WAnother couple of winners for the eyecatcher at Sandown on Friday on top of Captain Redbeard’s surprise win at Kelso on Thursday.
If last week was supposed to be Super Saturday at Newbury. It must be super Ascot this Saturday as the racecourse hosts a bumper card of nine races including the Betfair Hurdle & Demnan Chase that have been rescheduled from last week’s cancelled Newbury fixture. Add in good cards at Haydock and Wincanton and it’s a fest of racing for punters to enjoy. I will begin this preview at Ascot.
Saturday 16th February
Ascot
1:00 – A Class 2 handicap over 2m 3 ½ f.
Cloudy Glen, looks sure to be popular looking for the hat trick after wins Haydock & Chepstow.
Tight Call, was runner-up at Wincanton last month. This is a better race and he’s up 5lb but he looks on a winnable mark. The drier the ground the better for this 5-year-old.
Air Horse One, winner of this race in 2016 and runner-up in similar handicap hurdle in January 2017, off 7lb higher is temptingly handicapped on his back form and surely has each way claims at a track he goes well at. He comes into the race on the back off a second placed effort at Taunton 28-days ago.
Darling Maltaix, won here over 2f further back in December on soft. The 6-year-old wasn’t disgraced when finishing 5th of 14 in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last month. Another with each way claims.
Sussex Ranger, was my fancy for the Betfair Hurdle. Interesting to see trainer Gary Moore has re-routed the 5-year-old to this race.
Umndeni, trained by Philip Hobbs, make his handicap debut after a comfortable Fontwell maiden hurdle 20-days ago. He’s another who needs respecting with Richard Johnson in the saddle again.
Master Blueyes, trained by the very much inform Alan King 3 winners from 7 runners 43% in the past 14-days, returns from a 701-day absence. He was formerly a decent hurdler and his form figures over hurdles on a right-handed track are 2211. Trainer is 0 winners from 52 runners 13 placed 25% with his NH handicappers returning from a 365+day layoff.
Verdict: Seven of the 11 declared runners underlines how competitive a puzzle this race. I will just go for Air Horse One and Dancing Maltaix.
Air Horse One – 7/1 @ William Hill
Dancing Maltaix – 8/1 @ William Hill & Bet365
2:10 – Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) – 3m
Just eight go to post for the valuable handicap.
Reikers Island seems a better horse going right handed and he was impressive when winning at Wincanton two starts back before a brave effort when 4th of 10 in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury. The drop back to 3m should suit as will the drying ground. Big player here.
Coneygree might be a 12-year-old but the former Gold Cup winner but up a bold show when 3rd of 14 in a valuable Cheltenham handicap chase back in November. Ran poorly in the King George VI on his next start but a reproduction of his Cheltenham run makes him a big contender. He’s surely to big at the 7/1 available with William Hill.
Regal Encore, always needs respecting at Ascot as he’s 2 wins from 5 runs over C&D and won this race last year off 2lb lower. This year’s race looks tougher but he won’t be far away if in the same form as 12 months ago.
Coneygree – 13/2 @ William Hill
Regal Encore – 8/1 @ Coral
3:20 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) – 1m 7 ½ f
As the 2009 renewal was cancelled due to the weather. I am looking at some of the key trends for the last nine running’s of the race – 9 winners from 184 runners 35 placed. Here are some of the headline stats both positive and negative:
Age: 5-& 6-year olds: 9 winners from 112 runners 27 placed
Last Time Out Placing: 1st 2nd or 3rd: 9 winners from 95 runners 26 placed
Class Move: Same, Up 1 & Up 2: – 0 winners from 89 runners 8 placed
For a big field handicap favourites have a good record in the race 4 winners from 11 runners 36% +11.75 7 placed 64%
So, you need to have a strong case to back horses older than six or that finished outside the first three on their last start.
Not surprisingly two novices head the ante-post betting: Al Dancer and Getaway Trump. Thelatter may turn out to need further than the minimum trip to be at his best. But I think the Paul Nicholls trained 6-year-old could well go off favourite and if he does it’s worth noting the form figures of favourites in the race with the following traits:
Age: 5yo or 6yo
Handicap Hurdle Debutant
Last Time Out Finishing Position: 1st or 2nd
4 winners from 5 runners 80% +17.75 5 placed 100%. (form figures of 11411)
Of the rest the Nick Gifford trained, Didtheyleaveyououtoo will appreciate the drier ground he’s 2 wins from 2 runs on good ground and also 2 from 2 here at Ascot. Given the form of the Alan King horses his runner Lisp has to come into the reckoning. The 4-year-old was runner-up in a valuable C&D handicap before Christmas. He’s up 5lb for that effort but he’s progressive and won’t be far away.
