Hi all,
Not a bad card at Kempton for a Monday afternoon and I have a handful of selections from that meeting and one from Musselburgh. Today’s betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Kempton
1:50 – Come On Gruff made it 2-5 over hurdles when winning a Ludlow handicap hurdle in March. He was down the field on his seasonal return at Worcester but was likely in need of the run and should be sharper here.
2:20 – A very intriguing and competitive 2m 4 ½ f handicap chase. Scene Not Herd made a good start to his chase career, winning his first three starts last autumn and jumping well for a novice. Disappointed on soft ground when 4th of 6 to Killer Kane at Sandown in March. He remains capable of doing better than he showed last time.
Le Cameleon twice a winner over fences last season the 7-year-old returned action looking better than ever when winning at Warwick last month. Up 5lb but the runner-up has gone in since and the first two pulled nicely clear of the third. Trainer’s horses have hit form in the past week and are 4-14 29% +7.50 with their runners at Kempton.
Not sure what to make of the Venetia Williams trained Haut Folin. The 5-year-old is having his first start for the trainer but won two of his six starts when trained in France. With both those wins coming on very soft ground. He could be well treated for his British debut, or he may not. It will be interesting to see if the market speaks in his favour.
Striking A Pose didn’t really build on the promise of his seasonal return win on chase debut at Exeter last November. However, we at least know he goes well fresh. The 6-year-old should be capable of winning again this season. Can go close if the ground doesn’t prove too quick for the 6-year-old.
Dorking Lad won two handicap chases last season and finished one place and 1 length in front of Scene Not Herd behind Killer Kane at Sandown on his hat track bid. Looked rusty when a 10 ½ length 3rd of 10 here (2m2f) on his seasonal return 14-days ago. Return to 2m 4f is a plus and the 7-year-old is another who should be in the mix.
2:55 – Just three have been declared for this Listed contest. Mind you just 4lb separates the three mares’ on official ratings. Molly Ollys Wishes and Martello Sky fought out a driving finish in a similar race at Wetherby last month with Molly Ollys Wishes getting the better of the argument by 1 ¼ lengths. Martello Sky might just have needed the run more than the winner and I wouldn’t be surprised if she revered places with the winner today. Miranda gets 6lb from Molly Ollys Wishes and races in the first time cheekpieces. She’s the best treated at the weights of the three runners but does have to prove her stamina for 3m.
3:25 – Lightly Squeeze an excellent 3 ¼ length 3rd of 17 in the valuable Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot (2m) in December 2020. Not in the same form on four starts since. Back from a break and has returned to previous Harry Fry. The handicapper has given the 8-year-old a chance as he’s 7lb lower than in the Ascot race.
Swaffham Bulbeck useful enough hurdler at is best. A solid enough effort when a 5 length 3rd of 6 at Huntingdon on his seasonal reappearance 13-days ago. He’s been dropped 1lb and Caoilin Quinn is a good booking in this sort of race. Yard struggling for winners which is a concern.
American Gerry took advantage of s strong pace to come from the rear to win over C&D in April. Not weighted out of this despite a 9lb rise in the weights but others may be better positioned in what could be a slowly run race.
Grivetana a hurdle winner in France last December. The mare put in a low key performance on first start for Paul Nicholls a month later but returned to winning ways at Chepstow in March. Has improved on her first two starts in handicap company including when a 6 length 2nd of 7 to Herbiers on her seasonal return at Newbury 18-days ago. Might need further than 2m on good ground but shouldn’t be far away.
Musselburgh
3:35 – Trainer Nick Alexander has his horse in winning form, and I like the claims of his runner Arnica here. Granted he’s an 11 race maiden over hurdles but he’s lightly raced for a 9-year-old and put up one of his better efforts when a 2 length 2nd of 12 over C&D, from 3lb higher, in January 2021. Just had one run last season and has a 394-day absence to overcome here but if he’s ready to roll I can see him going close.
Betting Advice:
Kempton
1:50 – Come On Gruff – 1pt win – 5/1 @ Bet365.
2:20 – Scene Not Herd – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365 and Le Cameleon – 1pt win – 9/2 @ Bet365
Musselburgh
3:35 – Arnica – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365 & Coral
That’s me done until Friday and the start of two days of racing at Newbury. Let’s hope I can sign off with a winner after a disappointing Sunday.
Cheers
John