Hi all,
Spangled Mac flew down the outside but failed by a head at Wolverhampton on Thursday evening. It was so frustrating as a stride after the line the 3-year-old was in front. It’s fine margins in this game.
Cheltenham is back on Friday with day one of its Showcase Meeting. Besides Cheltenham there’s the first of two days of flat racing at Doncaster and Newbury and there’s the Group 3 Mercury Stakes (7:30) at Dundalk. So, there’s plenty of decent action over both codes.
I haven’t quite got my National Hunt hat on yet and it’s probably wise to tread carefully punting wise for the next couple of weeks. That said I have a few fancies for the jumps racing over the next three days.
In today’s preview I have had a look at four races at Cheltenham and a handful of races at Doncaster and Newbury. My betting advice can be found at the end of the main piece.
Cheltenham
The heavy rain that hit the north of the UK seems to have bypassed Cheltenham as the going is still being described as good to firm, good in places. It’s supposed to be wet tomorrow though with 8mm of rain forecast for the track.
1:35 – Showcasing Sustainability Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m ½ f
Since 2016 trainer Fergal O’Brien has had 8 winners from 37 runners 22% +36.96 16 placed 43%. It’s clearly a meeting he likes to target. Two of his eight winners have come in this race including last year. He runs two in this year’s race Castel Gandolfo & Elham Valley. Both have C&D form and come into the race after runs last month. The former is on a losing run but ran well in a better race at Market Rasen. Elham Valley was a winner at Newton Abbot two starts back and showed he remained in form when runner-up at Stratford last time.
Lively Citizen’s form figures at Cheltenham are 121P. You can draw a line through his last run here as his saddled slipped. The 7-year-old needs respecting but this is first run since April, and he may just need it.
3:20 – 888Sport Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 2m 4f
Just the five runners but Fergal O’Brien has another interesting contender here in Pull Again Green. The 6-year-old ended last season with good ground novice hurdle wins at Newbury and here. He should make a chaser and could make a winning debut over the larger obstacles. The trainer has said that he probably won’t run if the ground is good to firm.
3:55 – Abu Dhabi Digital Exchange Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) – 2m 4f
Course favourite Coole Cody returns to action here, but you have to think this is a prep for next month’s Paddy Power Handicap Chase.
Fergal O’Brien saddles Onagatheringstorm who was a 2 ½ length 2nd of 9 to Sporting John here over 3m last November in a better race. This is his first start since February but he’s had a wind-op and goes well on a sound surface.
There are several Irish challengers among the 13 declared runners. The best of who could be the Thomas Gibney trained Listentillitellyea who has been running well in handicap hurdles across the Irish Sea this summer and goes well on a sound surface.
Lucinda Russell brings Aurora Thunder on the long journey down from Scotland. The 8-year-old hasn’t been out of the first two in Class 3 company and this his ideal distance. Any ease in the ground would be welcome though as he’s 0-10, 5 placed on good ground and all three career wins have come with soft in the going description.
4:30 – Andrew Malam Lifetime In Racing Award Winner Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 1f
Go On Chez has looked a progressive chaser over the summer on a sound surface. Fell at the 7th at Kempton five days ago and if the 6-year-old is none the worse for that mishap should go well here for an inform yard.
Christian Williams saddled Strictlyadancer to win this race 12 months ago. He relies on Powerful Position this time around. The 7-year-old won four times last season and likely needed the run after a six month absence when 2nd of 3 to a handicap ‘good thing’ at Chepstow two weeks ago.
Our old friend Fergal O’Brien has won this race twice since 2016 and he saddles Huntsmans Jog. The 7-year-old remains a maiden after seven starts over fences. He’s got something to prove after a couple of lesser runs last season but did well last autumn and went close on his seasonal reappearance last October.
Doncaster
The rain hit Doncaster on Thursday turning the ground soft and a bit more rain is forecast on Friday.
The field sizes haven’t held up for Doncaster’s two Class 2 handicaps. Dakota Gold isn’t the most consistent of horses these days. However, this formerly smart sprinter did take advantage of some leniency of the handicapper to win at York in May and he was back to form after a couple of disappointing performances when a 1 ¾ length 4th of 19 back his beloved York last time. Has won over C&D in the past and could go well in the 6f handicap (3:30).
Newbury
It’s good to soft, soft in places at Newbury but the track could see a further 9mm on Friday which would see the ground go soft all over. More rain than forecast could even see it get close to heavy.
There are a couple of interesting Class 3 handicaps on an eight race card which gets underway at 12:50.
3:45 – Final Watch finished 2nd of 18 in last year’s race on heavy ground. Bounced back to winning ways when beating 14 rivals at Ascot three weeks ago. That took the 4-year-old’s form figures in 7f turf handicaps to 11221. Up 4lb for his Ascot success but he comes into the fresher than most, just his 4th start of the season and looks set for another good run here.