Verdict: The claims of Al Dancer & Getaway Trump are obvious and I just prefer the latter and I can also see Lisp running well for Alan King.
Getaway Trump – 3/1 @ Ladbrokes & Bet365
Lisp – 8/1 @ Ladbrokes & Coral
Haydock
1:25 – Trainer Ruth Jefferson is 2 wins from 3 runners 67% +19.00 with her runners here since she took over the licence from her late father. I am happy to take a chance with her runner Mega Yeats. The mare was runner-up in a listed Cheltenham bumper back in November and made a winning start to her hurdle debut at Wetherby back in December.
2:25 – A competitive looking novices handicap chase. But C&D winner Scorpion Sid is 1 from 2 since going over fences. That win came on soft ground but he’s an improving novice chaser.
2:55 – I am not a big fan of these Pertemps Series qualifiers from a betting perspective. Emma Lavelle’s hurdlers at the track always need respecting, as she’s 5 winners from 12 runners 42% +26 in such races in the past 5-years. The trainer saddles Down The Highway her only runner here today. You couldn’t rule out a big run from Lamanver Odyssey. The mare was first past the post here in March last year of today’s mark, when with former trainer Harry Fry. She’s had two runs for new trainer Jack Barber and she didn’t shape to badly when 5th of 12 at Hereford 63-days ago. Stamina for 3m+ to prove but is a contender if she stays.
At the time of writing the bookies have yet to price up the above three races!
3:35 – William Hill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 3m 4 ½ f
When I looked at this race for my Monday Daily Punt column the going was heavy and now it’s good to soft due to the recent sunny and mild weather. The whole complexion of the race has changed in a few days.
Impulsive Star, relished the good ground when landing the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick last month. He’s up 6lb here but he looks on the upgrade over fences. Trainer form is a slight concern but the 9-year-old looks capable of going well again.
Bishop’s Road’s, form figures at Haydock are 132, including a win over C&D. He’s got an 8lb pull for a 2 ¾ defeat by Red Infantry here back in November. Capable of bold run and is clearly well-handicapped on his best form.
Robinsfirth, was a recent eyecatcher when runner-up to Wakanda here in the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase 28-days ago and he’s a big contender here. Trainer Colin Tizzard has gone 19 days and 18 runners since his last win which is a concern. A big positive is the booking of jockey Sean Bowen who rides the course really well having had 9 winners from 27 rides 33% +24 14 placed 52% including, 5 winners from 11 rides 45% +19 6 placed 55% over fences. Despite trainer form has to be on the shortlist.
Two Amigos, is one of my favourite staying handicap chasers. The 7-year-old is 1211 over fences and last time out made all to win Plumpton’s Sussex National. He’s a good jumper who remains on the upgrade but has an 8lb weight rise to overcome. Although his win at Plumpton came on good to soft his trainer suggested after the race that he would prefer softer ground. Each way claims if the going has dried out too much.
Ah Littleluck, shouldn’t be underestimated for Irish trainer Thomas Gibney. The 9-year-old got a deserved win when winning a Navan beginner’s chase 28-days ago. He looks a stayer and capable of more improvement for today’s longer trip. Shouldn’t have any issues with the going as it was similar when he won at Navan.
Pobbles Bay, is an interesting contender for Evan Williams who shouldn’t be discounted despite his recent form. The 9-year-old remains unexposed over staying distances. Leighton Aspell has been booked for the ride and he has a good record when teaming up with the trainer – 11 winners from 32 runners 34% +39.24 A/E 1.86 17 placed 53% (+51.10) including, 7 winners from 18 runners 39% +41.38 A/E 3.08 11 placed 61% (+57.02) in handicaps.
Verdict: I have to play Robinsfirth despite the trainer’s recent form. Two Amigos needs more improvement but could find it. At each way prices Bishop’s Road, Ah Littleluck and Pobbles Bay are capable of running well.
Robinsfirth – 8/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes
Pobbles Bay – 14/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Ah Littleluck – 18/1 @ William Hill – each way – (paying 5 places 1/5 odds)
Wincanton
4:05 – Kerrow – Alan King doesn’t send many chasers to Wincanton and he’s a handy 3 winners from 10 runners 30% +10 with such runners in the past five years. His runners are going well since the recent break. Kerrow pulled up at Cheltenham on his last start but prior to that had gone well at Bangor, coming down at the last when just taking a slight lead. No problem with the 64-day absence as his seasonal reappearance at Bangor was off a 610-day break and he’s just 4lb higher than at Bangor. Capable of winning this!
At the time of writing the bookies have yet to price up this race.
Always check with an odds comparison service like Oddschecker to get the best prices available
All selections win only unless indicated as each way.
Selections for Sunday will be sent by another e-mail.
Good luck with your bets.