Hi all,
My final selections for October. Not for the first time a poor start to the month has been compensated by a very strong end.
The Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (2.30) is the highlight of a seven race card at Carlisle. The race has got an excellent roll of honour with the likes of Many Clouds, Waiting Patiently, Lostintranslation (2019) and Fiddlerontheroof all winning the past decade. This year’s renewal looks fascinating with a mixture of second season chasers and a couple making their debut over fences.
Carlisle
Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase (2.30)
Corach Rambler had an excellent 2021-22 ending last season with a win in the Grade Three Ultima Handicap Chase (3m 1f) at the Cheltenham Festival. Whether a drop down to 2m 4f will be enough of a stamina test I’m not sure. The Coral Gold Cup at Newbury is the 8-year-old’s major early season target, and this run should put him spot on for that assignment.
Milers Bank didn’t get further than the first in the Old Roan Chase on his seasonal debut last Sunday. His jumping has become a bit of a concern though. Sunday’s mishap means he’s unseated his rider three times on his last six starts. This is his trip and when he does put it all together, he’s a very good chaser.
Just two horses have run in the race on their chase debut since 2008. This season we have two contenders making their first start over the larger obstacles Bear Ghylls & Beauport.
Bear Ghylls hasn’t been seen since finishing 4th of 7 to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival. He’s won fresh in the past, so the absence probably won’t be an issue. It won’t be easy against more experienced chasers but he’s very much a chaser in the making.
Beauport developed into smart handicap hurdler at 2m 4f + last season finishing runner-up on his first three starts last season before winning at Uttoxeter in March. The 6-year-old is another exciting novice chase prospect. He will probably prove better over further but will win his share of races.
Add in Donald McCain’s talent second season chaser Minella Drama and we have the makings of a good contest.
Rest of the card
Besides the Colin Parker there are some interesting handicaps on the card.
Gordon Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (1:25)
All bar three of the thirteen runners are making their debut over fences. There should be plenty of future winners to come out of the race.
Iron Bridge is unbeaten on his three starts in bumper/hurdles. He goes well fresh and looks the type to better over the larger obstacles. His trainer Jonjo O’Neill won this race last year and is a healthy 6 winners from 23 runners 26% +21.56 with his runners over fences at the track in the past 5-years.
Harper’s Brook won a novice hurdle on his seasonal return 12 months ago and ended the campaign with a win at Ffos Las. Like Iron Bridge he seems likely to better over fences than hurdles.
Viva Lavilla is another interesting recruit to chasing. He won first time up last season and returns for the first time since breathing operation.
Bold Endeavour did well over hurdles last season, winning two of his four starts, including the first two. Another with potential to do well over the larger obstacles.
Grey Skies has just had three starts since joining Donald McCain winning his first two over hurdles. First start over regulation fences but the 6-year-old did win a point in Ireland last December.
Nick Alexander saddles two in Half Track & Donny Boy. With the latter the stable pick. The 6-year-old has the potential to win races over fences this season. The trainer said after he won a maiden hurdle at Newcastle in December that the 6-year-old could be one of the best he’s trained. Yard had a treble at Ayr on Saturday.
No Regrets is returning from a 562 day layoff on chase debut. The 8-year-old should win over fences if retaining his old ability, but this looks a tough ask. Nicky Richards yard has his runners in great form and the race is named after his father.
DMB Building Ltd Handicap Hurdle (3:05)
Good Risk At All impressed and had plenty in hand when winning a handicap hurdle at Ascot in February. Struggled in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree on final start. Looks a worthy favourite back in calmer waters here and has the potential to do better this season.
Wholestone returned from 455-day layoff to win a Grade 2 Hurdle at Haydock in February. The 11-year-old probably had a hard race that day as he pulled up on two subsequent starts over fences & hurdles in the spring. Capable of a good run fresh though.
Silver Hallmark, a winner over both fences and hurdles, hasn’t been the easiest to train amd struggled on three starts over fences last season. Off a lower mark returned to hurdles and can’t be dismissed on his first start February.
Navajo Pass a useful hurdler two season back but struggled for form on five starts last season. Bounced back to form when winning a heavy ground handicap on the flat at Haydock 16-days ago. That should have restored the 6-year-old’s confidence if nothing else. Looks well treated back over hurdles being 21lb lower than at the start of last season. On soft ground he looks the biggest threat to the favourite.
Dowson Blades Cumberland Handicap Chase (3:40)
Houston Texas made it 2-2 at Carlisle when winning over C&D (soft) in February. Steadily progressive over fences last season and can do better this season. The Nicky Richards yard is good form and Houston Texas looks set for a good run.
Rath An Iuir looked a progressive staying handicap chaser when winning twice here in November 2020. Four starts last season after returning from a 399-day break were underwhelming. A few questions to answer on his seasonal return but his trainer has started the autumn in winning form and he’s got a decent record fresh.
Niceandeasy made it 2-4 over fences when winning a handicap chase at Ayr on his final start. The 8-year-old starts this season off 4lb higher. Could have more to offer over fences this season. Suited by soft ground and could go well if fully tuned up his return to action.
Mount Melleray is a maiden after four starts over fences but has finished runner-up on three of them including when a short head 2nd of 5 to Houston Texas over C&D in February. Weighted to go close if ready roll first time.
Both Morning Spirit and Secret Reprieve are capable of big runs. The first named has some useful handicap chase form and this looks his trip. He’s only had four starts over fences and is a workable mark. Secret Reprieve won the 2021 Welsh Grand National but didn’t run well on either start last season including when a well beaten fifth in last season’s Welsh Grand National. The top-weight returns to action with a big drop in class. Might need the run but has the class to win this if fit enough.
Betting Advice:
Carlisle
1:20 – Donny Boy – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365
3:40 – Mount Melleray – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook and Rath An Iuir -1pt win – 5/1 @ & Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook
I will be back later in the week.
Cheers
John