Fresh Hope improved when winning over 7f at Newcastle two starts back. Not quite as good back at that venue when 4th of 13 last time but shaped like a mark of 87 might not be beyond her. All her turf form has come on good to firm ground though so soft ground asks another question of the 3-year-old.
Mount Kosciuszko has been in excellent form since the fitting of the blinkers this summer but put in a lesser effort when only 4th of 7 at Nottingham two starts back. Quickly bounced back to his best when an unlucky in the run head 2nd of 9 at Brighton 8-days ago. Back up in class here but can race off the same mark as at Brighton and goes on well on rain softened ground.
4:20 – We have three previous winners in the line-up for this 6f handicap. Louie De Palma (2011), Punchbowl Flyer (2020) and Bernardo O’Reilly (2018).
The ground can’t be testing enough for Punchbowl Flyer. He’s been out of sorts this season but only got his ground for the first time when 6th of 12 at Haydock 7-days ago. He’s dropped down to a tempting mark and could easily pop up here with his yard among the winners.
Bernardo O’Reilly doesn’t win very often but he popped up on seasonal return at Doncaster in March off 3lb lower. Caught the eye when a staying on 3 ¼ length 3rd of 25 in Ayr’s Silver Cup last time. He is likely to get his optimum conditions and was good second in this last year.
Louie De Palma had Bernardo O’Reilly ¾ length back in second when winning last year’s race (heavy) and can meet his old rival on 3lb better terms here. Off for nine months and probably needed run when a 4 length 6th of 14 at Salisbury 22-days ago. Even as 10-year-old can’t be totally dismissed.
Gisburn hasn’t won since winning on heavy ground at this meeting 12 months ago. Although without a win this season the 3-year-old has run several good races. And has been back to something like his best on his last two starts returned to 6f. Found trouble in the run between the final two furlongs when 3 length 6th of 19 in a better race at York. Once in the clear he finished best of all and must be high on the shortlist. If getting the breaks, he will be tough to beat.
Dundalk
7:30 – Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Pat Smullen Mercury Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
The front five in the betting are separated by just 3lb on Official Ratings which shows what a competitive race it is. In fact, it’s arguably the race of the day.
English challenger Manaccan just heads the betting. An improving sprinter who won a Doncaster Listed race last month before finishing a neck 3rd of 12 to Mitbaahy in a Group 3 and then won again in Listed company at Ascot last time. He could prove to be a Group 1 sprinter at 5f next season.
Next in the betting is the Paddy Twomey trained Erosandpsyche. The 4-year-old was a winner twice in July/August. He improved again when nose 2nd of 10 to Tees Spirit in a Tipperary Listed race and then produced a career best when a 3¼ length 2nd of 19 to Highfield Princess in the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh last time. Back in this company should go well.
Neither of the top in the betting have form on the all-weather and indeed Manaccan is making his all-weather debut.
The next three in the betting finished first, second and third over C&D last month. The Highway Rat took his Dundalk record to 5 wins from 8 starts when winning that race. One of those wins came in this race last year. Looks set for another big run but this looks like a stronger renewal and he’s likley to face pace pressure here. Logo Hunter was a nose back in second but that was the 4-year-old’s first start for 4 months so he might be sharper with that run under his belt. Harry’s Bar was a neck back in third. The conditions of the race meant he was giving 4lb to the pair who finished in front of him. An all-weather specialist who loves it around here winning six of his ten starts around. He was only 4th in this last year behind The Highway Rat but that was a muddling race, and a very strong pace is forecast this evening which will suit him much better.
Verdict: A likely strong pace will suit Harry’s Bar better than 12 months ago. You must respect last year’s winner The Highway Rat but I wouldn’t be surprised if Logo Hunter was to finish in front of him this time. Erosandpsyche is sure to go close if reproducing his run behind Highfield Princess in Group 1 company. Manaccan is unproven on the surface but is going the right way and a strong pace up front will really suit him.
Betting Advice:
I have selections from Cheltenham and Newbury
Cheltenham
1:35 – Castel Gandolfo – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365 and Elham Valley – 1pt win – 15/2 @ Bet365
3:55 – Onagatheringstorm – 1pt win – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes
4:30 – Powerful Position – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365 and Huntsmans Jog – 1pt win – 10/1 @ Bet365
Newbury
3:45 – Final Watch – 1pt win – 6/1 @ Bet365 and Mount Kosciuszko – 1pt win – 8/1 @ Bet365
4:20 – Bernardo O’Reilly – 1pt win – 12/1 @ Bet365
Cheers
John