should suit and he’s a worthy favourite.
Ashtown Lad bids to give trainer Dan Skelton another big handicap chase success. The 8-year-old ran well for a long way when 5th of 23 in Scottish Grand National at Ayr last season and made a promising return to action over hurdles here last month.
De Rasher Counter, not the horse that won the Coral Gold Cup in 2019 but has returned to action this season suggesting he retains plenty of ability. Travelled and jumped nicely enough when a solid 2nd of 10 at Warwick in veterans chase last time.
Dr Kananga ended last season looking a progressive staying handicap chaser. A three time winner over fences, the 8-year-old made a respectable seasonal return when 2nd of 5 over hurdles at Bangor 24-days ago. Should be spot on fitness wise today and high on the shortlist if the ground is soft enough.
Snow Leopardess won this race 12 months ago from 6lb lower. Rider lost his irons at the first and the mare was quickly pulled up on here Warwick reappearance 17-days ago. Capable of another big run.
Hill Sixteen was runner-up in this race 12 months ago. The 9-year-old ran with credi0 on seasonal reappearance when a 6-length 3rd of 10 to Sounds Russian at Kelso 6 weeks ago. A thorough stayer he looks set for another bold bid over the National fences.
Fantastikas a winner at Lingfield in January on heavy, from 1lb lower, needs to jump better than when 6th of 11 on seasonal return at Cheltenham 17-days ago. If he does, he looks competitively handicapped for a yard that won this in 2012 & 2017.
Percussion twice a winner in the spring the 7-year-old maintained his progression over fences when an 8 length 3rd of 14 here in the Grand Sefton Chase last time. Has eight lengths to find with Gesskille on that running but he’s better off at the wights today and is entitled to get closer to that one today.
Five Star Getaway isn’t the most obvious one but he’s a useful handicap chaser on his day. The 8-year-old shaped encouragingly enough when a 6-length 4th of 9 at Bangor over an inadequate 2n 4f last month. Not totally convinced about the fences for him nor the 3m 3f trip although he does stay 3m well enough.
Didero Vallis isn’t the most consistent of handicap chasers but was on a going day when a 3 ½ length 3rd of 20 in the Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the festival in March. Third of 12 at Exeter on seasonal return 13-days ago. Sixth in last year’s race but is 10lb lower this time around and is on winnable mark when everything clicks.
Verdict: Given the field size you can easily have three on your side and that’s what I intend to do here. Gesskille and Percussion ran well over the National fences last time and are big contenders. As is last year’s runner-up, Hill Sixteen. I’m slightly concerned that the ground won’t be soft enough for Dr Kananga but he’s one I like and can win a nice staying handicap chase this season.
The Aintree card concludes with a couple of competitive looking handicaps both of which are live on ITV.
Boylesports Daily Money Back 2nd Handicap Chase (2:40)
Riders Onthe Storm took advantage of the handicapper’s leniency when winning the Old Roan Chase over C&D last time. The form of that race has worked out well and although he’s 2lb higher he remains nicely treated on the best of his back form.
Gunsight Ridge made it 2-6 over fences when winning here (2m) last month. He’s only 4lb higher here and remains with potential over fences and for the step up to 2m 4f.
Empire Steel is a useful handicapper, but his best form has come on more testing ground than is likely today.
Knight In Dubai has been lightly raced since March 2020. A solid enough 1 ¼ length 2nd of 9 at Bangor on seasonal return 24-days ago. The 9-year-old seems to have been given a chance by the handicapper and is one for the shortlist.
Clan Legend has won this race for the last two seasons and can race off 3lb lower this time around. The 12-year-old shaped with plenty of encouragement when 2nd of 6 at Ayr on his return to action last month. Softer ground would be preferred and he’s vulnerable to younger legs.
Top-weight Brave Seasca rattled off a hat trick of chase wins on his first season over fences. Took a heavy fall in the Arkle Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen in action. Back in handicap company is more suitable but the 7-year-old is unproven beyond 2m 1f.
Coopers Cross, a progressive handicap chaser, made a winning return to action when beating six rivals in a handicap chase at Carlisle 44-days ago. He’s been raised 8lb for that Carlisle success, but he’s only had six starts over the larger obstacles and we likely haven’t seen the best of the 7-year-old just yet.
Verdict: You can’t rule out veteran Clan Legend winning this for a third successive year, but he would prefer more testing ground. Knight In Dubai looks well handicapped and C&D winner Riders Onthe Storm remains on a competitive mark. Preference though is for the progressive Coopers Cross who is capable of more improvement over fences.
Boylesports Extra Places Daily Handicap Hurdle (3:15)
Benson is talented but very quirky. Completely lost his way for his previous yard but has finished runner-up on both starts since joining Sandy Thomson. Can’t be ruled out with Bryan Hughes an interesting jockey booking.
Harbour Lake gained a fourth success over hurdles when winning at Market Rasen (2m 4f) on seasonal return. A fair 3rd of 13 in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham back at 2m ½ f. Although ultimately well beaten he didn’t have the pace of the pair that finished in front of him but the return to 2m 4f is a plus.
Langer Dan runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in the 2021 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham was bought down at the second in this year’s race but gained compensation when winning over C&D in April. Will be all the better for his 3rd of 4 to Dashel Drasher here 28-days ago Very much in the mix back in handicap company.
Walking On Air looked like a smart prospect when winning a Newbury novice hurdle debut in January. Jumped poorly and never looked happy in Grade 1 company over C&D in April. That race probably came too early in his career and the 5-year-old remains capable of better with racing.
Trainer Ollie Murphy won this last year and in 2017 so his runner Hardi Du Mesnil must be respected. A winner when trained in France he ran a promising race when an 11 length 2nd of 13 to Peking Rose at Newbury on stable debut last December. Must be respected on handicap debut given the trainers record in the race.
Verdict: Harbour Lake will be suited by the return to 2m 4f and I think he can see off C&D winner Langer Dan and the potentially smart Walking On Air.
Fairyhouse
EasyFix Equine Handicap Chase (12:42 –
I like the claims of Cayd Bay in this Grade B handicap chase run over 2m 1f. The 7-year-old a dual winner over hurdles has yet to win any of his three starts over fences but he ran well on both novice chase starts last season finishing one place in front of one of today’s rivals Mt Leinster (11lb better off with that one today) at Wexford and then finished a 6 length 3rd of 14 to the useful Blue Lord here over 2m 12 months ago. Back over fences he ran a useful sort in Impervious to 2 ½ lengths at Wexford on his seasonal reappearance 33-days ago. Whether he want softer ground than yielding I’m not sure, but I thought he could give his backers a good run for their money. However, the bookies are taking no chances. I was hoping for 6/1, so a best priced 3/1 makes no appeal to me and I can happily let him win at those sort of odds.
Betting Advice:
Sandown
2:20 – Homme Public – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Bet365
3:30 – Deise Aba – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Bet365 and Eclair De Guye – 1pt win – 13/2 @ Bet365
Aintree
1:30 – Sounds Russian – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Coral
2:05 – Gesskille – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365, Dr Kananga – 1pt win – 14/1 @ Bet365 and Percussion – 1pt win – 20/1 @ Coral
2:40 – Coopers Cross – 1pt win – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
3:15 – Harbour Lake – 1pt win – 11/2 @ Bet365
I will be back tomorrow with a Sunday preview which will cover the best of the action from Fairyhouse, Huntingdon and Kelso.
Cheers
John